Matchups — Week 1 16 games · heat = 2025 rank gap
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Paycor Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers at
8-9
#18
#20
CIN Cincinnati Bengals
6-11
#12
#30
SPREADCIN -3.5
TOTAL52.5
BOOKCIN 63%
MODEL·PRECIN 52%
RED ZONE
Bengals #1
→
Buccaneers #32
+31
RUN GAME
Buccaneers #12
→
Bengals #29
+17
THU SEP 10 · 8:35 PM · DIV
Melbourne Cricket Ground · dome
'25OFFDEF
SF San Francisco 49ers at
12-5
#10
#13
LAR Los Angeles Rams
12-5
#1
#10
SPREADLAR -3.5
TOTAL48.5
BOOKLAR 62%
MODEL·PRELAR 58%
PASS PRO
Rams #2
→
49ers #32
+30
PASS ATTACK
Rams #2
→
49ers #25
+23
RUN GAME
Rams #7
→
49ers #22
+15
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM · DIV
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
WAS Washington Commanders at
5-12
#22
#27
PHI Philadelphia Eagles
11-6
#19
#5
SPREADPHI -4.5
TOTAL47.5
BOOKPHI 66%
MODEL·PREPHI 67%
RED ZONE
Eagles #2
→
Commanders #28
+26
PASS ATTACK
Eagles #13
→
Commanders #30
+17
RUN GAME
Eagles #14
→
Commanders #28
+14
SUN SEP 13 · 8:20 PM · DIV
MetLife Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
DAL Dallas Cowboys at
7-9-1
#7
#32
NYG New York Giants
4-13
#17
#26
SPREADDAL -2.5
TOTAL47.5
BOOKNYG 43%
MODEL·PRENYG 55%
RUN GAME
Giants #5
→
Cowboys #31
+26
RUN GAME
Cowboys #15
→
Giants #32
+17
PASS ATTACK
Giants #19
→
Cowboys #31
+12
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
CHI Chicago Bears at
11-6
#9
#23
CAR Carolina Panthers
8-9
#27
#15
SPREADCHI -2.5
TOTAL44.5
BOOKCAR 43%
MODEL·PRECAR 48%
PASS PRO
Bears #3
→
Panthers #28
+25
RUN GAME
Bears #4
→
Panthers #24
+20
PASS ATTACK
Bears #10
→
Panthers #24
+14
MON SEP 14 · 8:15 PM · DIV
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
DEN Denver Broncos at
14-3
#14
#3
KAN Kansas City Chiefs
6-11
#21
#6
SPREADKAN -3.0
TOTAL42.5
BOOKKAN 59%
MODEL·PREKAN 54%
PASS PRO
Broncos #1
→
Chiefs #26
+25
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Lucas Oil Stadium
'25OFFDEF
BAL Baltimore Ravens at
8-9
#11
#18
IND Indianapolis Colts
8-9
#8
#21
SPREADBAL -3.5
TOTAL49.5
BOOKIND 38%
MODEL·PREIND 54%
PASS PRO
Colts #8
→
Ravens #30
+22
PASS ATTACK
Colts #12
→
Ravens #21
+9
WED SEP 9 · 8:20 PM
Lumen Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NE New England Patriots at
14-3
#2
#4
SEA Seattle Seahawks
14-3
#3
#1
SPREADSEA -3.5
TOTAL44.5
BOOKSEA 64%
MODEL·PRESEA 65%
PASS PRO
Seahawks #6
→
Patriots #25
+19
RED ZONE
Seahawks #18
→
Patriots #27
+9
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Acrisure Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
ATL Atlanta Falcons at
8-9
#24
#19
PIT Pittsburgh Steelers
10-7
#15
#17
SPREADPIT -3.0
TOTAL41.5
BOOKPIT 61%
MODEL·PREPIT 60%
RUN GAME
Steelers #10
→
Falcons #25
+15
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Reliant Stadium
'25OFFDEF
BUF Buffalo Bills at
12-5
#5
#12
HOU Houston Texans
12-5
#13
#2
SPREADBUF -1.5
TOTAL44.5
BOOKHOU 48%
MODEL·PREHOU 56%
RED ZONE
Bills #3
→
Texans #16
+13
PASS PRO
Texans #9
→
Bills #20
+11
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Ford Field · dome
'25OFFDEF
NO New Orleans Saints at
6-11
#28
#16
DET Detroit Lions
9-8
#4
#22
SPREADDET -7.0
TOTAL49.5
BOOKDET 73%
MODEL·PREDET 69%
RED ZONE
Lions #5
→
Saints #15
+10
PASS ATTACK
Lions #4
→
Saints #12
+8
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM
SoFi Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
ARI Arizona Cardinals at
3-14
#23
#29
LAC Los Angeles Chargers
11-6
#20
#9
SPREADLAC -11.5
TOTAL46.5
BOOKLAC 83%
MODEL·PRELAC 65%
RUN GAME
Chargers #11
→
Cardinals #21
+10
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Nissan Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NYJ New York Jets at
3-14
#29
#31
TEN Tennessee Titans
3-14
#30
#28
SPREADTEN -3.0
TOTAL38.5
BOOKTEN 58%
MODEL·PRETEN 58%
RED ZONE
Titans #20
→
Jets #29
+9
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
EverBank Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
CLE Cleveland Browns at
5-12
#31
#14
JAC Jacksonville Jaguars
13-4
#6
#8
SPREADJAC -7.5
TOTAL40.5
BOOKJAC 77%
MODEL·PREJAC 72%
RED ZONE
Jaguars #12
→
Browns #20
+8
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM · DIV
U.S. Bank Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
GB Green Bay Packers at
9-7-1
#16
#11
MIN Minnesota Vikings
9-8
#26
#7
SPREADGB -1.5
TOTAL45.5
BOOKMIN 49%
MODEL·PREMIN 54%
no major mismatch — evenly built
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM
Allegiant Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
MIA Miami Dolphins at
7-10
#25
#24
LV Las Vegas Raiders
3-14
#32
#25
SPREADLV -3.5
TOTAL40.5
BOOKLV 64%
MODEL·PRELV 49%
no major mismatch — evenly built
OFF/DEF are each team's 2025 points scored / allowed ranks (of 32); mismatch rows pair an offense unit with the defense it runs into — amber gap, weak side in red. SPREAD/TOTAL/BOOK are the market; MODEL is our calibrated spine (preseason, prior-only) — side by side on purpose, not a pick. Weather fills in as kickoff nears. Tap for the full dossier.