BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Boise State

MWC · 1-1 · power +22.0 · #25
Our numberORE -5.8 no book has priced this game

Oregon

B1G · 1-1 · power +26.0 · #15
Final BOIS 27 · ORE 34 ML W Spread W Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineORE to win logged ours 63%

Our number: ORE by 21.6 — ORE to win.

BOIS team totalBOIS over 13.5 logged ours 27.2

Our number: BOIS 14.5, from our margin and total split into two scores.

ORE team totalORE under 37.5 logged ours 33.0

Our number: ORE 36.1, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 27–33 BOIS – ORE
2026-09-05 · 3:30 PM Autzen Stadium · Eugene, OR Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book BOIS spreadORE spread OverUnder BOIS winORE win BOIS TT overBOIS TT under ORE TT overORE TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread ORE 52% bets · 75% money total Under 79% bets · 70% money ML ORE 98% bets · 93% money
Series Boise State lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 2008
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 20 ranks apart
Boise State Broncos #61 rush offense Oregon Ducks #81 run defense
Pass game edge Oregon Ducks 56 ranks
Boise State Broncos #105 pass offense Oregon Ducks #49 pass defense
Run game edge Oregon Ducks 192 ranks
Oregon Ducks #12 rush offense Boise State Broncos #204 run defense
Pass game even 12 ranks apart
Oregon Ducks #30 pass offense Boise State Broncos #18 pass defense
Boise State Broncos Balanced · 58% run Avg pace Oregon Ducks Balanced · 57% run Ball-control
Spencer Danielson · 24-8 Dan Lanning · 48-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Boise State Broncos
LB Boen Phelps 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #34 LB
DB Travis Anderson 16 tkl · 1 INT #58 DB
RB Sire Gaines 132 rush yds · 1 TD · 3 rec #57 RB
RB Dylan Riley 256 rush yds · 3 rec #84 RB
Oregon Ducks
LB Devon Jackson 12 tkl #38 LB
DL Bear Alexander 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #79 DL
LB Teitum Tuioti 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #62 LB
WR Dakorien Moore 9 rec · 138 yds · 2 TD #68 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Boise State BroncosMWC +22.0 +10.7 +11.3 #25
Oregon DucksB1G +26.0 +17.2 +8.8 #15

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Boise State offense vs Oregon defense+1.9 pts
Oregon offense vs Boise State defense+5.9 pts
Altitude · context only695 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.