New York Jets
@
Tennessee Titans
BOOK TEN 58%
MODEL TEN 58%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00
· Nissan Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 2 – 0 TEN
TEN -3.0
Vegas line (context)
38.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
TEN OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#29 +0.17
-0.06 #29
Run game
even
#23 +0.01
164 #32
Pass yards
even
#26 248
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#15 115
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#14 2.5
35% #27
3rd down
even
#21 42%
53% #29
Red zone
even
#30 71%
TEN OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
even
#32 +0.25
-0.06 #27
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +13
#16 226
93 #30
Rush yards
even
#29 139
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +20
#12 39%
61% #20
Red zone
OFF +9
#29 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 1.5
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #29 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #23 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #29 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #29 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #29 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #29 PASS D
— rec y/g
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #32 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #26 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #32 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #32 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #32 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #32 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.