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Idaho Vandals @ Utah Utes

2026-09-03 · 9:00 PM · Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City, UT
Utah -18.4
Projected spread
58.7
Projected total
20–39
Proj score (away–home)
84%
Utah win prob
Series Utah lead 14–12–2 · 28 meetings since 1908
Idaho Vandals
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded
Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Utah Utes — defense
DEFENSE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Utah Utes — offense
Utah Utes
Kyle Whittingham · 82-43
Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense), not individual players — per-player ratings wait on the 2026 rosters. Identity, tempo, dual-threat and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

Power breakdown

TeamDivPowerOffDef (higher = better)Rank
Idaho Vandals FCS -0.5 -1.2 +0.7 #185
Utah Utes B12 FBS +15.6 +9.6 +6.0 #7
Idaho offense vs. Utah defense
-7.2 pts
Utah offense vs. Idaho defense
+8.9 pts
Travel · context only
Away team travels 486 mi
Altitude · context only
610 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

These situational spots are shown for context, not baked into the projection: we tested travel, altitude and rest against 6,000+ games and found the power and efficiency ratings already account for them, so adding them again would double-count.

Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), FBS and FCS on one scale. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites). An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone. Player-level matchups, team strengths/weaknesses, and the Vegas-line comparison arrive as those phases land.