BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Louisville

ACC · 1-1 · power +21.9 · #26
Our numberMISS -2.5 no book has priced this game

Ole Miss

SEC · 2-0 · power +24.9 · #18
Final LOU 38 · MISS 41 ML W Spread L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMISS to win logged ours 55%

Our number: MISS by 10.5 — MISS to win.

LOU team totalLOU under 23.5 logged ours 30.9

Our number: LOU 21.6, from our margin and total split into two scores.

MISS team totalMISS over 31.5 logged ours 33.4

Our number: MISS 32.1, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 31–33 LOU – MISS
2026-09-06 · 7:30 PM Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN · neutral Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book LOU spreadMISS spread OverUnder LOU winMISS win LOU TT overLOU TT under MISS TT overMISS TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 7 days ago spread MISS 73% bets · 74% money total Over 72% bets · 63% money ML MISS 93% bets · 92% money
Series Ole Miss lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2021
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Louisville Cardinals 173 ranks
Louisville Cardinals #25 rush offense Ole Miss Rebels #198 run defense
Pass game edge Ole Miss Rebels 151 ranks
Louisville Cardinals #209 pass offense Ole Miss Rebels #58 pass defense
Run game even 41 ranks apart
Ole Miss Rebels #53 rush offense Louisville Cardinals #94 run defense
Pass game even 18 ranks apart
Ole Miss Rebels #23 pass offense Louisville Cardinals #5 pass defense
Louisville Cardinals Balanced · 49% run Ball-control Ole Miss Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Jeff Brohm · 86-51 · defense-minded Pete Golding · 2-1

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Louisville Cardinals
QB Lincoln Kienholz 639 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #1 QB
WR Tre Richardson 11 rec · 181 yds · 1 TD #69 WR
TE Jaleel Skinner 5 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD #23 TE
WR Lawayne McCoy 5 rec · 164 yds · 2 TD #102 WR
Ole Miss Rebels
WR Deuce Alexander 13 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD #24 WR
QB Trinidad Chambliss 561 pass yds · 5 TD · 1 INT #13 QB
DB Jaylon Braxton 11 tkl · 3 PD #111 DB
RB Kewan Lacy 148 rush yds · 3 TD · 5 rec #50 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Louisville CardinalsACC +21.9 +16.3 +5.6 #26
Ole Miss RebelsSEC +24.9 +16.2 +8.7 #18

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Louisville offense vs Ole Miss defense+7.6 pts
Ole Miss offense vs Louisville defense+10.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.