← Matchups

Samford

· 0-3 · power -17.0 · #359
Our numberUNA -9.7 no book has priced this game

North Alabama

· 1-2 · power -7.9 · #274
Final SAM 10 · UNA 22 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUNA to win logged ours 71%

Our number: UNA by 10.2 — UNA to win.

Projected score 21–30 SAM – UNA
2026-08-29 · 7:00 PM Joe Davis Stadium · Huntsville, AL · neutral Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Alabama Lions 68 ranks
Samford Bulldogs #263 rush offense North Alabama Lions #195 run defense
Pass game even 18 ranks apart
Samford Bulldogs #242 pass offense North Alabama Lions #260 pass defense
Run game edge North Alabama Lions 93 ranks
North Alabama Lions #125 rush offense Samford Bulldogs #218 run defense
Pass game even 18 ranks apart
North Alabama Lions #210 pass offense Samford Bulldogs #192 pass defense
Samford Bulldogs Pass-heavy · 39% run Ball-control North Alabama Lions Run-heavy · 63% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Samford Bulldogs
DB LaShon Young 21 tkl · 1 PD #53 DB
DB Jalen Nelson 25 tkl #101 DB
WR Marquise Henderson 9 rec · 218 yds · 1 TD #92 WR
LB Spencer Conn 23 tkl · 2.5 TFL #90 LB
North Alabama Lions
DB Tae Martin 23 tkl · 4 PD #11 DB
DL Avery Howard 17 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #20 DL
WR Xavier Johnson 19 rec · 386 yds · 2 TD #14 WR
DL Cayden Adkins 11 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #29 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Samford Bulldogs -17.0 -11.6 -5.4 #359
North Alabama Lions -7.9 -4.2 -3.7 #274

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Samford offense vs North Alabama defense-7.9 pts
North Alabama offense vs Samford defense+1.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.