BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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Fresno State

MWC · 1-1 · power +10.1 · #83
Our numberUSC -17.7 no book has priced this game

USC

B1G · 3-0 · power +26.1 · #14
Final FRES 0 · USC 39 ML W Spread L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUSC to win logged ours 84%

Our number: USC by 18.7 — USC to win.

FRES team totalFRES over 13.5 logged ours 18.4

Our number: FRES 17.8, from our margin and total split into two scores.

USC team totalUSC under 37.5 logged ours 36.1

Our number: USC 36.5, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 18–36 FRES – USC
2026-09-04 · 9:00 PM Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book FRES spreadUSC spread OverUnder FRES winUSC win FRES TT overFRES TT under USC TT overUSC TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread USC 64% bets · 57% money total Over 51% bets · 77% money ML USC 96% bets · 58% money
Series USC lead 5–1 · 6 meetings since 1992
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge USC Trojans 77 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #234 rush offense USC Trojans #157 run defense
Pass game even 34 ranks apart
Fresno State Bulldogs #119 pass offense USC Trojans #85 pass defense
Run game edge USC Trojans 53 ranks
USC Trojans #50 rush offense Fresno State Bulldogs #103 run defense
Pass game edge USC Trojans 70 ranks
USC Trojans #9 pass offense Fresno State Bulldogs #79 pass defense
Fresno State Bulldogs Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control USC Trojans Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Matt Entz · 9-4 · defense-minded Lincoln Riley · 90-28 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Fresno State Bulldogs
DL Jahzon Jacks 9 tkl · 2.0 TFL #89 DL
DL Martin Owusu 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #118 DL
RB Bryson Donelson 117 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #116 RB
LB K'vion Thunderbird 13 tkl · 2.0 TFL #222 LB
USC Trojans
WR Trent Mosley 13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD #13 WR
QB Jayden Maiava 896 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #7 QB
TE Mark Bowman 12 rec · 128 yds · 2 TD #10 TE
P Lachlan Carrigan 3 punts · 46.7 yd avg #8 P

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Fresno State BulldogsMWC +10.1 -0.4 +10.5 #83
USC TrojansB1G +26.1 +16.9 +9.2 #14

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Fresno State offense vs USC defense-9.6 pts
USC offense vs Fresno State defense+6.4 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.