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10–6 · 62% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00 · Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 2 – 0 TEN
Final NYJ 23 – 10 TEN
11-36 on this game's sides · 23.4% · break-even at the prices taken 43.1% · 8 void · the record · lines as of 8:00 PM Sep 13 · projections as of 12:06 PM Sep 13
NYJ Tim Patrick WR out · Kene Nwangwu RB q · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
TEN win probability
ours 54% book 52%
38%
68%
book is 2 pts lower
projected NYJ 22 – TEN 24 · TEN -1.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. A fitted season's rating had already seen this result, so it is not shown as a forecast. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Titansspread · margin, last 10
TEN -1.5opened -2.5
TEN −1.4
2/10
at the line
bookTENNYJ
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
MGM
Titanstotal · points in the game, last 10
39.5opened 39.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
MGM
SCORE
DK
CZR
FD
Titansmoneyline · wins, last 10
51.7%opened -145
ours 54.4%
2/10
TEN+2.6 pts vs book
bookTENNYJ
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
SCORE
Passinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Passing
Pass yds24-4
Cam WardTEN · QB
204.5from 210.5
174.7
3/10
UNDER−29.8 yds
W 140
booklineoverunder
DK204.5
FD201.5
MGM204.5
SCORE204.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
124.5+8/10····
149.5+5/10·
174.5+4/10···
199.5+3/10
249.5+2/10
299.5+0/10·
349.5+0/10···
Geno SmithNYJ · QB
215.5from 200.5
203.4
3/10
UNDER−12.1 yds
L 215
booklineoverunder
DK215.5
FD212.5
MGM208.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
124.5+8/10····
149.5+7/10·
199.5+5/10
249.5+2/10
299.5+0/10
349.5+0/10··
369.5+0/10····
Pass TD2
Cam WardTEN · QB
1.5
1
4/10
UNDER−0.5 TD
W 1
booklineoverunder
DK1.5
FD1.5
MGM1.5
SCORE1.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+7/10
1.5+4/10
2.5+0/10
3.5+0/10··
Geno SmithNYJ · QB
1.5from 0.5
1
3/10
OVER−0.5 TD
L 0
booklineoverunder
DK1.5
FD0.5
MGM1.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+7/10
1.5+3/10
2.5+1/10
3.5+1/10··
Pass att2
Cam WardTEN · QB
31.5
29.6
5/10
UNDER−1.9 att
L 32
booklineoverunder
DK31.5
MGM31.5
SCORE31.5
Geno SmithNYJ · QB
30.5
29.6
3/10
UNDER−0.9 att
W 24
booklineoverunder
DK30.5
MGM31.5
Comp2
Cam WardTEN · QB
19.5
17.8
5/10
UNDER−1.7 comp
W 19
booklineoverunder
DK19.5
MGM19.5
SCORE19.5
Geno SmithNYJ · QB
19.5from 20.5
19.6
4/10
OVER+0.1 comp
L 19
booklineoverunder
DK19.5
MGM20.5
Rushinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Rushing
Rush yds62-8
Tony PollardTEN · RB
49.5from 50.5
71
6/10
OVER+21.5 yds
L 35
booklineoverunder
DK49.5
FD48.5
MGM48.5
SCORE49.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
19.5+10/10··
24.5+8/10·
29.5+8/10·
39.5+7/10·
49.5+6/10
99.5+3/10
149.5+1/10····
Geno SmithNYJ · QB
6.5from 5.5
11.8
5/10
OVER+5.3 yds
W 7
booklineoverunder
DK6.5
FD6.5
MGM6.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+5/10····
9.5+1/10··
14.5+0/10···
19.5+0/10·
24.5+0/10·
29.5+0/10···
74.5+0/10····
Breece HallNYJ · RB
63.5from 62.5
57.1
5/10
UNDER−6.4 yds
L 102
booklineoverunder
DK63.5
FD64.5
MGM63.5
SCORE65.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
19.5+10/10····
29.5+9/10·
39.5+9/10·
49.5+7/10
59.5+5/10·
99.5+3/10
159.5+0/10····
Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB
26.5from 20.5
29.6
2/10
OVER+3.1 yds
L 12
booklineoverunder
DK26.5
FD26.5
MGM25.5
SCORE24.5
Braelon AllenNYJ · RB
19.5from 18.5
15
5/10
UNDER−4.5 yds
L 40
booklineoverunder
DK19.5
FD19.5
MGM19.5
SCORE19.5
Cam WardTEN · QB
10.5from 7.5
8.8
4/10
UNDER−1.7 yds
L 21
booklineoverunder
DK10.5
FD9.5
MGM10.5
SCORE8.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+8/10····
9.5+5/10··
14.5+3/10···
19.5+3/10·
24.5+2/10·
29.5+2/10·
59.5+0/10····
Carries4
Breece HallNYJ · RB
16.5from 17.5
13.7
4/10
UNDER−2.8 carries
L 22
booklineoverunder
DK16.5
MGM16.5
SCORE16.5
Tony PollardTEN · RB
13.5from 14.5
15.8
5/10
OVER+2.3 carries
L 7
booklineoverunder
DK13.5
MGM13.5
SCORE13.5
Braelon AllenNYJ · RB
5.5
3.9
5/10
UNDER−1.6 carries
L 10
booklineoverunder
DK5.5
Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB
7.5from 6.5
7.2
2/10
UNDER−0.3 carries
W 3
booklineoverunder
DK7.5
MGM7.5
SCORE6.5
Receivinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Receiving
Rec yds134-12
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR
42.5from 40.5
64.8
6/10
OVER+22.3 yds
L 38
booklineoverunder
DK43.5
FD41.5
MGM42.5
SCORE42.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
9.5+10/10···
39.5+6/10·
49.5+4/10
59.5+3/10·
69.5+2/10·
79.5+2/10·
139.5+1/10····
Mason TaylorNYJ · TE
21.5from 18.5
32.5
5/10
OVER+11.0 yds
L -2
booklineoverunder
DK21.5
FD22.5
MGM19.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+7/10····
9.5+7/10··
19.5+7/10··
24.5+5/10··
39.5+2/10·
49.5+2/10
99.5+0/10····
Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR
66.5from 60.5
54.9
5/10
UNDER−11.6 yds
L 79
booklineoverunder
DK66.5
FD61.5
MGM59.5
SCORE64.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
9.5+9/10····
39.5+8/10·
49.5+8/10
59.5+6/10·
69.5+5/10·
99.5+0/10
169.5+0/10····
Calvin RidleyTEN · WR
28.5from 26.5
35.5
6/10
OVER+7.0 yds
V DNP
booklineoverunder
DK28.5
FD27.5
MGM25.5
SCORE29.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+10/10····
9.5+10/10··
39.5+5/10·
49.5+5/10
59.5+4/10·
69.5+4/10·
124.5+1/10····
Breece HallNYJ · RB
20.5from 15.5
14.2
2/10
UNDER−6.3 yds
W 16
booklineoverunder
DK23.5
FD20.5
MGM20.5
SCORE19.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+9/10····
9.5+6/10··
19.5+2/10··
24.5+2/10··
39.5+2/10·
49.5+1/10
99.5+0/10····
Tony PollardTEN · RB
9.5from 8.5
12.7
4/10
OVER+3.2 yds
L -1
booklineoverunder
DK9.5
FD9.5
MGM8.5
SCORE9.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+5/10····
9.5+4/10·
19.5+1/10··
24.5+0/10··
29.5+0/10··
39.5+0/10··
124.5+0/10····
Gunnar HelmTEN · TE
20.5from 23.5
19.2
6/10
UNDER−1.3 yds
L 28
booklineoverunder
DK20.5
FD20.5
MGM21.5
SCORE19.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+9/10····
9.5+7/10··
19.5+6/10··
24.5+4/10··
39.5+2/10·
49.5+1/10
99.5+0/10····
Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR
34.5from 32.5
35.4
5/10
OVER+0.9 yds
W 60
booklineoverunder
DK34.5
FD32.5
MGM30.5
SCORE34.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+9/10····
39.5+5/10·
49.5+3/10
59.5+2/10·
69.5+1/10·
79.5+1/10·
124.5+0/10····
Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB
15.5from 19.5
16.5
6/10
OVER+1.0 yds
L 12
booklineoverunder
DK16.5
FD15.5
MGM15.5
SCORE18.5
Carnell TateTEN · WR
39.5from 42.5
0/1
no number
booklineoverunder
DK39.5
FD37.5
MGM40.5
SCORE39.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
9.5+1/1··
39.5+0/1·
49.5+0/1
59.5+0/1·
69.5+0/1·
79.5+0/1·
124.5+0/1····
Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE
14.5
1/1
no number
booklineoverunder
DK14.5
FD12.5
MGM14.5
SCORE14.5
Omar Cooper Jr.QNYJ · WR
14.5
1/1
no number
booklineoverunder
DK13.5
FD14.5
MGM14.5
althitDKFDMGMSCORECZR
4.5+1/1····
9.5+1/1··
19.5+1/1··
24.5+1/1··
39.5+0/1·
49.5+0/1
99.5+0/1····
Elic AyomanorTEN · WR
9.5
9/10
no number
booklineoverunder
FD9.5
Rec13
Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR
5.5
4
6/10
UNDER−1.5 rec
L 6
booklineoverunder
DK5.5
FD5.5
MGM5.5
SCORE5.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
1.5+9/10···
3.5+8/10
4.5+6/10
5.5+6/10
6.5+3/10
7.5+1/10
11.5+0/10···
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR
4.5
5.5
7/10
OVER+1.0 rec
W 5
booklineoverunder
DK4.5
FD4.5
MGM4.5
SCORE4.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
1.5+10/10··
2.5+10/10
3.5+8/10
4.5+7/10
5.5+5/10
6.5+4/10·
9.5+1/10··
Mason TaylorNYJ · TE
2.5
3.3
6/10
OVER+0.8 rec
L 2
booklineoverunder
DK2.5
FD2.5
MGM2.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+10/10···
1.5+8/10
2.5+6/10
3.5+4/10
4.5+3/10
5.5+1/10·
6.5+1/10···
Breece HallNYJ · RB
2.5
1.8
1/10
UNDER−0.7 rec
W 2
booklineoverunder
DK2.5
FD2.5
MGM2.5
SCORE2.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+9/10···
1.5+8/10
2.5+1/10
3.5+1/10
4.5+0/10
5.5+0/10
7.5+0/10···
Calvin RidleyTEN · WR
2.5
2
6/10
UNDER−0.5 rec
V DNP
booklineoverunder
DK2.5
FD2.5
MGM2.5
SCORE2.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+10/10··
1.5+7/10
2.5+6/10
3.5+3/10
4.5+2/10·
5.5+0/10··
Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB
2.5
2.9
6/10
OVER+0.4 rec
L 2
booklineoverunder
DK2.5
FD2.5
MGM2.5
SCORE2.5
Tony PollardTEN · RB
1.5
1.9
4/10
OVER+0.4 rec
L 1
booklineoverunder
DK1.5
FD1.5
MGM1.5
SCORE1.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+8/10··
1.5+4/10
2.5+3/10
3.5+1/10
4.5+0/10···
Gunnar HelmTEN · TE
2.5
2.3
5/10
UNDER−0.2 rec
L 4
booklineoverunder
DK2.5
FD2.5
MGM2.5
SCORE2.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+10/10··
1.5+7/10
2.5+5/10
3.5+5/10
4.5+2/10
5.5+2/10·
6.5+0/10···
Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR
2.5
2.4
5/10
UNDER−0.1 rec
L 3
booklineoverunder
DK2.5
FD2.5
MGM2.5
SCORE2.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+9/10···
1.5+6/10
2.5+5/10
3.5+2/10
4.5+2/10
5.5+2/10·
6.5+1/10··
Carnell TateTEN · WR
3.5
1/1
no number
booklineoverunder
DK3.5
FD3.5
MGM3.5
SCORE3.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+1/1···
1.5+1/1
2.5+1/1
3.5+1/1
4.5+0/1
5.5+0/1
8.5+0/1···
Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE
1.5
1/1
no number
booklineoverunder
DK1.5
FD1.5
MGM1.5
SCORE1.5
Omar Cooper Jr.QNYJ · WR
1.5
0/1
no number
booklineoverunder
DK1.5
FD1.5
MGM1.5
althitDKFDSCORECZR
0.5+1/1··
1.5+0/1
2.5+0/1
3.5+0/1
4.5+0/1···
Elic AyomanorTEN · WR
0.5
10/10
no number
booklineoverunder
FD0.5
Touchdownslinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Touchdowns
Anytime TD291-12
Tony PollardTEN · RB
41%
44%
2/10
YES+3 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Breece HallNYJ · RB
47%
37%
5/10
-10 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR
21%from +350
33%
2/10
YES+12 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR
30%from +245
31%
5/10
YES+1 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Elic AyomanorTEN · WR
10%from +750
30%
3/10
YES+20 pts vs book
W 1 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB
27%from +205
26%
1/10
YES-1 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Chimere DikeTEN · WR
9%from +600
23%
3/10
YES+14 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Mason TaylorNYJ · TE
15%
22%
1/10
YES+7 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Calvin RidleyTEN · WR
17%from +450
18%
1/10
YES+1 pts vs book
V DNP
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR
19%
18%
2/10
YES-1 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Braelon AllenNYJ · RB
23%from +265
16%
1/10
-7 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Isaiah DavisNYJ · RB
10%from +550
15%
1/10
YES+5 pts vs book
V DNP
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR
10%from +600
15%
0/10
YES+5 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Gunnar HelmTEN · TE
17%
15%
2/10
-2 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Daniel BellingerTEN · TE
9%from +1200
13%
2/10
YES+4 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Cam WardTEN · QB
11%from +600
13%
2/10
YES+2 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Jelani WoodsNYJ · TE
3%
12%
0/2
YES+9 pts vs book
V DNP
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Kylen GransonTEN · TE
3%from +3500
10%
0/10
YES+7 pts vs book
V DNP
booklineyes
DK
FD
CZR
Jeremy RuckertNYJ · TE
4%from +2500
10%
0/10
YES+6 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Arian SmithNYJ · WR
3%from +3500
8%
0/10
YES+5 pts vs book
L 0 TD
booklineyes
DK
FD
CZR
Geno SmithNYJ · QB
8%from +900
8%
0/10
even with the book
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Andrew BeckNYJ · FB
3%from +2500
6%
2/10
YES+3 pts vs book
V DNP
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
David Martin-RobinsonTEN · TE
3%from +3000
6%
1/10
YES+3 pts vs book
V DNP
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Julius ChestnutTEN · RB
4%from +900
3%
0/10
-1 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Carnell TateTEN · WR
26%from +245
0/1
no number
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Kene NwangwuQNYJ · RB
2%from +2200
0/10
no number
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE
11%from +650
1/1
no number
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Nicholas SingletonTEN · RB
6%from +550
no games since 2024
·
no number
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Omar Cooper Jr.QNYJ · WR
8%from +950
0/1
no number
booklineyes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Kickinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Kicking
FG made10-2
Joey SlyeTEN · PK
1.5
55%
3/10
OVER55% to clear
L 1
booklineoverunder
DK1.5
MGM1.5
Kick pts1
Joey SlyeTEN · PK
6.5
55%
4/10
OVER55% to clear
L 4
booklineoverunder
DK6.5
MGM7.5

Injury report

16 designations · as of 3:45 PM
NYJ · 9
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Kene NwangwuRBQUESTIONABLEBack
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
D'Angelo PondsCBQUESTIONABLECalf
Joseph OssaiDEQUESTIONABLEFoot
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Cedric GrayLBQUESTIONABLEConcussion

Our numbers vs the book

64 legs priced · moneyline 2.6 pts apart · 1 rushing leg past break-even

The read. A pick-em on the line (Titans 1.5) and we make it 1.3: no game-market opinion. Tony Pollard is the leg: 71 rushing yards projected against a 48.5 line, 55.4% over, second only to Henry on the day. Breece Hall runs under, 57 vs 63.5. The touchdown market has three Titans receivers well above the book, Elic Ayomanor 30% vs 10%, Chimere Dike 23% vs 10%, Wan'Dale Robinson 33% vs 22%, which is what a rookie-heavy 2025 receiving corps looks like to a model that has not seen the 2026 depth chart; the book has repriced them and we have not. Cam Ward at 175 passing yards vs a 202.5 line and Wan'Dale Robinson at 65 receiving yards vs 42.5 are the stale rows; both markets show the book's number.

Two things are true on every board tonight and are said once here. First, the anytime-touchdown market is where the biggest gaps sit, and most of them are ours: the touchdown model (a Poisson on expected rush plus receiving scores, fit through 2025) sits under the book on the lead back in nearly every game and over the book on last year's role-holders who have since been demoted. That is the same prior-season-inputs defect the audit logged, showing in the one market that has no line to be anchored to. Second, our projected total is broken this week (league scoring estimated from two games) and is struck out above; ignore it.

Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
1Anytime TD Elic Ayomanor TEN 30%10% 20.2ourspoisson
2Anytime TD Chimere Dike TEN 23%9% 13.5ourspoisson
3Rec 0.5 Elic Ayomanor TEN 50%63% 13.2booknormal
4Anytime TD Wan'Dale Robinson TEN 33%21% 11.4ourspoisson
5Anytime TD Breece Hall NYJ 37%47% 9.6bookpoisson
6Anytime TD Jelani Woods NYJ 12%3% 9.1ourspoisson
7Anytime TD Braelon Allen NYJ 16%23% 7.0bookpoisson
8Anytime TD Mason Taylor NYJ 22%15% 7.0ourspoisson
9Anytime TD Kylen Granson TEN 10%3% 6.7ourspoisson
10Carries 5.5 Braelon Allen NYJ 50%44% 6.3oursnormal
Rushing yards · the one market where our number moves a price
playerourslinegapour P(over)book
Tony Pollard TEN71.049.5+21.5 55.2%48.9%
Breece Hall NYJ57.163.5-6.4 48.4%50.0%
Geno Smith NYJ11.86.5+5.3 50.0%50.4%
Braelon Allen NYJ15.019.5-4.5 48.9%50.0%
Tyjae Spears TEN29.626.5+3.1 50.7%49.6%
Cam Ward TEN8.810.5-1.7 50.0%48.9%
Where the book says our projection is stale · the site shows the book's number on these
playermarketourslinegapslot
Cam Ward TENPass yds174.7204.5-29.8QB
Wan'Dale Robinson TENRec yds64.842.5+22.3WR2
Geno Smith NYJPass yds203.4215.5-12.1QB
Garrett Wilson NYJRec yds54.966.5-11.6WR1
Mason Taylor NYJRec yds32.521.5+11.0TE
Calvin Ridley TENRec yds35.528.5+7.0WR3
Breece Hall NYJRec yds14.220.5-6.3RB
Tony Pollard TENRec yds12.79.5+3.2RB
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. 11 lines have no number from us: Carnell Tate (no history of his own), Kenyon Sadiq (no history of his own), Omar Cooper Jr. (no history of his own), Carnell Tate (no history of his own), Kenyon Sadiq (no history of his own), Omar Cooper Jr. (no history of his own), …. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NYJ 3rd downTEN offense · NYJ defense DEF +20 TEN 32% #32 NYJ #12 39%
NYJ Pass yardsTEN offense · NYJ defense DEF +13 TEN 191 #29 NYJ #16 226
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · TEN defense LINE +12 NYJ 126 #7 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #6
TEN Red zoneTEN offense · NYJ defense OFF +9 TEN 61% #20 NYJ #29 70%
NYJ Run block vs frontTEN offense · NYJ defense FRONT +7 TEN 91 #31 NYJ #24 129
TEN 3rd downNYJ offense · TEN defense DEF +6 NYJ 35% #27 TEN #21 42%
TEN Pass yardsNYJ offense · TEN defense DEF +6 NYJ 164 #32 TEN #26 248
TEN Run gameNYJ offense · TEN defense DEF +6 NYJ -0.06 #29 TEN #23 +0.02
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
NYJ Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · NYJ defense RUSH +2 TEN 3.2 #29 NYJ #27 1.9
NYJ Pass attackNYJ offense · TEN defense OFF +1 NYJ -0.18 #28 TEN #29 +0.17
TEN Pass attackTEN offense · NYJ defense OFF +1 TEN -0.22 #31 NYJ #32 +0.25
NYJ Red zoneNYJ offense · TEN defense OFF +1 NYJ 53% #29 TEN #30 71%
NYJ Run gameTEN offense · NYJ defense DEF +1 TEN -0.06 #27 NYJ #26 +0.03
TEN Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · TEN defense RUSH +0 NYJ 3.0 #25 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #12

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men · 2025 numbers · built 7:40 PM Sep 14

Description, not a prediction. Measured 2026-09-10 against the closing line (nfl-ml/reports/MATCHUP_FEATURE_TEST_2026-09-10.md): none of this changes a projection or a price.

how this works
The call is what each unit chose last season, standardised against that season's league: run rate, pass rate over expected, pace, personnel, motion, play-action; blitz rate, rushers sent, box count, coverage. Measured over 2016-2025, almost every one of these belongs to the coordinator, not the team — so when a caller has changed, the traits that leave with him are shown struck out rather than deleted. Only 4th-down aggression and plays per game are the organisation's. The four battles grade each unit in the thing it is trying to do — run blocking vs the front (yards before contact, stuff rate, power success), the ball-carrier in space, pass protection vs the pass rush (pressure, sack and hit rates), the passing game vs coverage (EPA, success rate, CPOE) — in standard deviations within the season; an edge under 0.4σ is called even. The men are conventional pairings: nobody outside the buildings knows the real assignments. Pass-rush pressure rates and receiver separation repeat well year to year (r 0.57, 0.51); a corner's yards-per-target does not (r 0.20) and should be read loosely. Exposure is how much of last season's snaps behind these grades belongs to men who left or are out — the honest limit of a grade built on last year's roster. None of this is a prediction: on 2026-09-10 these battles were added to the projection models and walked forward against the closing line in every skill market, and changed nothing. They describe the game; the numbers above come from the props models.

The call what NYJ's offense and TEN's defense chose in 2025

NYJ offense: Frank Reich NEW OC · was Tanner Engstrand TEN defense: Gus Bradley NEW DC · was Dennard Wilson
NYJ offense · what they call
run rate50.8%far above
standard-down run rate57.0%far above
pass rate over expected-10.3far below
seconds per play30.7saverage
plays per game59.35average
4th-and-short go rate61.1%average
shotgun70.6%average
no-huddle6.1%average
11 personnel63.8%average
heavy personnel36.2%average
play-action11.9%below
screens4.0%average
RPO10.3%above
motion at snap66.0%above
TEN defense · what they call
man coverage27.2%average
blitz rate23.1%below
pass rushers sent4.26average
defenders in box6.27average
nickel or lighter74.1%average
dime6.8%average

The four battles each unit's grade in the thing it is trying to do · σ within 2025 · positive is good for the unit graded

+0.81σ run blocking vs run frontNYJ +0.62σ +0.20σ
-0.84σ ball-carrier in space vs pursuiteven -0.54σ
-1.36σ pass protection vs pass rushTEN +1.53σ +0.17σ
-1.59σ passing game vs coverageeven -1.46σ
NYJ offenseTEN defense

The men conventional pairings · 2025 rates on the current roster

NYJ receivers
playersnapstgtsharesepyac+
Garrett Wilson3835935.4%3.24-0.15
Arian Smith376164.5%
Adonai Mitchell3745824.2%2.71-0.16
Tim Patrick 2025 w/ JAXOUT336246.2%3.30+0.06
TEN corners
playersnapstgtcmp%y/tgtrtg
Alontae Taylor 2025 w/ NO10589468%6.588
Cordale Flott 2025 w/ NYG7976752%6.978
Marcus Harris3423148%7.671
Jaylon Jones 2025 w/ IND2052857%6.682
NYJ offensive line snaps are the only free individual measure a lineman has
playerpossnapsshareg
Josh MyersC1048100%17
Joe TippmannG1047100%17
Armand MembouT1047100%17
Olumuyiwa FashanuT104099%17
Dylan ParhamG84297%15
TEN pass rush per 100 dropbacks he was on the field for
playerpospass snapsprsprs/100sk/100
Jeffery SimmonsDT439327.32.5
Jacob MartinDE404266.41.4
John Franklin-MyersDE358236.42.1
Jermaine Johnson IIDE378133.40.8
Jaylen HarrellOUTDE213115.22.1
Cedric GrayOUTOLB50371.40.2
NYJ: 30.2% of 2025 offensive snaps belong to men who won't play (29.9% left, 0.2% out) · defense 37.8%TEN: 37.1% of 2025 offensive snaps belong to men who won't play (37.1% left, 0.0% out) · defense 66.1%

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

TEN DEFENSE NYJ OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYJ offense against what it runs into

NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC TEN DEFENSE

NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.

-0.18 #28 Pass attack even #29 +0.17
-0.06 #29 Run game even #23 +0.02
164 #32 Pass yards even #26 248
123 #10 Rush yards even #15 115
3.5 #29 Pass pro vs rush DEF +16 #13 2.5
35% #27 3rd down even #21 42%
53% #29 Red zone even #30 71%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYJpass pro even TENpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk#12
John Franklin-Myers DE 7.5 sk#32
Jacob Martin DE 5.5 sk#66
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
NYJrun block line +12 TENrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
John Franklin-Myers LDE 6.0 tfl#133
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl#6
Jordan Elliott RDT 1.0 tfl#604
Jermaine Johnson II RDE 5.0 tfl#178
Cedric Gray WLB 7.0 tfl#119
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120