Baltimore Ravens
@
Indianapolis Colts
BOOK IND 38%
MODEL IND 54%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00
· Lucas Oil Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 1 IND
BAL -3.5
Vegas line (context)
49.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BAL OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
IND OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BAL OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#31 262
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#7 102
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +11
#26 43%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +17
#5 55%
IND OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +9
#21 +0.07
+0.09 #3
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +21
#29 259
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#10 107
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +22
#30 1.8
43% #7
3rd down
even
#10 38%
68% #7
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 1.8
IND PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #19 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #9 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #19 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #19 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #19 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #19 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #21 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #7 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #21 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #21 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #21 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #21 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.