Green Bay Packers
@
Minnesota Vikings
DIV
BOOK MIN 49%
MODEL MIN 54%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 16:25
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 4 – 6 MIN
GB -1.5
Vegas line (context)
45.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
GB OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
MIN OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
GB OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
-0.01 #19
Run game
DEF +13
#6 -0.05
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +16
#2 178
120 #15
Rush yards
even
#21 124
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
49% #2
3rd down
even
#3 35%
63% #15
Red zone
DEF +13
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +8
#22 +0.08
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#17 -0.02
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +20
#10 207
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#18 118
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#19 2.1
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +15
#16 41%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#17 64%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
GB PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.1
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #2 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #6 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #2 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #2 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #2 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #2 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #22 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #17 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #22 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #22 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #22 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #22 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.