BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Eastern Kentucky

· 1-2 · power -12.3 · #321
Our numberJXST -28.1 no book has priced this game

Jacksonville State

CUSA · 1-2 · power +5.2 · #123
Final EKU 7 · JXST 49 ML W Spread W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineJXST to win logged ours 94%

Our number: JXST by 25.4 — JXST to win.

Projected score 12–40 EKU – JXST
2026-09-05 · 7:00 PM AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville, AL Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book EKU spreadJXST spread OverUnder EKU winJXST win EKU TT overEKU TT under JXST TT overJXST TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread JXST 63% bets · 98% money total Under 66% bets · 58% money ML JXST 99% bets · 97% money
Series Jacksonville State lead 10–8 · 18 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks 86 ranks
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #192 rush offense Jacksonville State Gamecocks #106 run defense
Pass game edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks 144 ranks
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #253 pass offense Jacksonville State Gamecocks #109 pass defense
Run game edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks 134 ranks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #48 rush offense Eastern Kentucky Colonels #182 run defense
Pass game edge Eastern Kentucky Colonels 102 ranks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #156 pass offense Eastern Kentucky Colonels #54 pass defense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels Run-heavy · 64% run Ball-control Jacksonville State Gamecocks Run-heavy · 68% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 83 rush ypg
Charles Kelly · 9-5

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
LB Cam Jessee 23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #42 LB
DB Derek Taylor 24 tkl #137 DB
RB Brady Hensley 225 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #62 RB
DB Jeffrey Kinley 19 tkl · 1 PD #266 DB
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
DB Caleb Nix 18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #18 DB
DL Tae Floyd 12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #41 DL
WR Jamill Williams 14 rec · 188 yds · 4 TD #33 WR
QB Caden Creel 677 pass yds · 6 TD · 2 INT #18 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Eastern Kentucky Colonels -12.3 -9.4 -2.9 #321
Jacksonville State GamecocksCUSA +5.2 +2.1 +3.1 #123

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Eastern Kentucky offense vs Jacksonville State defense-12.5 pts
Jacksonville State offense vs Eastern Kentucky defense+5.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.