Final
ETAM 7 · SFA 44
ML W
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineSFA to win logged
ours 93%
Our number: SFA by 20.6 — SFA to win.
Projected score
14–41
ETAM – SFA
2026-09-05 · 8:00 PM
Homer Bryce Stadium · Nacogdoches, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stephen F. Austin lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
158 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #166 rush offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
209 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #237 pass offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
157 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense
East Texas A&M Lions #196 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
163 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense
East Texas A&M Lions #228 pass defense
East Texas A&M Lions
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
East Texas A&M Lions
DB
Tramar Gilbert
23 tkl · 1 PD
#39 DB
WR
Micah Simpson
17 rec · 311 yds · 2 TD
#29 WR
DL
Duncan Parham
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#86 DL
DB
Jamari Mosley
11 tkl · 2 PD
#220 DB
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB
Makai Frisby
8 tkl · 3 INT
#48 DB
K
Carlos Alvarado
6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts
#9 K
DB
Jaiydyn Johnson
13 tkl · 3 PD
#66 DB
WR
Bugs Mortimer
8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD
#84 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
East Texas A&M offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-12.2 pts
Stephen F. Austin offense vs East Texas A&M defense+10.4 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.