Arizona Cardinals
@
Los Angeles Chargers
BOOK LAC 83%
MODEL LAC 65%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 16:25
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: ARI 1 – 1 LAC
LAC -11.5
Vegas line (context)
46.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ARI OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
LAC OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ARI OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
DEF +8
#9 -0.09
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +24
#4 -0.07
256 #5
Pass yards
even
#4 195
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +23
#8 105
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#10 2.6
42% #12
3rd down
DEF +8
#4 35%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +23
#3 52%
LAC OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#27 +0.15
+0.02 #11
Run game
OFF +10
#21 +0.01
233 #15
Pass yards
OFF +9
#24 243
122 #12
Rush yards
OFF +13
#25 127
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +25
#29 45%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +9
#21 67%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 1.8
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #9 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #4 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #9 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #9 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #9 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #9 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #27 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #21 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #27 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #27 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #27 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #27 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.