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Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 6 – 4 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 53% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 23 – GB 25 · GB -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -2.5
GB −1.0
4/10
at the line
bookGBDET
DK
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

21 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DET · 10
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Ahmed HassaneinDEOUTCoach's Decision
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Mekhi WingoDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy RolderLBOUTCoach's Decision
Giovanni ManuOTOUTKnee
Christian IzienSOUTGroin
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEKnee
GB · 11
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
J. Michael SturdivantWROUTCoach's Decision
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Anthony CampbellDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jordon RileyDTOUTAchilles
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Travis GloverOTOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass attackDET offense · GB defense OFF +19 DET +0.17 #4 GB #23 +0.08
DET Red zoneDET offense · GB defense OFF +12 DET 70% #5 GB #17 64%
GB Pass attackGB offense · DET defense OFF +11 GB +0.23 #3 DET #14 -0.01
GB 3rd downGB offense · DET defense OFF +7 GB 49% #2 DET #9 37%
DET Pass yardsDET offense · GB defense OFF +7 DET 269 #3 GB #10 207
GB Red zoneGB offense · DET defense OFF +7 GB 63% #16 DET #23 68%
GB Run gameDET offense · GB defense DEF +7 DET -0.04 #24 GB #17 -0.02
GB 3rd downDET offense · GB defense DEF +4 DET 39% #20 GB #16 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
GB Pass yardsGB offense · DET defense OFF +3 GB 226 #18 DET #21 237
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · GB defense LINE +3 DET 120 #14 GB #17 118
DET Pass pro vs rushDET offense · GB defense LINE +2 DET 2.3 #18 GB #20 2.1 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
DET Run block vs frontGB offense · DET defense FRONT +2 GB 120 #15 DET #13 115 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #11
DET Pass pro vs rushGB offense · DET defense RUSH +1 GB 1.7 #7 DET #6 2.8 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
DET Run gameGB offense · DET defense DEF +1 GB -0.01 #19 DET #18 -0.01

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

GB DEFENSE DET OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DET offense against what it runs into

DET OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

+0.17 #4 Pass attack OFF +19 #23 +0.08
-0.04 #24 Run game even #17 -0.02
269 #3 Pass yards even #10 207
120 #14 Rush yards even #18 118
2.3 #18 Pass pro vs rush even #20 2.1
39% #20 3rd down even #16 41%
70% #5 Red zone OFF +12 #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DETpass pro even GBpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#102
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#129
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
DETrun block even GBrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#600
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#265
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#125
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#292
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#221
120 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118