Atlanta Falcons
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
BOOK PIT 61%
MODEL PIT 60%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00
· Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 0 – 2 PIT
PIT -3.0
Vegas line (context)
41.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ATL OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
PIT OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ATL OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
218 #20
Pass yards
OFF +10
#30 261
126 #8
Rush yards
even
#13 113
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
34% #30
3rd down
even
#25 43%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#9 58%
PIT OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#13 -0.03
+0.02 #10
Run game
OFF +15
#25 +0.03
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#15 222
103 #26
Rush yards
even
#24 126
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#2 3.4
41% #14
3rd down
even
#15 40%
66% #11
Red zone
even
#13 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 3.4
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #17 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #20 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #17 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #17 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #17 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #17 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #13 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #25 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #13 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #13 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #13 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #13 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.