← Matchups

South Dakota

· 3-0 · power +9.5 · #88
Our numberSDAK -17.3 no book has priced this game

Northern Colorado

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -10.0 · #295
Final SDAK 38 · UNCO 23 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineSDAK to win logged ours 17%

Our number: SDAK by 18.0 — SDAK to win.

Projected score 37–20 SDAK – UNCO
2026-09-05 · 8:00 PM Nottingham Field · Greeley, CO Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Dakota lead 4–1 · 5 meetings since 2009
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Dakota Coyotes 134 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense Northern Colorado Bears #194 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota Coyotes 75 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense Northern Colorado Bears #102 pass defense
Run game edge South Dakota Coyotes 73 ranks
Northern Colorado Bears #216 rush offense South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game even 38 ranks apart
Northern Colorado Bears #196 pass offense South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
South Dakota Coyotes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Northern Colorado Bears Balanced · 52% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
South Dakota Coyotes
P Brook Honore Jr. 9 punts · 47.1 yd avg #5 P
RB Charles Pierre Jr. 261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #27 RB
WR Brayden White 13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD #61 WR
K Bohdie Ing 4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts #15 K
Northern Colorado Bears
DB Franky Morales 18 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #91 DB
DL Dominic Butts 10 tkl · 4.0 TFL #122 DL
DL Blake Weslin 8 tkl · 1.0 TFL #192 DL
DL Ezra Ekuban 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #226 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
South Dakota Coyotes +9.5 +8.1 +1.4 #88
Northern Colorado Bears -10.0 -8.0 -2.0 #295

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
South Dakota offense vs Northern Colorado defense+10.1 pts
Northern Colorado offense vs South Dakota defense-9.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 434 mi
Altitude · context only1,087 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.