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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens ★ DIV · AFC NORTH ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 8 – 3 BAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
PIT Drew Allar QB out · Will Howard QB out    BAL Joe Fagnano QB out · Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Elijah Sarratt WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR q → LaJohntay Wester · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 63% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 21 – BAL 25 · BAL -4.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ravensspread · margin, last 10
BAL -5.5
BAL −4.2
6/10
at the line
bookBALPIT
DK
Ravenstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
PIT · 9
Drew AllarQBOUTCoach's Decision
Will HowardQBOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Gabriel RubioDEOUTCoach's Decision
Kevin Jobity Jr.DTOUTCoach's Decision
Gennings DunkerGOUTCoach's Decision
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR
BAL · 13
Joe FagnanoQBOUTCoach's Decision
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Elijah SarrattWROUTCoach's Decision
Ja'Kobi LaneWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: LaJohntay Wester WR6 · 0 tgt · 0 rec · 0 yds · 6% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Danny PinterCOUTKnee · IR
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Chandler RiversCBOUTCoach's Decision
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
Emery Jones Jr.OTOUTCoach's Decision
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · BAL defense LINE +19 PIT 1.8 #9 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Run gameBAL offense · PIT defense OFF +18 BAL +0.10 #2 PIT #20 +0.00
PIT Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · PIT defense RUSH +16 BAL 2.6 #21 PIT #5 2.8
BAL Run block vs frontPIT offense · BAL defense FRONT +16 PIT 103 #26 BAL #10 107
PIT Red zoneBAL offense · PIT defense DEF +13 BAL 60% #22 PIT #9 58%
BAL 3rd downBAL offense · PIT defense OFF +10 BAL 41% #15 PIT #25 43%
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · PIT defense LINE +10 BAL 157 #2 PIT #12 113
PIT Pass attackBAL offense · PIT defense DEF +7 BAL -0.04 #24 PIT #17 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
PIT Pass yardsPIT offense · BAL defense OFF +7 PIT 214 #22 BAL #29 259
PIT Pass attackPIT offense · BAL defense OFF +5 PIT +0.03 #16 BAL #21 +0.07
BAL 3rd downPIT offense · BAL defense DEF +4 PIT 41% #14 BAL #10 38%
BAL Red zonePIT offense · BAL defense DEF +4 PIT 66% #11 BAL #7 55%
BAL Run gamePIT offense · BAL defense DEF +3 PIT +0.02 #10 BAL #7 -0.05
BAL Pass yardsBAL offense · PIT defense OFF +2 BAL 193 #28 PIT #30 261

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BAL DEFENSE PIT OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PIT offense against what it runs into

PIT OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC BAL DEFENSE

PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.

+0.03 #16 Pass attack even #21 +0.07
+0.02 #10 Run game even #7 -0.05
214 #22 Pass yards even #29 259
103 #26 Rush yards DEF +16 #10 107
1.8 #9 Pass pro vs rush OFF +19 #28 1.8
41% #14 3rd down even #10 38%
66% #11 Red zone even #7 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PITpass pro line +19 BALpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Calais Campbell DE 6.5 sk#47
Travis Jones DT 5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB 4.5 sk#85
1.8 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
PITrun block front +16 BALrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE 2.0 tfl#455
Travis Jones NT 9.0 tfl#58
Calais Campbell RDE 9.0 tfl#61
Tavius Robinson WLB 3.0 tfl#312
Roquan Smith LILB 5.0 tfl#182
103 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 107