Matchups — Week 1 16 games · heat = 2025 rank gap

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Sort Heat Kickoff
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM Paycor Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8-9 #18 #20
CIN Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 #12 #30
SPREADCIN -3.5
TOTAL52.5
BOOKCIN 63%
MODEL·PRECIN 52%
RED ZONE Bengals #1 Buccaneers #32 +31
RUN GAME Buccaneers #12 Bengals #29 +17
THU SEP 10 · 8:35 PM · DIV Melbourne Cricket Ground · dome
'25OFFDEF
SF San Francisco 49ers at 12-5 #10 #13
LAR Los Angeles Rams 12-5 #1 #10
SPREADLAR -3.5
TOTAL48.5
BOOKLAR 62%
MODEL·PRELAR 58%
PASS PRO Rams #2 49ers #32 +30
PASS ATTACK Rams #2 49ers #25 +23
RUN GAME Rams #7 49ers #22 +15
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM · DIV Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
WAS Washington Commanders at 5-12 #22 #27
PHI Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 #19 #5
SPREADPHI -4.5
TOTAL47.5
BOOKPHI 66%
MODEL·PREPHI 67%
RED ZONE Eagles #2 Commanders #28 +26
PASS ATTACK Eagles #13 Commanders #30 +17
RUN GAME Eagles #14 Commanders #28 +14
SUN SEP 13 · 8:20 PM · DIV MetLife Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
DAL Dallas Cowboys at 7-9-1 #7 #32
NYG New York Giants 4-13 #17 #26
SPREADDAL -2.5
TOTAL47.5
BOOKNYG 43%
MODEL·PRENYG 55%
RUN GAME Giants #5 Cowboys #31 +26
RUN GAME Cowboys #15 Giants #32 +17
PASS ATTACK Giants #19 Cowboys #31 +12
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM Bank of America Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
CHI Chicago Bears at 11-6 #9 #23
CAR Carolina Panthers 8-9 #27 #15
SPREADCHI -2.5
TOTAL44.5
BOOKCAR 43%
MODEL·PRECAR 48%
PASS PRO Bears #3 Panthers #28 +25
RUN GAME Bears #4 Panthers #24 +20
PASS ATTACK Bears #10 Panthers #24 +14
MON SEP 14 · 8:15 PM · DIV GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
DEN Denver Broncos at 14-3 #14 #3
KAN Kansas City Chiefs 6-11 #21 #6
SPREADKAN -3.0
TOTAL42.5
BOOKKAN 59%
MODEL·PREKAN 54%
PASS PRO Broncos #1 Chiefs #26 +25
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM Lucas Oil Stadium
'25OFFDEF
BAL Baltimore Ravens at 8-9 #11 #18
IND Indianapolis Colts 8-9 #8 #21
SPREADBAL -3.5
TOTAL49.5
BOOKIND 38%
MODEL·PREIND 54%
PASS PRO Colts #8 Ravens #30 +22
PASS ATTACK Colts #12 Ravens #21 +9
WED SEP 9 · 8:20 PM Lumen Field · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NE New England Patriots at 14-3 #2 #4
SEA Seattle Seahawks 14-3 #3 #1
SPREADSEA -3.5
TOTAL44.5
BOOKSEA 64%
MODEL·PRESEA 65%
PASS PRO Seahawks #6 Patriots #25 +19
RED ZONE Seahawks #18 Patriots #27 +9
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM Acrisure Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
ATL Atlanta Falcons at 8-9 #24 #19
PIT Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 #15 #17
SPREADPIT -3.0
TOTAL41.5
BOOKPIT 61%
MODEL·PREPIT 60%
RUN GAME Steelers #10 Falcons #25 +15
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM Reliant Stadium
'25OFFDEF
BUF Buffalo Bills at 12-5 #5 #12
HOU Houston Texans 12-5 #13 #2
SPREADBUF -1.5
TOTAL44.5
BOOKHOU 48%
MODEL·PREHOU 56%
RED ZONE Bills #3 Texans #16 +13
PASS PRO Texans #9 Bills #20 +11
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM Ford Field · dome
'25OFFDEF
NO New Orleans Saints at 6-11 #28 #16
DET Detroit Lions 9-8 #4 #22
SPREADDET -7.0
TOTAL49.5
BOOKDET 73%
MODEL·PREDET 69%
RED ZONE Lions #5 Saints #15 +10
PASS ATTACK Lions #4 Saints #12 +8
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM SoFi Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
ARI Arizona Cardinals at 3-14 #23 #29
LAC Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 #20 #9
SPREADLAC -11.5
TOTAL46.5
BOOKLAC 83%
MODEL·PRELAC 65%
RUN GAME Chargers #11 Cardinals #21 +10
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM Nissan Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
NYJ New York Jets at 3-14 #29 #31
TEN Tennessee Titans 3-14 #30 #28
SPREADTEN -3.0
TOTAL38.5
BOOKTEN 58%
MODEL·PRETEN 58%
RED ZONE Titans #20 Jets #29 +9
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM EverBank Stadium · outdoors
'25OFFDEF
CLE Cleveland Browns at 5-12 #31 #14
JAC Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 #6 #8
SPREADJAC -7.5
TOTAL40.5
BOOKJAC 77%
MODEL·PREJAC 72%
RED ZONE Jaguars #12 Browns #20 +8
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM · DIV U.S. Bank Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
GB Green Bay Packers at 9-7-1 #16 #11
MIN Minnesota Vikings 9-8 #26 #7
SPREADGB -1.5
TOTAL45.5
BOOKMIN 49%
MODEL·PREMIN 54%
no major mismatch — evenly built
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM Allegiant Stadium · dome
'25OFFDEF
MIA Miami Dolphins at 7-10 #25 #24
LV Las Vegas Raiders 3-14 #32 #25
SPREADLV -3.5
TOTAL40.5
BOOKLV 64%
MODEL·PRELV 49%
no major mismatch — evenly built
OFF/DEF are each team's 2025 points scored / allowed ranks (of 32); mismatch rows pair an offense unit with the defense it runs into — amber gap, weak side in red. SPREAD/TOTAL/BOOK are the market; MODEL is our calibrated spine (preseason, prior-only) — side by side on purpose, not a pick. Weather fills in as kickoff nears. Tap for the full dossier.