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Biggest gaps from the book — Week 1
10 of 16 games
The ratings' most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Shown beside the market's own number so you can see where they disagree. Not a pick.
| game | moneyline gap | best rushing leg | biggest disagreement | the read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ PIT | 3.8 ours | Jaylen Warren 57.2 vs 42.5 · 53.5% | Kyle Pitts Sr. Anytime TD · ours 30% book 20% · 10.1 ours | The read. The one number we are allowed to move is rushing yards, and it leans Steelers: Jaylen Warren projects 57 against a 42.5 line, 53.5% to go over, the only leg on this board past break-even (52.4%). Bijan Robinson |
| BAL @ IND | 10.4 ours | Derrick Henry 101.0 vs 78.5 · 55.4% | Mark Andrews Anytime TD · ours 20% book 35% · 15.0 book | The read. Two things stand out. Our moneyline read is 8.4 points off the book toward Baltimore, the second-widest game gap of the day, and it is a rating opinion, not a claim. And Derrick Henry projects 101 rushing yards |
| BUF @ HOU | 4.3 ours | Woody Marks 57.4 vs 27.5 · 57.2% | David Montgomery Anytime TD · ours 22% book 49% · 27.2 book | The read. Before 10:30 tonight this game had no Buffalo numbers at all: Week 2's Thursday game, Detroit at Buffalo, sat inside the projection window and the code took the first game it found. Fixed and refreshed; every B |
| CHI @ CAR | 4.8 ours | D'Andre Swift 66.0 vs 59.5 · 51.6% | Jonathon Brooks Anytime TD · ours 9% book 31% · 21.7 book | The read. The quietest board of the day for us. The moneyline gap is 2.9 points, the rushing-yards legs are all inside the noise (Monangai 51.3% is the best of them), and the four battles split. The touchdown gaps are la |
| CLE @ JAC | 11.0 book | Chris Rodriguez Jr. 49.5 vs 37.5 · 52.9% | Bhayshul Tuten Anytime TD · ours 22% book 41% · 19.1 book | The read. Our moneyline read is 12.8 points more Cleveland than the book, the third-widest game gap of the day and worth saying plainly: the book has Jacksonville at 8.5 and we make it 5.4. That is a rating disagreement |
| NO @ DET | 1.8 book | Tyler Shough 16.4 vs 18.5 · 50.0% | Alvin Kamara Anytime TD · ours 36% book 17% · 18.9 ours | The read. Detroit had no numbers until 10:30 tonight for the same reason as Buffalo (the Thursday game in the window); fixed. The line is 7 and we make it 6.8, so the game markets agree. The board's largest gap is Alvin |
| NYJ @ TEN | 3.7 ours | Tony Pollard 71.0 vs 48.5 · 55.4% | Elic Ayomanor Anytime TD · ours 30% book 11% · 19.7 ours | The read. A pick-em on the line (Titans 1.5) and we make it 1.3: no game-market opinion. Tony Pollard is the leg: 71 rushing yards projected against a 48.5 line, 55.4% over, second only to Henry on the day. Breece Hall r |
| TB @ CIN | 10.5 book | Samaje Perine 29.6 vs 17.5 · 52.9% | Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD · ours 24% book 36% · 11.2 book | The read. The widest game gap of the day: the book has Cincinnati by 3.5 and we make it a coin flip, 13.3 points apart on the moneyline. It is worth knowing that most of that is the ratings' regression at Week 1 rather t |
| ARI @ LAC | 13.9 book | Justin Herbert 16.4 vs 19.5 · 50.0% | Bam Knight Anytime TD · ours 31% book 4% · 26.9 ours | The read. The largest moneyline gap on the slate, 15.3 points, the book at LAC by 9.5 and us at 5. That gap has been on the front page all week; it is a rating opinion and nothing in the props supports or contradicts it. |
| GB @ MIN | 0.5 ours | Aaron Jones Sr. 56.5 vs 29.5 · 56.5% | MarShawn Lloyd Anytime TD · ours 14% book 43% · 29.3 book | The read. Josh Jacobs is Out, and this is the board where that matters most. The book has MarShawn Lloyd at 44% to score and Jordan Mason at 40%; we have them at 14% and 21%, because our touchdown λ has not been told who |
| MIA @ LV | 5.8 book | De'Von Achane 80.2 vs 69.5 · 52.6% | Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD · ours 41% book 59% · 18.4 book | The read. Brock Bowers is Out and holds no number. Ashton Jeanty is the board: 68 rushing yards vs 59.5 (52% over, inside the noise) and 41% to score against the book's 59%, the model under the book on the lead back agai |
| WAS @ PHI | 2.4 book | Saquon Barkley 86.7 vs 74.5 · 52.9% | Jalen Hurts Anytime TD · ours 27% book 43% · 16.1 book | The read. Saquon Barkley at 87 rushing yards vs 76.5 is 52.5%, the only leg here near break-even. Jalen Hurts at 27% to score vs the book's 44% is the clearest example of the model missing a role: the tush push is not in |
| DAL @ NYG | 11.8 ours | Najee Harris 27.1 vs 18.5 · 52.1% | Tyrone Tracy Jr. Anytime TD · ours 46% book 20% · 25.6 ours | The read. The Giants' backfield is the story. Cam Skattebo is the starter on the depth chart and the book's line (49.5 rushing yards); Tyrone Tracy at 46% to score against a book price of 20%, and Devin Singletary at 31% |
| DEN @ KAN | 2.0 ours | RJ Harvey 37.1 vs 18.5 · 54.5% | Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD · ours 30% book 55% · 24.7 book |
Power -2.4
19–25
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM
Power +0.5
LAC win probability
ours 67%
book 80%
59%
89%
book is 13 pts higher
Our number
LAC -5.6 · 44.2
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | ARI spread | LAC spread | Over | Under | ARI win | LAC win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
ARI offense vs LAC defense-1.9 pts
LAC offense vs ARI defense+1.0 pts
Power +2.2 · off #1
22–23
projected score
THU SEP 10 · 8:35 PM · DIV
Power +3.7 · off #4
LAR win probability
ours 52%
book 66%
44%
74%
book is 14 pts higher
Our number
LAR -0.8 · 45.6
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | SF spread | LAR spread | Over | Under | SF win | LAR win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
SF offense vs LAR defense+0.4 pts
LAR offense vs SF defense+1.9 pts
Power -1.6
25–26
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 8:20 PM · DIV
Power -2.0
NYG win probability
ours 52%
book 41%
31%
61%
book is 11 pts lower
Our number
NYG -0.8 · 50.9
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | DAL spread | NYG spread | Over | Under | DAL win | NYG win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
DAL offense vs NYG defense+3.1 pts
NYG offense vs DAL defense+2.7 pts
Power -3.2
18–24
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power +2.4
JAX win probability
ours 68%
book 79%
59%
89%
book is 11 pts higher
Our number
JAX -6.0 · 42.3
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | CLE spread | JAX spread | Over | Under | CLE win | JAX win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
CLE offense vs JAX defense-4.2 pts
JAX offense vs CLE defense+1.3 pts
Power -0.1
24–25
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power -1.3
CIN win probability
ours 53%
book 64%
43%
73%
book is 11 pts higher
Our number
CIN -1.0 · 49.7
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | TB spread | CIN spread | Over | Under | TB win | CIN win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
TB offense vs CIN defense+2.9 pts
CIN offense vs TB defense+1.7 pts
Power +1.8
25–25
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power +1.0
IND win probability
ours 49%
book 39%
29%
59%
book is 10 pts lower
Our number
BAL -0.2 · 49.7
The market
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | BAL spread | IND spread | Over | Under | BAL win | IND win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
BAL offense vs IND defense+2.7 pts
IND offense vs BAL defense+1.9 pts
LV win probability
ours 55%
book 60%
43%
73%
book is 5 pts higher
Our number
LV -1.5 · 42.3
The market
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | MIA spread | LV spread | Over | Under | MIA win | LV win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
MIA offense vs LV defense-0.3 pts
LV offense vs MIA defense-2.5 pts
CAR win probability
ours 45%
book 40%
27%
57%
book is 5 pts lower
Our number
CHI -1.7 · 44.7
The market
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All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | CHI spread | CAR spread | Over | Under | CHI win | CAR win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
CHI offense vs CAR defense+1.1 pts
CAR offense vs CHI defense-1.5 pts
HOU win probability
ours 54%
book 50%
37%
67%
book is 4 pts lower
Our number
HOU -1.3 · 45.7
The market
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | BUF spread | HOU spread | Over | Under | BUF win | HOU win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
BUF offense vs HOU defense+0.2 pts
HOU offense vs BUF defense+0.4 pts
Power -1.2
18–26
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power +0.0
PIT win probability
ours 75%
book 71%
58%
88%
book is 4 pts lower
Our number
PIT -8.7 · 44.1
The market
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | ATL spread | PIT spread | Over | Under | ATL win | PIT win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
ATL offense vs PIT defense-1.2 pts
PIT offense vs ATL defense+0.1 pts
What moved · Week 1
Michael MayerTE
Rec yds · MIA @ LV
+2417.5 → 41.5 · 5d
Rhamondre StevensonRB
Rush yds · NE @ SEA
+2038.5 → 58.5 · 12d
Jalen NailorWR
Rec yds · MIA @ LV
+1720.5 → 37.5 · 5d
TreVeyon HendersonRB
Rush yds · NE @ SEA
-1634.5 → 18.5 · 10d
Alec PierceWR
Rec yds · BAL @ IND
-1545.5 → 30.5 · 7d
Drake LondonWR
Rec yds · ATL @ PIT
-1467.5 → 53.5 · 13d
Baker MayfieldQB
Pass yds · TB @ CIN
-14246.5 → 232.5 · 13d
Bhayshul TutenKR
Rush yds · CLE @ JAX
-1257.5 → 45.5 · 13d
Michael Pittman Jr.WR
Rec yds · ATL @ PIT
-1148.5 → 37.5 · 13d
Omarion HamptonRB
Rush yds · ARI @ LAC
+1160.5 → 71.5 · 13d