how this works
| book | TEN | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| MGM |
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| MGM | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD |
| book | TEN | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR | ||
| SCORE |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 204.5 | ||
| FD | 201.5 | ||
| MGM | 204.5 | ||
| SCORE | 204.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 149.5+ | 5/10 | · | ||||
| 174.5+ | 4/10 | · | · | · | ||
| 199.5+ | 3/10 | |||||
| 249.5+ | 2/10 | |||||
| 299.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 349.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 215.5 | ||
| FD | 212.5 | ||
| MGM | 208.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 149.5+ | 7/10 | · | ||||
| 199.5+ | 5/10 | |||||
| 249.5+ | 2/10 | |||||
| 299.5+ | 0/10 | |||||
| 349.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | |||
| 369.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 | ||
| SCORE | 1.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 1.5+ | 4/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 0/10 | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 0.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 1.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 1/10 | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 31.5 | ||
| MGM | 31.5 | ||
| SCORE | 31.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 30.5 | ||
| MGM | 31.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 19.5 | ||
| MGM | 19.5 | ||
| SCORE | 19.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 19.5 | ||
| MGM | 20.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 49.5 | ||
| FD | 48.5 | ||
| MGM | 48.5 | ||
| SCORE | 49.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | |||
| 24.5+ | 8/10 | · | ||||
| 29.5+ | 8/10 | · | ||||
| 39.5+ | 7/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 6/10 | |||||
| 99.5+ | 3/10 | |||||
| 149.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 6.5 | ||
| FD | 6.5 | ||
| MGM | 6.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 5/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | |||
| 14.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | ||
| 19.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 24.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 29.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | ||
| 74.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 63.5 | ||
| FD | 64.5 | ||
| MGM | 63.5 | ||
| SCORE | 65.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 29.5+ | 9/10 | · | ||||
| 39.5+ | 9/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 7/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 5/10 | · | ||||
| 99.5+ | 3/10 | |||||
| 159.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 26.5 | ||
| FD | 26.5 | ||
| MGM | 25.5 | ||
| SCORE | 24.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 19.5 | ||
| FD | 19.5 | ||
| MGM | 19.5 | ||
| SCORE | 19.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 10.5 | ||
| FD | 9.5 | ||
| MGM | 10.5 | ||
| SCORE | 8.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 5/10 | · | · | |||
| 14.5+ | 3/10 | · | · | · | ||
| 19.5+ | 3/10 | · | ||||
| 24.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 29.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 59.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 16.5 | ||
| MGM | 16.5 | ||
| SCORE | 16.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 13.5 | ||
| MGM | 13.5 | ||
| SCORE | 13.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 5.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 7.5 | ||
| MGM | 7.5 | ||
| SCORE | 6.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 43.5 | ||
| FD | 41.5 | ||
| MGM | 42.5 | ||
| SCORE | 42.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | ||
| 39.5+ | 6/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 4/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 3/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 79.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 139.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 21.5 | ||
| FD | 22.5 | ||
| MGM | 19.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 7/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 7/10 | · | · | |||
| 19.5+ | 7/10 | · | · | |||
| 24.5+ | 5/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 2/10 | |||||
| 99.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 66.5 | ||
| FD | 61.5 | ||
| MGM | 59.5 | ||
| SCORE | 64.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 39.5+ | 8/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 8/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 6/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 5/10 | · | ||||
| 99.5+ | 0/10 | |||||
| 169.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 28.5 | ||
| FD | 27.5 | ||
| MGM | 25.5 | ||
| SCORE | 29.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 5/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 5/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 4/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 4/10 | · | ||||
| 124.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 23.5 | ||
| FD | 20.5 | ||
| MGM | 20.5 | ||
| SCORE | 19.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 6/10 | · | · | |||
| 19.5+ | 2/10 | · | · | |||
| 24.5+ | 2/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 1/10 | |||||
| 99.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 9.5 | ||
| FD | 9.5 | ||
| MGM | 8.5 | ||
| SCORE | 9.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 5/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 4/10 | · | ||||
| 19.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | |||
| 24.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | |||
| 29.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | |||
| 124.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 20.5 | ||
| FD | 20.5 | ||
| MGM | 21.5 | ||
| SCORE | 19.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 7/10 | · | · | |||
| 19.5+ | 6/10 | · | · | |||
| 24.5+ | 4/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 1/10 | |||||
| 99.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 34.5 | ||
| FD | 32.5 | ||
| MGM | 30.5 | ||
| SCORE | 34.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 39.5+ | 5/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 3/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 1/10 | · | ||||
| 79.5+ | 1/10 | · | ||||
| 124.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 16.5 | ||
| FD | 15.5 | ||
| MGM | 15.5 | ||
| SCORE | 18.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 39.5 | ||
| FD | 37.5 | ||
| MGM | 40.5 | ||
| SCORE | 39.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 1/1 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 0/1 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 0/1 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 0/1 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 0/1 | · | ||||
| 79.5+ | 0/1 | · | ||||
| 124.5+ | 0/1 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 14.5 | ||
| FD | 12.5 | ||
| MGM | 14.5 | ||
| SCORE | 14.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 13.5 | ||
| FD | 14.5 | ||
| MGM | 14.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 1/1 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 1/1 | · | · | |||
| 19.5+ | 1/1 | · | · | |||
| 24.5+ | 1/1 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 0/1 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 0/1 | |||||
| 99.5+ | 0/1 | · | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FD | 9.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 5.5 | ||
| FD | 5.5 | ||
| MGM | 5.5 | ||
| SCORE | 5.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | |
| 3.5+ | 8/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 6.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 7.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 11.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 4.5 | ||
| FD | 4.5 | ||
| MGM | 4.5 | ||
| SCORE | 4.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | ||
| 2.5+ | 10/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 8/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 5/10 | ||||
| 6.5+ | 4/10 | · | |||
| 9.5+ | 1/10 | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | |
| 1.5+ | 8/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 4/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 1/10 | · | |||
| 6.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | |
| 1.5+ | 8/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 7.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | ||
| 1.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 2/10 | · | |||
| 5.5+ | 0/10 | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 | ||
| SCORE | 1.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | ||
| 1.5+ | 4/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | ||
| 1.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 5/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 5/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 2/10 | · | |||
| 6.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | |
| 1.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 5/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 2/10 | · | |||
| 6.5+ | 1/10 | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 3.5 | ||
| FD | 3.5 | ||
| MGM | 3.5 | ||
| SCORE | 3.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 1/1 | · | · | · | |
| 1.5+ | 1/1 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 1/1 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 1/1 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 0/1 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 0/1 | ||||
| 8.5+ | 0/1 | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 | ||
| SCORE | 1.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 1/1 | · | · | ||
| 1.5+ | 0/1 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 0/1 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 0/1 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 0/1 | · | · | · |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FD | 0.5 |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 |
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 6.5 | ||
| MGM | 7.5 |
Injury report
16 designations · as of 3:45 PM
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Calf |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
| Cedric Gray | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
Our numbers vs the book
64 legs priced · moneyline 2.6 pts apart · 1 rushing leg past break-even
The read. A pick-em on the line (Titans 1.5) and we make it 1.3: no game-market opinion. Tony Pollard is the leg: 71 rushing yards projected against a 48.5 line, 55.4% over, second only to Henry on the day. Breece Hall runs under, 57 vs 63.5. The touchdown market has three Titans receivers well above the book, Elic Ayomanor 30% vs 10%, Chimere Dike 23% vs 10%, Wan'Dale Robinson 33% vs 22%, which is what a rookie-heavy 2025 receiving corps looks like to a model that has not seen the 2026 depth chart; the book has repriced them and we have not. Cam Ward at 175 passing yards vs a 202.5 line and Wan'Dale Robinson at 65 receiving yards vs 42.5 are the stale rows; both markets show the book's number.
Two things are true on every board tonight and are said once here. First, the anytime-touchdown market is where the biggest gaps sit, and most of them are ours: the touchdown model (a Poisson on expected rush plus receiving scores, fit through 2025) sits under the book on the lead back in nearly every game and over the book on last year's role-holders who have since been demoted. That is the same prior-season-inputs defect the audit logged, showing in the one market that has no line to be anchored to. Second, our projected total is broken this week (league scoring estimated from two games) and is struck out above; ignore it.
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anytime TD | Elic Ayomanor TEN | 30% | 10% | 20.2 | ours | poisson |
| 2 | Anytime TD | Chimere Dike TEN | 23% | 9% | 13.5 | ours | poisson |
| 3 | Rec 0.5 | Elic Ayomanor TEN | 50% | 63% | 13.2 | book | normal |
| 4 | Anytime TD | Wan'Dale Robinson TEN | 33% | 21% | 11.4 | ours | poisson |
| 5 | Anytime TD | Breece Hall NYJ | 37% | 47% | 9.6 | book | poisson |
| 6 | Anytime TD | Jelani Woods NYJ | 12% | 3% | 9.1 | ours | poisson |
| 7 | Anytime TD | Braelon Allen NYJ | 16% | 23% | 7.0 | book | poisson |
| 8 | Anytime TD | Mason Taylor NYJ | 22% | 15% | 7.0 | ours | poisson |
| 9 | Anytime TD | Kylen Granson TEN | 10% | 3% | 6.7 | ours | poisson |
| 10 | Carries 5.5 | Braelon Allen NYJ | 50% | 44% | 6.3 | ours | normal |
| player | ours | line | gap | our P(over) | book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard TEN | 71.0 | 49.5 | +21.5 | 55.2% | 48.9% |
| Breece Hall NYJ | 57.1 | 63.5 | -6.4 | 48.4% | 50.0% |
| Geno Smith NYJ | 11.8 | 6.5 | +5.3 | 50.0% | 50.4% |
| Braelon Allen NYJ | 15.0 | 19.5 | -4.5 | 48.9% | 50.0% |
| Tyjae Spears TEN | 29.6 | 26.5 | +3.1 | 50.7% | 49.6% |
| Cam Ward TEN | 8.8 | 10.5 | -1.7 | 50.0% | 48.9% |
| player | market | ours | line | gap | slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward TEN | Pass yds | 174.7 | 204.5 | -29.8 | QB |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN | Rec yds | 64.8 | 42.5 | +22.3 | WR2 |
| Geno Smith NYJ | Pass yds | 203.4 | 215.5 | -12.1 | QB |
| Garrett Wilson NYJ | Rec yds | 54.9 | 66.5 | -11.6 | WR1 |
| Mason Taylor NYJ | Rec yds | 32.5 | 21.5 | +11.0 | TE |
| Calvin Ridley TEN | Rec yds | 35.5 | 28.5 | +7.0 | WR3 |
| Breece Hall NYJ | Rec yds | 14.2 | 20.5 | -6.3 | RB |
| Tony Pollard TEN | Rec yds | 12.7 | 9.5 | +3.2 | RB |
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men · 2025 numbers · built 7:40 PM Sep 14
Description, not a prediction. Measured 2026-09-10 against the closing line (nfl-ml/reports/MATCHUP_FEATURE_TEST_2026-09-10.md): none of this changes a projection or a price. how this works
The call what NYJ's offense and TEN's defense chose in 2025
The four battles each unit's grade in the thing it is trying to do · σ within 2025 · positive is good for the unit graded
The men conventional pairings · 2025 rates on the current roster
| player | snaps | tgt | share | sep | yac+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 383 | 59 | 35.4% | 3.24 | -0.15 |
| Arian Smith | 376 | 16 | 4.5% | — | — |
| Adonai Mitchell | 374 | 58 | 24.2% | 2.71 | -0.16 |
| Tim Patrick 2025 w/ JAXOUT | 336 | 24 | 6.2% | 3.30 | +0.06 |
| player | snaps | tgt | cmp% | y/tgt | rtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alontae Taylor 2025 w/ NO | 1058 | 94 | 68% | 6.5 | 88 |
| Cordale Flott 2025 w/ NYG | 797 | 67 | 52% | 6.9 | 78 |
| Marcus Harris | 342 | 31 | 48% | 7.6 | 71 |
| Jaylon Jones 2025 w/ IND | 205 | 28 | 57% | 6.6 | 82 |
| player | pos | snaps | share | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Myers | C | 1048 | 100% | 17 |
| Joe Tippmann | G | 1047 | 100% | 17 |
| Armand Membou | T | 1047 | 100% | 17 |
| Olumuyiwa Fashanu | T | 1040 | 99% | 17 |
| Dylan Parham | G | 842 | 97% | 15 |
| player | pos | pass snaps | prs | prs/100 | sk/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Simmons | DT | 439 | 32 | 7.3 | 2.5 |
| Jacob Martin | DE | 404 | 26 | 6.4 | 1.4 |
| John Franklin-Myers | DE | 358 | 23 | 6.4 | 2.1 |
| Jermaine Johnson II | DE | 378 | 13 | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| Jaylen HarrellOUT | DE | 213 | 11 | 5.2 | 2.1 |
| Cedric GrayOUT | OLB | 503 | 7 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
The call what TEN's offense and NYJ's defense chose in 2025
The four battles each unit's grade in the thing it is trying to do · σ within 2025 · positive is good for the unit graded
The men conventional pairings · 2025 rates on the current roster
| player | snaps | tgt | share | sep | yac+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson 2025 w/ NYG | 973 | 140 | 30.3% | 3.43 | +0.39 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 787 | 89 | 18.5% | 2.66 | -0.22 |
| Chimere Dike | 631 | 74 | 13.9% | 3.51 | -0.33 |
| Calvin Ridley | 250 | 36 | 16.8% | 3.20 | +0.62 |
| player | snaps | tgt | cmp% | y/tgt | rtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stephens | 1048 | 85 | 72% | 8.0 | 115 |
| Nahshon Wright 2025 w/ CHI | 1041 | 93 | 60% | 8.0 | 81 |
| Azareye'h Thomas | 311 | 27 | 48% | 7.0 | 76 |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | 280 | 38 | 71% | 5.4 | 78 |
| player | pos | snaps | share | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Skoronski | G | 1056 | 100% | 17 |
| Dan Moore Jr. | T | 949 | 95% | 16 |
| JC Latham | T | 791 | 98% | 13 |
| Austin Deculus | T | 516 | 59% | 13 |
| Austin Schlottmann | C | 362 | 30% | 17 |
| player | pos | pass snaps | prs | prs/100 | sk/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph OssaiOUT | DE | 385 | 20 | 5.2 | 1.3 |
| Will McDonald IV | DE | 375 | 20 | 5.3 | 2.1 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | DE | 247 | 15 | 6.1 | 0.8 |
| Jowon Briggs | DT | 297 | 11 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Jamien Sherwood | LB | 569 | 7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| David Onyemata | DT | 308 | 6 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.