FinalUAB 23 · ILL 42ML WSpread WTotal Wour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineILL to winloggedours 88%
Our number: ILL by 24.3 — ILL to win.
UAB team totalUAB over 13.5loggedours 19.2
Our number: UAB 16.6, from our margin and total split into two scores.
ILL team totalILL under 41.5loggedlive now: ILL over 40.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 40.2
Our number: ILL 40.9, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Projected score19–40UAB – ILL
2026-09-03 · 9:00 PMGies Memorial Stadium · Champaign, ILEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
UAB spread
ILL spread
Over
Under
UAB win
ILL win
UAB TT over
UAB TT under
ILL TT over
ILL TT under
DraftKings
—
—
—
—
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadUAB 75% bets · 84% moneytotalUnder 65% bets · 64% moneyMLILL 94% bets · 74% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameeven17 ranks apart
UAB Blazers #77 rush offenseIllinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass gameedge UAB Blazers76 ranks
UAB Blazers #103 pass offenseIllinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Run gameedge Illinois Fighting Illini120 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offenseUAB Blazers #244 run defense
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UAB Blazers
KJonah Delange
7 FG · 4 XP · 25 pts#6 K
LBIke Esonwune
15 tkl#67 LB
LBMuaaz Byard
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL#126 LB
DBJo'Tavion Pierce
11 tkl · 1 PD#244 DB
Illinois Fighting Illini
WRCollin Dixon
17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD#5 WR
QBKatin Houser
453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT#8 QB
LBIsmael Kante
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL#45 LB
LBWill Holmes
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL#102 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UAB offense vs Illinois defense-6.5 pts
Illinois offense vs UAB defense+12.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 461 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.