Cleveland Browns
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
BOOK JAC 77%
MODEL JAC 72%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00
· EverBank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 2 – 0 JAC
JAC -7.5
Vegas line (context)
40.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CLE OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
JAC OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CLE OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +29
#3 -0.14
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +12
#13 -0.04
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +12
#19 231
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +26
#1 86
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
even
#27 1.9
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +11
#17 41%
55% #28
Red zone
even
#25 68%
JAC OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#4 -0.13
-0.01 #18
Run game
DEF +13
#5 -0.05
237 #11
Pass yards
DEF +8
#3 189
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#16 116
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +17
#3 3.1
40% #18
3rd down
DEF +10
#8 37%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +8
#20 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 3.1
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #3 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #13 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #3 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #3 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #3 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #3 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #4 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #5 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #4 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #4 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #4 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #4 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.