BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

On the board
0 priced of 133
Median gap
—
Straight up
104–32
Model state
—
Wk 0 Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15
● Top projected winners 76% · 104-32 this season

The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.

Top projected winners ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
New Mexico
-17.3 · 86%
over Central Michigan
W 7–38
Cincinnati
-14.0 · 81%
over Boston College
W 15–34
James Madison
-13.3 · 79%
over Liberty
W 13–20
LSU
-13.2 · 79%
over Clemson
W 10–51
Colorado State
-12.7 · 78%
over Wyoming
L 13–35
Memphis
-12.7 · 78%
over Arkansas State
W 24–42
UCLA
-11.3 · 76%
over California
L 45–24
Duke
-10.4 · 74%
over Tulane
W 3–17
Top spread reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence

No game on this slate has a book spread to compare against yet.

Top total reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line

No game on this slate has a book total to compare against yet.

Top team totals our projected score against the book’s team total · 40 games priced this week
Fresno State
Over 13.5 · book 54%
ours 18.4 · vs USC
L 0–39
Oregon State
Over 13.5 · book 53%
ours 23.0 · vs Houston
W 20–33
Colorado State
Under 24.5 · book 53%
ours 31.7 · vs Wyoming
L 13–35
Wisconsin
Under 13.5 · book 53%
ours 14.6 · vs Notre Dame
W 13–41
Texas
Under 45.5 · book 53%
ours 40.5 · vs Texas State
L 7–59
Houston
Over 34.5 · book 53%
ours 34.3 · vs Oregon State
L 20–33
West Virginia
Under 38.5 · book 53%
ours 33.4 · vs Coastal Carolina
W 24–31
Iowa
Over 37.5 · book 53%
ours 36.3 · vs Northern Illinois
W 0–40
All games 133 Sheet Panels All games
KickoffMatchupDivOur side Our projectionMarket Best number (tap to add)
2026-09-036:00 PM L 37–21 ● Massachusetts @ Rutgers Piscataway, NJ FBS RUTG to winRUTG 66% 26–32 · 58.1 —
2026-09-036:00 PM W 24–75 Kentucky Christian @ Morehead State Morehead, KY NON-D1 FCS MORE to winMORE 88% 26–46 · 72.1 — no line
2026-09-037:00 PM W 6–73 Bethune-Cookman @ UCF Orlando, FL FCS FBS UCF to winUCF 98% 12–46 · 57.9 —
2026-09-037:00 PM W 16–38 ● Akron @ Wake Forest Winston-Salem, NC FBS WAKE to winWAKE 84% 21–36 · 57.0 —
2026-09-037:00 PM W 7–42 Merrimack @ Delaware Newark, DE FCS FBS DEL to winDEL 98% 11–43 · 53.6 —
2026-09-037:00 PM W 0–47 West Georgia @ Kennesaw State Kennesaw, GA FCS FBS KENN to winKENN 94% 12–38 · 50.9 —
2026-09-037:00 PM W 17–21 UAlbany @ Buffalo Buffalo, NY FCS FBS BUF to winBUF 84% 17–33 · 49.9 —
2026-09-037:00 PM W 32–36 Lindenwood @ Stony Brook Stony Brook, NY FCS STBK to winSTBK 59% 29–33 · 61.6 — no line
2026-09-037:00 PM W 22–18 Southern Illinois @ Samford Birmingham, AL FCS SIU to winSIU 86% 36–19 · 55.0 — no line
2026-09-038:00 PM W 14–54 Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouri Columbia, MO FCS FBS MIZ to winMIZ 99% 8–53 · 61.0 —
2026-09-038:00 PM L 14–13 ● Colorado @ Georgia Tech Atlanta, GA FBS GT to winCOLO 52% 26–25 · 51.0 —
2026-09-038:00 PM W 7–59 Eastern Illinois @ Minnesota Minneapolis, MN FCS FBS MINN to winMINN 97% 12–43 · 55.2 —
2026-09-039:00 PM W 14–66 Idaho @ Utah Salt Lake City, UT FCS FBS UTAH to winUTAH 99% 10–52 · 62.2 —
2026-09-039:00 PM W 23–42 ● UAB @ Illinois Champaign, IL FBS ILL to winILL 90% 19–40 · 59.3 —
2026-09-046:30 PM L 27–21 San José State @ Eastern Michigan Ypsilanti, MI FBS EMU to winSJSU 63% 30–24 · 54.3 —
2026-09-047:00 PM W 19–44 Indiana State @ Purdue West Lafayette, IN FCS FBS PUR to winPUR 97% 16–45 · 60.7 —
2026-09-047:00 PM W 10–59 North Carolina A&T @ Georgia State Atlanta, GA FCS FBS GAST to winGAST 98% 11–46 · 57.8 —
2026-09-047:00 PM L 18–27 Franklin Pierce @ Marist Poughkeepsie, NY NON-D1 FCS FRAN to winFRAN 59% 26–23 · 49.1 — no line
2026-09-048:00 PM W 0–51 ● UTEP @ Oklahoma Norman, OK FBS OU to winOU 96% 12–40 · 51.4 —
2026-09-048:00 PM W 6–51 Long Island University @ Kansas Lawrence, KS FCS FBS KU to winKU 98% 11–45 · 55.8 —
2026-09-048:00 PM W 20–30 ● Toledo @ Michigan State East Lansing, MI FBS MSU to winMSU 57% 26–28 · 54.0 —
2026-09-049:00 PM W 45–6 ● Miami @ Stanford Stanford, CA FBS MIA to winMIA 92% 40–17 · 57.2 —
2026-09-049:00 PM W 0–39 ● Fresno State @ USC Los Angeles, CA FBS USC to winUSC 86% 18–36 · 54.4 —
2026-09-0511:00 AM L 10–45 Webber International @ Stetson DeLand, FL NON-D1 FCS WEBB to winSTET 53% 28–29 · 56.9 — no line
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 10–48 ● East Carolina @ Alabama Tuscaloosa, AL FBS ALA to winALA 94% 16–41 · 56.8 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 20–33 ● Oregon State @ Houston Houston, TX FBS HOU to winHOU 76% 23–34 · 57.2 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 24–31 ● Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia Morgantown, WV FBS WVU to winWVU 69% 25–33 · 58.8 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 3–66 New Hampshire @ Syracuse Syracuse, NY FCS FBS SYR to winSYR 95% 16–43 · 58.4 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 16–52 ● North Texas @ Indiana Bloomington, IN FBS IU to winIU 82% 25–40 · 64.8 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 21–49 ● Ohio @ Nebraska Lincoln, NE FBS NEB to winNEB 83% 23–38 · 60.9 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 7–56 Lafayette @ UConn East Hartford, CT FCS FBS CONN to winCONN 95% 17–43 · 59.7 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 3–59 Bryant @ Army West Point, NY FCS FBS ARMY to winARMY 97% 11–41 · 52.0 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 20–13 Tarleton State @ Bowling Green Bowling Green, OH FCS FBS TAR to winBGSU 59% 25–28 · 52.8 —
2026-09-0512:00 PM L 21–3 Stonehill @ New Haven West Haven, CT FCS NHVN to winSTO 53% 26–24 · 50.3 — no line
2026-09-0512:00 PM L 7–31 Southern Connecticut State @ Wagner Staten Island, NY NON-D1 FCS SOUT to winWAG 68% 24–32 · 56.4 — no line
2026-09-0512:00 PM W 13–20 Liberty @ James Madison Harrisonburg, VA FBS JMU to winJMU 79% 21–34 · 54.7 —
2026-09-0512:30 PM W 14–59 ● Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA FBS PITT to winPITT 87% 20–38 · 57.2 —
2026-09-0512:30 PM W 3–56 ● Ball State @ Ohio State Columbus, OH FBS OSU to winOSU 98% 9–44 · 53.1 —
2026-09-0512:30 PM W 45–14 Lehigh @ Georgetown Washington, DC FCS LEH to winLEH 96% 42–13 · 54.3 — no line
2026-09-0512:45 PM W 0–57 ● Kent State @ South Carolina Columbia, SC FBS SC to winSC 90% 18–39 · 57.4 —
2026-09-051:00 PM F 13–45 Youngstown State @ Kentucky Lexington, KY FCS FBS UK to winUK 92% 19–42 · 60.6 —
2026-09-051:00 PM F 10–38 Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State Ames, IA FCS FBS ISU to winISU 99% 6–44 · 50.4 —
2026-09-051:00 PM F 0–34 Duquesne @ Air Force USAF Academy, CO FCS FBS AF to winAF 97% 13–43 · 56.7 —
2026-09-051:00 PM F 10–35 Holy Cross @ Colgate Hamilton, NY FCS COLG to winCOLG 82% 18–33 · 50.8 — no line
2026-09-051:30 PM W 13–17 Gardner-Webb @ Wofford Spartanburg, SC FCS WOF to winWOF 54% 23–25 · 48.0 — no line
2026-09-052:00 PM W 14–38 Rhode Island @ Temple Philadelphia, PA FCS FBS TEM to winTEM 85% 19–36 · 54.6 —
2026-09-052:00 PM W 24–31 Sacred Heart @ Monmouth West Long Branch, NJ FCS MONM to winMONM 76% 24–36 · 59.7 — no line
2026-09-053:00 PM W 3–63 Tennessee State @ Georgia Athens, GA FCS FBS UGA to winUGA 99% 3–52 · 54.3 —
2026-09-053:00 PM W 10–45 Drake @ Montana Missoula, MT FCS MONT to winMONT 93% 17–40 · 57.1 — no line
2026-09-053:30 PM W 16–17 ● Baylor @ Auburn Atlanta, GA · neutral FBS AUB to winAUB 58% 24–27 · 50.9 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 9–56 Furman @ Tennessee Knoxville, TN FCS FBS TENN to winTENN 99% 12–48 · 59.7 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 7–59 ● Texas State @ Texas Austin, TX FBS TEX to winTEX 90% 20–40 · 60.0 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 15–34 ● Boston College @ Cincinnati Cincinnati, OH FBS CIN to winCIN 81% 21–35 · 55.5 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 3–17 ● Tulane @ Duke Durham, NC FBS DUKE to winDUKE 74% 20–30 · 49.7 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 27–34 ● Boise State @ Oregon Eugene, OR FBS ORE to winORE 64% 27–33 · 60.1 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 0–45 ● Marshall @ Penn State University Park, PA FBS PSU to winPSU 94% 14–39 · 53.4 —
2026-09-053:30 PM L 43–41 The Citadel @ Charlotte Charlotte, NC FCS FBS CLT to winCLT 85% 21–38 · 59.6 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 15–42 Towson @ Navy Annapolis, MD FCS FBS NAVY to winNAVY 97% 12–43 · 54.8 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 16–45 UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA San Antonio, TX FCS FBS UTSA to winUTSA 95% 16–43 · 59.3 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 0–38 Fordham @ North Dakota State Fargo, ND FCS NDSU to winNDSU 99% 5–46 · 50.7 —
2026-09-053:30 PM W 3–55 Maine @ App State Boone, NC FCS FBS APP to winAPP 97% 12–43 · 54.3 —
2026-09-053:45 PM L 10–24 ● Oklahoma State @ Tulsa Tulsa, OK FBS OKST to winOKST 52% 26–25 · 50.3 —
2026-09-054:00 PM W 26–62 St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota Grand Forks, ND FCS UND to winUND 87% 22–40 · 62.8 — no line
2026-09-054:15 PM W 14–31 North Alabama @ Arkansas Fayetteville, AR FCS FBS ARK to winARK 96% 14–43 · 56.5 —
2026-09-054:15 PM W 0–40 ● Northern Illinois @ Iowa Iowa City, IA FBS IOWA to winIOWA 95% 10–36 · 46.2 —
2026-09-055:00 PM W 3–49 Alcorn State @ Southern Miss Hattiesburg, MS FCS FBS USM to winUSM 96% 15–44 · 59.8 —
2026-09-055:30 PM L 14–48 Tusculum @ East Tennessee State Johnson City, TN NON-D1 FCS TUSC to winETSU 71% 26–35 · 60.6 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM L 13–35 Wyoming @ Colorado State Fort Collins, CO FBS WYO to winCSU 78% 19–32 · 50.7 —
2026-09-056:00 PM W 38–0 Elon @ Davidson Davidson, NC FCS ELON to winELON 88% 36–17 · 53.1 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM W 15–22 Delaware State @ William & Mary Williamsburg, VA FCS W&M to winW&M 66% 25–31 · 55.6 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM L 9–29 West Virginia State @ Robert Morris Moon Township, PA NON-D1 FCS WEST to winRMU 58% 23–26 · 49.3 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM W 10–31 Norfolk State @ Old Dominion Norfolk, VA FCS FBS ODU to winODU 96% 12–42 · 54.0 —
2026-09-056:00 PM W 6–27 Elizabeth City State @ North Carolina Central Durham, NC NON-D1 FCS NCCU to winNCCU 71% 22–30 · 51.8 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM W 17–16 Villanova @ Bucknell Lewisburg, PA FCS VILL to winVILL 73% 30–21 · 51.2 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM W 3–62 Presbyterian @ Mercer Macon, GA FCS MER to winMER 76% 24–35 · 58.7 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM W 0–34 Lane @ Alabama State Montgomery, AL NON-D1 FCS ALST to winALST 99% 9–45 · 54.4 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM W 24–9 Tennessee Tech @ Chattanooga Chattanooga, TN FCS TNTC to winTNTC 79% 32–19 · 51.6 — no line
2026-09-056:00 PM W 28–21 Richmond @ Howard Washington, DC FCS RICH to winRICH 56% 28–25 · 53.0 — no line
2026-09-056:20 PM Western Carolina @ Campbell Buies Creek, NC FCS WCU to winCAM 54% 31–33 · 64.0 — no line
2026-09-057:00 PM W 0–50 ● Missouri State @ Texas A&M College Station, TX FBS TA&M to winTA&M 95% 15–42 · 57.1 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 9–28 Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt Nashville, TN FCS FBS VAN to winVAN 95% 15–42 · 56.4 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 10–33 Abilene Christian @ Texas Tech Lubbock, TX FCS FBS TTU to winTTU 99% 9–44 · 53.0 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 3–71 Nicholls @ Kansas State Manhattan, KS FCS FBS KSU to winKSU 99% 10–49 · 59.1 —
2026-09-057:00 PM L 29–17 Idaho State @ Utah State Logan, UT FCS FBS USU to winUSU 82% 21–36 · 56.5 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 24–42 Arkansas State @ Memphis Memphis, TN FBS MEM to winMEM 78% 23–36 · 59.3 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 3–31 Houston Christian @ Rice Houston, TX FCS FBS RICE to winRICE 97% 10–40 · 50.1 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 9–19 Florida International @ South Florida Tampa, FL FBS USF to winUSF 83% 19–34 · 53.0 —
2026-09-057:00 PM L 7–42 Chicago State @ UT Martin Martin, TN NON-D1 FCS CHIC to winUTM 67% 24–31 · 55.4 — no line
2026-09-057:00 PM L 42–14 West Florida @ Central Arkansas Conway, AR NON-D1 FCS CARK to winWEST 65% 34–27 · 61.0 — no line
2026-09-057:00 PM W 24–34 Northern Iowa @ Eastern Washington Cheney, WA FCS EWU to winEWU 59% 26–30 · 56.8 — no line
2026-09-057:00 PM W 7–49 Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State Jacksonville, AL FCS FBS JXST to winJXST 96% 12–40 · 52.2 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 0–31 Charleston Southern @ Georgia Southern Statesboro, GA FCS FBS GASO to winGASO 96% 8–37 · 45.3 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 23–38 Miles College @ Alabama A&M Huntsville, AL NON-D1 FCS AAMU to winAAMU 87% 19–37 · 55.8 — no line
2026-09-057:00 PM W 14–39 SE Louisiana @ South Alabama Mobile, AL FCS FBS USA to winUSA 96% 15–42 · 57.3 —
2026-09-057:00 PM W 26–48 Central State (OH) @ Grambling Grambling, LA NON-D1 FCS GRAM to winGRAM 94% 17–42 · 59.2 — no line
2026-09-057:00 PM W 0–52 Texas Wesleyan @ McNeese Lake Charles, LA NON-D1 FCS MCN to winMCN 84% 20–36 · 56.3 — no line
2026-09-057:00 PM W 21–24 Sam Houston @ Troy Troy, AL FBS TROY to winTROY 73% 21–31 · 51.8 —
2026-09-057:30 PM W 13–62 ● UL Monroe @ Mississippi State Starkville, MS FBS MSST to winMSST 95% 17–43 · 59.6 —
2026-09-057:30 PM W 3–73 VMI @ Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA FCS FBS VT to winVT 99% 8–50 · 58.0 —
2026-09-057:30 PM W 12–13 ● Western Michigan @ Michigan Ann Arbor, MI FBS MICH to winMICH 67% 19–26 · 45.4 —
2026-09-057:30 PM W 14–66 Edward Waters @ Jackson State Jackson, MS NON-D1 FCS JKST to winJKST 94% 18–42 · 60.1 — no line
2026-09-057:30 PM W 6–80 Northwestern State @ Louisiana Tech Ruston, LA FCS FBS LT to winLT 99% 12–51 · 62.4 —
2026-09-057:45 PM W 21–66 ● Florida Atlantic @ Florida Gainesville, FL FBS FLA to winFLA 89% 22–42 · 64.4 —
2026-09-057:45 PM W 14–38 Murray State @ Middle Tennessee Murfreesboro, TN FCS FBS MTSU to winMTSU 96% 12–41 · 53.5 —
2026-09-058:00 PM W 7–63 Utah Tech @ BYU Provo, UT FCS FBS BYU to winBYU 99% 6–50 · 56.0 —
2026-09-058:00 PM W 0–62 Hampton @ Maryland College Park, MD FCS FBS MD to winMD 99% 4–50 · 54.0 —
2026-09-058:00 PM W 18–34 South Dakota State @ Northwestern Evanston, IL FCS FBS NU to winNU 92% 16–38 · 54.0 —
2026-09-058:00 PM W 41–10 Illinois State @ Western Illinois Macomb, IL FCS ILST to winILST 90% 41–20 · 61.2 — no line
2026-09-058:00 PM W 38–23 South Dakota @ Northern Colorado Greeley, CO FCS SDAK to winSDAK 86% 37–20 · 56.4 — no line
2026-09-058:00 PM W 17–24 Central Washington @ Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, CA NON-D1 FCS CP to winCP 75% 20–31 · 51.3 — no line
2026-09-058:00 PM W 42–47 Weber State @ Southern Utah Cedar City, UT FCS SUU to winSUU 66% 31–38 · 68.5 — no line
2026-09-058:00 PM W 7–44 East Texas A&M @ Stephen F. Austin Nacogdoches, TX FCS SFA to winSFA 95% 14–41 · 55.2 — no line
2026-09-058:00 PM L 15–34 Kentucky State @ Southern Baton Rouge, LA NON-D1 FCS KENT to winSOU 67% 26–33 · 58.4 — no line
2026-09-058:00 PM W 7–38 Lamar @ Louisiana Lafayette, LA FCS FBS UL to winUL 93% 14–38 · 51.9 —
2026-09-058:30 PM W 24–51 Butler @ Montana State Bozeman, MT FCS MTST to winMTST 96% 15–43 · 57.9 — no line
2026-09-059:00 PM W 14–51 Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State Las Cruces, NM FCS FBS NMSU to winNMSU 95% 14–41 · 55.4 —
2026-09-059:30 PM W 7–35 Northern Arizona @ Arizona Tucson, AZ FCS FBS ARIZ to winARIZ 98% 10–43 · 53.3 —
2026-09-059:30 PM W 20–53 Portland State @ San Diego State San Diego, CA FCS FBS SDSU to winSDSU 98% 11–45 · 56.6 —
2026-09-059:40 PM W 10–51 ● Clemson @ LSU Baton Rouge, LA FBS LSU to winLSU 79% 20–33 · 52.3 —
2026-09-0510:00 PM W 7–70 Morgan State @ Arizona State Tempe, AZ FCS FBS ASU to winASU 99% 10–47 · 56.6 —
2026-09-0510:00 PM W 21–6 UNLV @ Hawai'i Honolulu, HI FBS UNLV to winUNLV 64% 28–22 · 50.9 —
2026-09-0510:00 PM W 7–38 Central Michigan @ New Mexico Albuquerque, NM FBS UNM to winUNM 86% 17–35 · 52.2 —
2026-09-0510:00 PM W 0–52 Mississippi Valley State @ Sacramento State Sacramento, CA FCS SAC to winSAC 95% 15–42 · 57.2 —
2026-09-0510:00 PM W 49–17 UC Davis @ San Diego San Diego, CA FCS UCD to winUCD 88% 40–21 · 61.1 — no line
2026-09-0510:30 PM L 45–24 ● UCLA @ California Berkeley, CA FBS CAL to winUCLA 76% 34–22 · 55.6 —
2026-09-0510:30 PM L 14–49 Western Kentucky @ Nevada Reno, NV FBS WKU to winNEV 68% 24–32 · 55.5 —
2026-09-0611:00 AM L 19–28 Western Carolina @ Campbell Buies Creek, NC FCS WCU to winCAM 55% 31–33 · 64.0 — no line
2026-09-0612:00 PM W 14–52 Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M Prairie View, TX FCS PV to winPV 86% 20–38 · 58.5 — no line
2026-09-063:00 PM W 31–13 South Carolina State @ Florida A&M Miami Gardens, FL · neutral FCS SCST to winSCST 76% 35–24 · 59.1 — no line
2026-09-064:00 PM W 10–24 ● Washington State @ Washington Seattle, WA FBS WASH to winWASH 73% 18–28 · 45.7 —
2026-09-067:30 PM W 38–41 ● Louisville @ Ole Miss Nashville, TN · neutral FBS MISS to winMISS 56% 31–33 · 64.3 —
2026-09-067:30 PM W 13–41 ● Wisconsin @ Notre Dame Green Bay, WI · neutral FBS ND to winND 92% 15–37 · 52.0 —
2026-09-077:30 PM W 27–24 ● SMU @ Florida State Tallahassee, FL FBS SMU to winSMU 71% 32–23 · 55.5 —

Every row links to its full breakdown.