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10–6 · 62% · every call graded in public record →
Biggest gaps from the book — Week 1 10 of 16 games

The ratings' most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Shown beside the market's own number so you can see where they disagree. Not a pick.

Our numbers vs the book · one line per game · as of 8:00 PM Sep 13
gamemoneyline gapbest rushing legbiggest disagreement
ATL @ PIT 3.8 ours Jaylen Warren 57.2 vs 42.5 · 53.5% Kyle Pitts Sr. Anytime TD · ours 30% book 20% · 10.1 ours
BAL @ IND 10.4 ours Derrick Henry 101.0 vs 77.5 · 55.7% Mark Andrews Anytime TD · ours 20% book 35% · 15.0 book
BUF @ HOU 4.3 ours Woody Marks 57.4 vs 27.5 · 57.2% David Montgomery Anytime TD · ours 22% book 49% · 27.2 book
CHI @ CAR 4.8 ours D'Andre Swift 66.0 vs 59.5 · 51.6% Jonathon Brooks Anytime TD · ours 9% book 30% · 21.2 book
CLE @ JAX 11.0 book Chris Rodriguez Jr. 49.5 vs 37.5 · 52.9% Bhayshul Tuten Anytime TD · ours 22% book 39% · 17.5 book
NO @ DET 1.8 book Tyler Shough 16.4 vs 18.5 · 50.0% Kendre Miller Anytime TD · ours 32% book 14% · 17.3 ours
NYJ @ TEN 3.7 ours Tony Pollard 71.0 vs 49.5 · 55.2% Elic Ayomanor Anytime TD · ours 30% book 10% · 20.2 ours
TB @ CIN 10.5 book Samaje Perine 29.6 vs 17.5 · 52.9% Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD · ours 24% book 36% · 11.9 book
ARI @ LAC 13.9 book Justin Herbert 16.4 vs 19.5 · 50.0% Bam Knight Anytime TD · ours 31% book 4% · 26.9 ours
GB @ MIN 0.5 ours Aaron Jones Sr. 56.5 vs 29.5 · 56.5% MarShawn Lloyd Anytime TD · ours 14% book 43% · 29.3 book
MIA @ LV 5.8 book De'Von Achane 80.2 vs 69.5 · 52.6% Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD · ours 41% book 56% · 14.8 book
WAS @ PHI 2.4 book Saquon Barkley 86.7 vs 76.5 · 52.5% Jalen Hurts Anytime TD · ours 27% book 43% · 15.2 book
DAL @ NYG 11.8 ours Dak Prescott 14.8 vs 7.5 · 50.0% Tyrone Tracy Jr. Anytime TD · ours 46% book 20% · 25.6 ours
DEN @ KC 2.6 ours RJ Harvey 37.1 vs 17.5 · 54.7% Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD · ours 30% book 53% · 23.6 book
Power -1.7 · off #23
25–27
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 8:20 PM · DIV
Power -1.8 · off #12
NYG win probability
ours 55% book 40%
33%
63%
book is 15 pts lower
Our number NYG -1.6 · 52.1
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
Spread
Total
Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book DAL spreadNYG spread OverUnder DAL winNYG win
DraftKings
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Caesars
DAL offense vs NYG defense+2.7 pts
NYG offense vs DAL defense+2.6 pts
Full breakdown →
Power -2.0 · off #16
20–25
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM
Power +0.1 · off #24
LAC win probability
ours 65% book 79%
57%
87%
book is 14 pts higher
Our number LAC -5.0 · 45.3
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Total
Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book ARI spreadLAC spread OverUnder ARI winLAC win
DraftKings
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theScore Bet
Caesars
ARI offense vs LAC defense-1.8 pts
LAC offense vs ARI defense+0.3 pts
Full breakdown →
Power +2.2 · off #14
23–24
projected score
THU SEP 10 · 8:35 PM · DIV
Power +3.7 · off #32
LAR win probability
ours 52% book 66%
44%
74%
book is 14 pts higher
Our number LAR -0.8 · 46.7
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Total
Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book SF spreadLAR spread OverUnder SF winLAR win
DraftKings
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Caesars
SF offense vs LAR defense+0.3 pts
LAR offense vs SF defense+1.8 pts
Full breakdown →
Power -0.2 · off #15
25–27
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power -1.2 · off #7
CIN win probability
ours 55% book 64%
45%
75%
book is 9 pts higher
Our number CIN -1.6 · 51.5
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Total
Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book TB spreadCIN spread OverUnder TB winCIN win
DraftKings
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theScore Bet
Caesars
TB offense vs CIN defense+2.9 pts
CIN offense vs TB defense+1.9 pts
Full breakdown →
Power -3.6 · off #30
18–25
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power +2.8 · off #6
JAX win probability
ours 71% book 79%
60%
90%
book is 8 pts higher
Our number JAX -7.2 · 43.6
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Total
Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book CLE spreadJAX spread OverUnder CLE winJAX win
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
theScore Bet
Caesars
CLE offense vs JAX defense-4.7 pts
JAX offense vs CLE defense+1.6 pts
Full breakdown →
Power +2.2 · off #2
26–25
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power +0.5 · off #19
IND win probability
ours 47% book 41%
29%
59%
book is 6 pts lower
Our number BAL -0.8 · 51.7
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book BAL spreadIND spread OverUnder BAL winIND win
DraftKings
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Caesars
BAL offense vs IND defense+3.3 pts
IND offense vs BAL defense+1.6 pts
Full breakdown →
Power +1.4 · off #28
19–23
projected score
MON SEP 14 · 8:15 PM · DIV
Power +1.5 · off #9
KC win probability
ours 61% book 54%
43%
73%
book is 7 pts lower
Our number KC -3.7 · 42.2
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book DEN spreadKC spread OverUnder DEN winKC win
DraftKings
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Caesars
DEN offense vs KC defense-2.4 pts
KC offense vs DEN defense-2.2 pts
Full breakdown →
Power +0.8 · off #20
21–23
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 4:25 PM · DIV
Power +0.8 · off #3
MIN win probability
ours 58% book 53%
41%
71%
book is 5 pts lower
Our number MIN -2.6 · 43.8
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Total
Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book GB spreadMIN spread OverUnder GB winMIN win
DraftKings
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theScore Bet
Caesars
GB offense vs MIN defense-1.5 pts
MIN offense vs GB defense-1.5 pts
Full breakdown →
Power -1.3 · off #25
18–27
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power +0.1 · off #22
PIT win probability
ours 76% book 72%
59%
89%
book is 4 pts lower
Our number PIT -9.3 · 44.8
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Total
Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book ATL spreadPIT spread OverUnder ATL winPIT win
DraftKings
FanDuel
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theScore Bet
Caesars
ATL offense vs PIT defense-1.7 pts
PIT offense vs ATL defense-0.3 pts
Full breakdown →
Power +3.0 · off #5
23–25
projected score
SUN SEP 13 · 1:00 PM
Power +2.8 · off #8
HOU win probability
ours 54% book 50%
37%
67%
book is 4 pts lower
Our number HOU -1.2 · 48.1
The market consensus · tap to build a ticket
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Total
Moneyline
All 5 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book
Book BUF spreadHOU spread OverUnder BUF winHOU win
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
theScore Bet
Caesars
BUF offense vs HOU defense+0.7 pts
HOU offense vs BUF defense+0.5 pts
Full breakdown →