Denver Broncos
@
Kansas City Chiefs
DIV
BOOK KAN 59%
MODEL KAN 54%
Week 1 · 2026-09-14 · 20:15
· GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 4 – 6 KAN
KAN -3.0
Vegas line (context)
42.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
KAN OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
231 #17
Pass yards
DEF +9
#8 205
119 #16
Rush yards
even
#9 106
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +25
#26 1.9
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +19
#28 44%
63% #16
Red zone
DEF +10
#6 55%
KAN OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
DEF +8
#6 -0.12
+0.03 #6
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#11 212
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +23
#2 91
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +21
#1 4.0
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +21
#2 34%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +24
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 4.0
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #15 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #11 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #15 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #15 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #15 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #15 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #6 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #10 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #6 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #6 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #6 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #6 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.