no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Cole Payton QB out · Tanner McKee QB out · Elijah Moore WR out · Johnny Wilson WR out · Eli Stowers TE out · Grant Calcaterra TE out NYG Najee Harris RB out → Tyrone Tracy Jr. · Dalen Cambre WR out · Thomas Fidone II TE out
NYG win probability
ours 42%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PHI 23 – NYG 20 · PHI -2.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYG +3
NYG +2.5
2/9
—at the line
| book | NYG | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
41.5
held
9/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
PHI · 11
| Cole Payton | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner McKee | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Moore | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Johnny Wilson | WR | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Micah Morris | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Marcus Epps | S | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
NYG · 9
| Najee Harris | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
|
Next up: Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB3 · 12 car · 49 rush yds · 3 tgt · 54% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Harris: 5 car · 20 rush yds · 1 tgt · 22% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
| |||
| Dalen Cambre | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Thomas Fidone II | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Korie Black | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nic Jones | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Bobby Jamison-Travis | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
| J.C. Davis | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jason Pinnock | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 74% #2
NYG #22 68%
PHI
Run gamePHI offense · NYG defense
PHI +0.01 #14
NYG #32 +0.17
NYG
Run block vs frontNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 129 #5
PHI #22 124
PHI
Pass yardsNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 218 #21
PHI #6 204
PHI
Pass attackNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG -0.01 #19
PHI #5 -0.12
PHI
Red zoneNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 59% #23
PHI #10 59%
PHI
Run block vs frontPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 117 #18
NYG #31 145
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
PHI
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 2.8 #23
PHI #11 2.5
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
NYG
Run gameNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG +0.04 #5
PHI #16 -0.02
NYG
3rd downPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 38% #21
NYG #14 40%
NYG
Pass yardsPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 206 #23
NYG #17 230
NYG
3rd downNYG offense · PHI defense
NYG 40% #17
PHI #22 42%
PHI
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI 2.1 #12
NYG #16 2.2
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · NYG defense
PHI +0.04 #13
NYG #16 +0.03
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
even
#16 +0.03
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +18
#32 +0.17
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#17 230
117 #18
Rush yards
OFF +13
#31 145
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
38% #21
3rd down
even
#14 40%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +20
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
even
NYGpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#105
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#114
2.1 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
PHIrun block
line +13
NYGrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#95
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#169
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
117 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 145
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
PHI DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
DEF +14
#5 -0.12
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +11
#16 -0.02
218 #21
Pass yards
DEF +15
#6 204
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +17
#22 124
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#12 2.5
40% #17
3rd down
even
#22 42%
59% #23
Red zone
DEF +13
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
rush +12
PHIpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#47
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#55
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#85
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.5
NYGrun block
line +17
PHIrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#204
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#133
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#635
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#93
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#376
129 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 124