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Biggest gaps from the book — Week 1
10 of 16 games
The ratings' most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Shown beside the market's own number so you can see where they disagree. Not a pick.
| game | moneyline gap | best rushing leg | biggest disagreement |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ PIT | 3.8 ours | Jaylen Warren 57.2 vs 42.5 · 53.5% | Kyle Pitts Sr. Anytime TD · ours 30% book 20% · 10.1 ours |
| BAL @ IND | 10.4 ours | Derrick Henry 101.0 vs 77.5 · 55.7% | Mark Andrews Anytime TD · ours 20% book 35% · 15.0 book |
| BUF @ HOU | 4.3 ours | Woody Marks 57.4 vs 27.5 · 57.2% | David Montgomery Anytime TD · ours 22% book 49% · 27.2 book |
| CHI @ CAR | 4.8 ours | D'Andre Swift 66.0 vs 59.5 · 51.6% | Jonathon Brooks Anytime TD · ours 9% book 30% · 21.2 book |
| CLE @ JAX | 11.0 book | Chris Rodriguez Jr. 49.5 vs 37.5 · 52.9% | Bhayshul Tuten Anytime TD · ours 22% book 39% · 17.5 book |
| NO @ DET | 1.8 book | Tyler Shough 16.4 vs 18.5 · 50.0% | Kendre Miller Anytime TD · ours 32% book 14% · 17.3 ours |
| NYJ @ TEN | 3.7 ours | Tony Pollard 71.0 vs 49.5 · 55.2% | Elic Ayomanor Anytime TD · ours 30% book 10% · 20.2 ours |
| TB @ CIN | 10.5 book | Samaje Perine 29.6 vs 17.5 · 52.9% | Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD · ours 24% book 36% · 11.9 book |
| ARI @ LAC | 13.9 book | Justin Herbert 16.4 vs 19.5 · 50.0% | Bam Knight Anytime TD · ours 31% book 4% · 26.9 ours |
| GB @ MIN | 0.5 ours | Aaron Jones Sr. 56.5 vs 29.5 · 56.5% | MarShawn Lloyd Anytime TD · ours 14% book 43% · 29.3 book |
| MIA @ LV | 5.8 book | De'Von Achane 80.2 vs 69.5 · 52.6% | Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD · ours 41% book 56% · 14.8 book |
| WAS @ PHI | 2.4 book | Saquon Barkley 86.7 vs 76.5 · 52.5% | Jalen Hurts Anytime TD · ours 27% book 43% · 15.2 book |
| DAL @ NYG | 11.8 ours | Dak Prescott 14.8 vs 7.5 · 50.0% | Tyrone Tracy Jr. Anytime TD · ours 46% book 20% · 25.6 ours |
| DEN @ KC | 2.6 ours | RJ Harvey 37.1 vs 17.5 · 54.7% | Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD · ours 30% book 53% · 23.6 book |
NYG win probability
ours 55%
book 40%
33%
63%
book is 15 pts lower
Our number
NYG -1.6 · 52.1
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | DAL spread | NYG spread | Over | Under | DAL win | NYG win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
DAL offense vs NYG defense+2.7 pts
NYG offense vs DAL defense+2.6 pts
LAC win probability
ours 65%
book 79%
57%
87%
book is 14 pts higher
Our number
LAC -5.0 · 45.3
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | ARI spread | LAC spread | Over | Under | ARI win | LAC win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
ARI offense vs LAC defense-1.8 pts
LAC offense vs ARI defense+0.3 pts
LAR win probability
ours 52%
book 66%
44%
74%
book is 14 pts higher
Our number
LAR -0.8 · 46.7
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | SF spread | LAR spread | Over | Under | SF win | LAR win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
SF offense vs LAR defense+0.3 pts
LAR offense vs SF defense+1.8 pts
CIN win probability
ours 55%
book 64%
45%
75%
book is 9 pts higher
Our number
CIN -1.6 · 51.5
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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| Book | TB spread | CIN spread | Over | Under | TB win | CIN win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
TB offense vs CIN defense+2.9 pts
CIN offense vs TB defense+1.9 pts
JAX win probability
ours 71%
book 79%
60%
90%
book is 8 pts higher
Our number
JAX -7.2 · 43.6
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | CLE spread | JAX spread | Over | Under | CLE win | JAX win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
CLE offense vs JAX defense-4.7 pts
JAX offense vs CLE defense+1.6 pts
IND win probability
ours 47%
book 41%
29%
59%
book is 6 pts lower
Our number
BAL -0.8 · 51.7
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | BAL spread | IND spread | Over | Under | BAL win | IND win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
BAL offense vs IND defense+3.3 pts
IND offense vs BAL defense+1.6 pts
KC win probability
ours 61%
book 54%
43%
73%
book is 7 pts lower
Our number
KC -3.7 · 42.2
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | DEN spread | KC spread | Over | Under | DEN win | KC win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
DEN offense vs KC defense-2.4 pts
KC offense vs DEN defense-2.2 pts
MIN win probability
ours 58%
book 53%
41%
71%
book is 5 pts lower
Our number
MIN -2.6 · 43.8
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | GB spread | MIN spread | Over | Under | GB win | MIN win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
GB offense vs MIN defense-1.5 pts
MIN offense vs GB defense-1.5 pts
PIT win probability
ours 76%
book 72%
59%
89%
book is 4 pts lower
Our number
PIT -9.3 · 44.8
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | ATL spread | PIT spread | Over | Under | ATL win | PIT win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
ATL offense vs PIT defense-1.7 pts
PIT offense vs ATL defense-0.3 pts
HOU win probability
ours 54%
book 50%
37%
67%
book is 4 pts lower
Our number
HOU -1.2 · 48.1
The market
consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
| Book | BUF spread | HOU spread | Over | Under | BUF win | HOU win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||||||
| FanDuel | ||||||
| BetMGM | ||||||
| theScore Bet | ||||||
| Caesars |
BUF offense vs HOU defense+0.7 pts
HOU offense vs BUF defense+0.5 pts
What moved · Week 1
Michael MayerTE
Rec yds · MIA @ LV
+2417.5 → 41.5 · 5d
Rhamondre StevensonRB
Rush yds · NE @ SEA
+2038.5 → 58.5 · 12d
Jalen NailorWR
Rec yds · MIA @ LV
+1720.5 → 37.5 · 5d
TreVeyon HendersonRB
Rush yds · NE @ SEA
-1634.5 → 18.5 · 10d
Baker MayfieldQB
Pass yds · TB @ CIN
-15246.5 → 231.5 · 13d
Geno SmithQB
Pass yds · NYJ @ TEN
+15200.5 → 215.5 · 13d
Alec PierceWR
Rec yds · BAL @ IND
-1545.5 → 30.5 · 7d
Drake LondonWR
Rec yds · ATL @ PIT
-1467.5 → 53.5 · 13d
Rashee RiceWR
Rec yds · DEN @ KC
-1365.5 → 52.5 · 14d
Bhayshul TutenKR
Rush yds · CLE @ JAX
-1257.5 → 45.5 · 13d