New England Patriots
@
Seattle Seahawks
BOOK SEA 64%
MODEL SEA 65%
Week 1 · 2026-09-09 · 20:20
· Lumen Field (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 0 – 2 SEA
SEA -3.5
Vegas line (context)
44.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NE OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
SEA OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NE OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.01 #13
Run game
DEF +12
#1 -0.15
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +8
#12 213
129 #6
Rush yards
even
#3 92
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#8 2.8
44% #6
3rd down
even
#1 33%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#4 54%
SEA OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +11
#15 -0.03
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#9 207
123 #11
Rush yards
even
#6 102
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#25 2.0
43% #10
3rd down
even
#11 39%
62% #18
Red zone
OFF +9
#27 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NE PASS RUSH
vs
SEA PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
1.6 #6
sacks allowed /g
#8 2.0
SEA PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Byron Murphy II DT
9.0 sacks '25
Leonard Williams DE
8.0 sacks '25
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
8.0 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #8 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #1 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #8 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #8 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #8 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #8 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
SEA
Sam Darnold QB
vs #11 PASS D
236.0 pass y/g 5/10
Zach Charbonnet RB
vs #15 RUN D
44.1 rush y/g 5/10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1
vs #11 PASS D
99.6 rec y/g 3/10
Rashid Shaheed WR2
vs #11 PASS D
36.4 rec y/g 3/10
Cooper Kupp WR3
vs #11 PASS D
39.5 rec y/g 3/10
AJ Barner TE
vs #11 PASS D
29.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.