Buffalo Bills
@
Houston Texans
BOOK HOU 48%
MODEL HOU 56%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00
· Reliant Stadium
· astroturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 1 – 2 HOU
BUF -1.5
Vegas line (context)
44.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BUF OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
HOU OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BUF OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
even
#1 -0.19
+0.11 #1
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#7 205
160 #1
Rush yards
even
#4 94
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#7 2.8
46% #3
3rd down
even
#7 37%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +13
#16 63%
HOU OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
DEF +8
#7 -0.11
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#30 +0.09
233 #14
Pass yards
DEF +13
#1 170
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#28 136
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#20 2.1
38% #24
3rd down
even
#24 42%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#24 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.1
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #1 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #8 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #1 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #1 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #1 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #1 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #7 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #30 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #7 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #7 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #7 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #7 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.