← Matchups

Lane

· 0-1 · power -39.2 · #403

Our numberALST -35.6 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Alabama State

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -7.5 · #270

Final LANE 0 · ALST 34 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineALST to win logged ours 98%

Our number: ALST by 44.8 — ALST to win.

Projected score 9–45 LANE – ALST

2026-09-05 · 6:00 PM ASU Football Stadium · Montgomery, AL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Alabama State Hornets Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Lane Dragons

DL Frederick Lewis Jr. 3 tkl #733 DL

DL Devonte Huff 8 tkl #734 DL

DL Cameron Toney 7 tkl #893 DL

DL Cadarius Newcomb 5 tkl · 1.0 TFL #892 DL

Alabama State Hornets

RB Jamarie Hostzclaw 169 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #111 RB

DB Ta'Shaun Sims 15 tkl · 1 PD #301 DB

DB Zion Crawford 8 tkl · 3 PD #406 DB

DL Jaylan Jarrett 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #542 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Lane Dragons	-39.2	-20.2	-19.0	#403
Alabama State Hornets	-7.5	-4.8	-2.7	#270

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Lane offense vs Alabama State defense-17.5 pts

Alabama State offense vs Lane defense+14.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.