Final
LIU 21 · UND 42
ML W
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUND to win logged
ours 96%
Our number: UND by 22.1 — UND to win.
Projected score
13–44
LIU – UND
2026-08-27 · 8:00 PM
Alerus Center · Grand Forks, ND
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
143 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #169 rush offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
189 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #241 pass offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
Run game
edge Long Island University Sharks
48 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense
Long Island University Sharks #72 run defense
Pass game
edge Long Island University Sharks
56 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense
Long Island University Sharks #17 pass defense
Long Island University Sharks
Run-heavy · 69% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Long Island University Sharks
LB
Rafael Fasolino
25 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#23 LB
DB
Ryan Maxwell
21 tkl · 2 PD
#57 DB
DL
Rodney Mills
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#145 DL
DL
Quay Wright
3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#343 DL
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P
Luke Silvernale
5 punts · 49.8 yd avg
#2 P
WR
Korey Tai
12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD
#30 WR
DB
Jonnie Wiltshire
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#89 DB
DL
Brody Thornton
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#114 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Long Island University offense vs North Dakota defense-12.4 pts
North Dakota offense vs Long Island University defense+15.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,254 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.