Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00 · Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 1 – 1 IND
Final BAL 41 – 23 IND
24-17 on this game's sides · 58.5% · break-even at the prices taken 46.9% · the record · lines as of 8:00 PM Sep 13 · projections as of 12:06 PM Sep 13
BAL Adam Randall RB out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Devontez Walker WR q · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 47%
book 41%
29%
59%
book is 6 pts lower
projected BAL 26 – IND 25 · BAL -0.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. A fitted season's rating had already seen this result, so it is not shown as a forecast. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
IND +3opened +3.5
IND +0.8
2/10
—at the line
| book | IND | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR |
48.5opened 47.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR |
40.7%opened +153
ours 47.4%
1/10
IND+6.8 pts vs book
| book | IND | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| MGM |
Passinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Passing
Pass yds25-2
231.5from 229.5
210.5
4/10
UNDER−21.0 yds
W 166
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 231.5 | ||
| FD | 231.5 | ||
| MGM | 224.5 | ||
| SCORE | 234.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 149.5+ | 9/10 | · | ||||
| 174.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | · | ||
| 199.5+ | 7/10 | |||||
| 249.5+ | 4/10 | |||||
| 299.5+ | 1/10 | |||||
| 349.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 399.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
219.5from 214.5
220.3
3/10
UNDER+0.8 yds
L 324
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 219.5 | ||
| FD | 220.5 | ||
| MGM | 216.5 | ||
| SCORE | 224.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 149.5+ | 9/10 | · | ||||
| 199.5+ | 5/10 | |||||
| 249.5+ | 1/10 | |||||
| 299.5+ | 1/10 | · | ||||
| 349.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | |||
| 379.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
Pass TD2
1.5
1.2
6/10
UNDER−0.3 TD
W 1
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 | ||
| SCORE | 1.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 9/10 | ||||
| 1.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 0/10 |
1.5
1.7
3/10
OVER+0.2 TD
L 1
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 | ||
| SCORE | 1.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 1.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 1/10 |
Pass att2
32.5
31.4
2/10
UNDER−1.1 att
W 31
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 32.5 | ||
| MGM | 32.5 | ||
| SCORE | 32.5 |
27.5from 26.5
27.5
3/10
—at the line
—
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 27.5 | ||
| MGM | 27.5 | ||
| SCORE | 27.5 |
Comp2
22.5from 21.5
20.3
2/10
UNDER−2.2 comp
W 19
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 22.5 | ||
| MGM | 21.5 | ||
| SCORE | 22.5 |
17.5from 17.5
18.1
2/10
UNDER+0.6 comp
W 17
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 18.5 | ||
| MGM | 17.5 | ||
| SCORE | 17.5 |
Rushinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Rushing
Rush yds54-3
39.5from 34.5
57.1
2/10
OVER+17.6 yds
W 40
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 39.5 | ||
| FD | 37.5 | ||
| MGM | 37.5 | ||
| SCORE | 39.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | · | ||
| 19.5+ | 5/10 | · | ||||
| 24.5+ | 5/10 | · | ||||
| 29.5+ | 3/10 | · | ||||
| 39.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 0/10 | |||||
| 124.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
11.5
27.8
3/10
OVER+16.3 yds
L 4
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 11.5 | ||
| FD | 10.5 | ||
| MGM | 11.5 | ||
| SCORE | 11.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 4/10 | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 3/10 | · | |||
| 14.5+ | 3/10 | · | · | ||
| 19.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 24.5+ | 1/10 | · | |||
| 29.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 59.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
77.5from 82.5
101
7/10
OVER+23.5 yds
W 144
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 77.5 | ||
| FD | 78.5 | ||
| MGM | 79.5 | ||
| SCORE | 84.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 39.5+ | 10/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 10/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 10/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 8/10 | · | ||||
| 99.5+ | 6/10 | |||||
| 189.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | · | · |
77.5
63.6
4/10
UNDER−13.9 yds
L 98
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 77.5 | ||
| FD | 76.5 | ||
| MGM | 76.5 | ||
| SCORE | 77.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 39.5+ | 9/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 7/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 6/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 6/10 | · | ||||
| 99.5+ | 1/10 | |||||
| 189.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | · | · |
8.5
12.9
3/10
OVER+4.4 yds
W 18
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 8.5 | ||
| FD | 8.5 | ||
| MGM | 8.5 | ||
| SCORE | 9.5 |
Carries4
18.5
16
6/10
UNDER−2.5 carries
L 19
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 18.5 | ||
| MGM | 18.5 | ||
| SCORE | 19.5 |
17.5
19.4
8/10
OVER+1.9 carries
W 24
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 17.5 | ||
| MGM | 18.5 | ||
| SCORE | 16.5 |
6.5
—
4/10
—no number
—
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 6.5 | ||
| MGM | 6.5 | ||
| SCORE | 6.5 |
3.5from 2.5
—
3/10
—no number
—
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 3.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
Receivinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Receiving
Rec yds1014-6
29.5from 45.5
54.7
7/10
OVER+25.2 yds
W 61
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 30.5 | ||
| FD | 29.5 | ||
| MGM | 28.5 | ||
| SCORE | 29.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | ||
| 39.5+ | 7/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 7/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 7/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 6/10 | · | ||||
| 99.5+ | 2/10 | |||||
| 124.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | · |
28.5from 27.5
42.1
7/10
OVER+13.6 yds
W 32
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 28.5 | ||
| FD | 28.5 | ||
| MGM | 30.5 | ||
| SCORE | 29.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | |||
| 19.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | |||
| 24.5+ | 7/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 3/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 1/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 124.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
67.5from 58.5
74.4
7/10
OVER+6.9 yds
W 150
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 67.5 | ||
| FD | 63.5 | ||
| MGM | 67.5 | ||
| SCORE | 64.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 39.5+ | 8/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 8/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 7/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 6/10 | · | ||||
| 99.5+ | 3/10 | |||||
| 179.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
46.5from 44.5
39.7
3/10
UNDER−6.8 yds
W 37
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 46.5 | ||
| FD | 43.5 | ||
| MGM | 45.5 | ||
| SCORE | 44.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 39.5+ | 4/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 3/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 99.5+ | 0/10 | |||||
| 139.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
6.5
12.8
6/10
OVER+6.3 yds
W 19
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 6.5 | ||
| FD | 7.5 | ||
| MGM | 6.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 6/10 | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 4/10 | · | · | ||
| 14.5+ | 4/10 | · | · | ||
| 19.5+ | 2/10 | · | · | ||
| 24.5+ | 1/10 | · | |||
| 29.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | ||
| 124.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
35.5
30.4
2/10
UNDER−5.1 yds
L 49
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 32.5 | ||
| FD | 33.5 | ||
| MGM | 35.5 | ||
| SCORE | 35.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 2/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 0/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 79.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 124.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
26.5from 24.5
21.6
1/10
UNDER−4.9 yds
W 0
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 26.5 | ||
| FD | 25.5 | ||
| MGM | 26.5 | ||
| SCORE | 26.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 6/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 4/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 1/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 1/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 0/10 | · | ||||
| 124.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
11.5from 11.5
14
6/10
OVER+2.5 yds
L 10
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 9.5 | ||
| FD | 11.5 | ||
| MGM | 12.5 | ||
| SCORE | 11.5 |
47.5from 45.5
45.1
1/10
UNDER−2.4 yds
W 13
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 47.5 | ||
| FD | 47.5 | ||
| MGM | 49.5 | ||
| SCORE | 49.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 39.5+ | 3/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 1/10 | |||||
| 59.5+ | 1/10 | · | ||||
| 69.5+ | 1/10 | · | ||||
| 99.5+ | 0/10 | |||||
| 139.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
17.5from 16.5
18
4/10
OVER+0.5 yds
W 23
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 17.5 | ||
| FD | 18.5 | ||
| MGM | 16.5 | ||
| SCORE | 19.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | MGM | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | · | |
| 9.5+ | 8/10 | · | · | |||
| 19.5+ | 4/10 | · | · | |||
| 24.5+ | 3/10 | · | · | |||
| 39.5+ | 1/10 | · | ||||
| 49.5+ | 0/10 | |||||
| 99.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · | · |
Rec10
4.5from 3.5
3.5
2/10
UNDER−1.0 rec
W 2
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 4.5 | ||
| FD | 4.5 | ||
| MGM | 4.5 | ||
| SCORE | 4.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5+ | 9/10 | · | |||
| 2.5+ | 5/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 4/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 6.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 9.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
3.5
2.7
3/10
UNDER−0.8 rec
L 4
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 3.5 | ||
| FD | 3.5 | ||
| MGM | 3.5 | ||
| SCORE | 3.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5+ | 8/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 5/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 6.5+ | 0/10 | · | |||
| 7.5+ | 0/10 | · |
2.5from 3.5
3.1
7/10
OVER+0.6 rec
W 4
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | |
| 1.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 1/10 | · | · | ||
| 6.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
5.5from 4.5
5
2/10
OVER−0.5 rec
W 5
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 5.5 | ||
| FD | 4.5 | ||
| MGM | 5.5 | ||
| SCORE | 5.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | |
| 2.5+ | 9/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 4/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 6.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 10.5+ | 0/10 | · | · |
3.5
4
6/10
OVER+0.5 rec
W 6
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 3.5 | ||
| FD | 3.5 | ||
| MGM | 3.5 | ||
| SCORE | 3.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5+ | 9/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 7/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 4/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 2/10 | ||||
| 6.5+ | 1/10 | · | |||
| 7.5+ | 0/10 | · | · |
2.5
2.2
6/10
UNDER−0.3 rec
L 3
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 9/10 | · | · | · | |
| 1.5+ | 9/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 6/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | ||
| 6.5+ | 0/10 | · | · |
1.5
1.7
5/10
OVER+0.2 rec
L 1
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 2.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
1.5
1.7
3/10
OVER+0.2 rec
L 0
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| FD | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 2.5 | ||
| SCORE | 2.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 6/10 | · | · | ||
| 1.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 0/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 0/10 | · | |||
| 5.5+ | 0/10 | · | · |
4.5
4.4
5/10
UNDER−0.1 rec
W 3
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 4.5 | ||
| FD | 4.5 | ||
| MGM | 5.5 | ||
| SCORE | 4.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5+ | 10/10 | · | · | · | |
| 2.5+ | 9/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 5/10 | ||||
| 4.5+ | 5/10 | ||||
| 5.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 6.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 10.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
1.5from 1.5
1.4
3/10
UNDER−0.1 rec
W 1
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 0.5 | ||
| FD | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 | ||
| SCORE | 1.5 |
| alt | hit | DK | FD | SCORE | CZR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 6/10 | · | · | ||
| 1.5+ | 3/10 | ||||
| 2.5+ | 1/10 | ||||
| 3.5+ | 0/10 | · | · | · |
Touchdownslinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Touchdowns
Anytime TD271-6
64%from -205
56%
6/10
—-8 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
64%from -175
55%
5/10
—-9 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
37%from +175
40%
5/10
YES+3 pts vs book
W 1 TD
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
32%from +180
31%
2/10
—-1 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
22%from +265
30%
4/10
YES+8 pts vs book
L 0 TD
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
21%from +300
22%
0/10
YES+1 pts vs book
L 0 TD
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
35%from +225
20%
2/10
—-15 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
26%from +270
19%
2/10
—-7 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
27%from +205
18%
2/10
—-9 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
24%from +330
14%
1/10
—-10 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
15%from +475
14%
2/10
—-1 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
18%from +450
13%
2/10
—-5 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
5%from +2200
10%
1/10
YES+5 pts vs book
L 0 TD
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| CZR |
11%from +750
10%
1/10
—-1 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
6%from +1300
8%
1/10
YES+2 pts vs book
L 0 TD
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
8%from +1000
6%
0/10
—-2 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
8%from +900
5%
0/10
—-3 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
5%from +1100
5%
0/7
YESeven with the book
L 0 TD
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| CZR |
4%from +1400
5%
1/10
YES+1 pts vs book
L 0 TD
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
5%from +2200
4%
0/10
—-1 pts vs book
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
5%from +1100
—
0/5
—no number
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| CZR |
4%from +1300
no games since 2024—
·
—no number
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
8%from +750
—
3/10
—no number
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
7%from +850
no games since 2024—
·
—no number
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
5%from +1600
no games since 2024—
·
—no number
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
4%from +1600
—
0/1
—no number
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
9%from +700
—
0/1
—no number
—
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | |||
| FD | |||
| MGM | |||
| CZR |
Kickinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Kicking
FG made22-2
1.5
52%
6/10
OVER52% to clear
L 1
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 |
1.5
58%
6/10
OVER58% to clear
W 2
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | ||
| MGM | 1.5 |
Kick pts2
7.5
56%
6/10
OVER56% to clear
W 11
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 7.5 | ||
| MGM | 7.5 |
6.5
57%
5/10
OVER57% to clear
L 5
| book | line | over | under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 6.5 | ||
| MGM | 7.5 |
Injury report
14 designations · as of 3:45 PM
BAL · 8
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g) | |||
| Devontez Walker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee - ACL |
IND · 6
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Austin Ajiake | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
59 legs priced · moneyline 6.8 pts apart · 1 rushing leg past break-even
The read. Two things stand out. Our moneyline read is 8.4 points off the book toward Baltimore, the second-widest game gap of the day, and it is a rating opinion, not a claim. And Derrick Henry projects 101 rushing yards against a 79.5 line, 55.2% over: the strongest rushing-yards leg on the whole Sunday slate. Jonathan Taylor runs the other way, 63.6 against 76.5, 46.9%. The receiving numbers are stale in the way we now expect at Week 1: Keenan Allen projects 42 receiving yards on a 27.5 line and the book is telling us his Indianapolis role is smaller than his 2025 one; those markets publish the book's number, so nothing is mispriced, but the context beside the line is wrong. Daniel Jones at 210 passing yards vs 231.5 is the same story from the other side.
Two things are true on every board tonight and are said once here. First, the anytime-touchdown market is where the biggest gaps sit, and most of them are ours: the touchdown model (a Poisson on expected rush plus receiving scores, fit through 2025) sits under the book on the lead back in nearly every game and over the book on last year's role-holders who have since been demoted. That is the same prior-season-inputs defect the audit logged, showing in the one market that has no line to be anchored to. Second, our projected total is broken this week (league scoring estimated from two games) and is struck out above; ignore it.
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anytime TD | Mark Andrews BAL | 20% | 35% | 15.0 | book | poisson |
| 2 | Anytime TD | Rashod Bateman BAL | 14% | 24% | 9.4 | book | poisson |
| 3 | Anytime TD | Lamar Jackson BAL | 18% | 27% | 9.1 | book | poisson |
| 4 | Anytime TD | Jonathan Taylor IND | 55% | 64% | 8.4 | book | poisson |
| 5 | Anytime TD | Derrick Henry BAL | 56% | 64% | 8.3 | book | poisson |
| 6 | Anytime TD | Alec Pierce IND | 30% | 22% | 8.2 | ours | poisson |
| 7 | Anytime TD | Josh Downs IND | 19% | 26% | 6.5 | book | poisson |
| 8 | Anytime TD | Chris Moore BAL | 10% | 5% | 5.5 | ours | poisson |
| 9 | Anytime TD | Daniel Jones IND | 13% | 18% | 5.4 | book | poisson |
| 10 | Rush yds 77.5 | Derrick Henry BAL | 56% | 50% | 5.2 | ours | normal |
Rushing yards · the one market where our number moves a price
| player | ours | line | gap | our P(over) | book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL | 101.0 | 77.5 | +23.5 | 55.7% | 50.4% |
| Lamar Jackson BAL | 57.1 | 39.5 | +17.6 | 50.0% | 47.8% |
| Daniel Jones IND | 27.8 | 11.5 | +16.3 | 50.0% | 48.4% |
| Jonathan Taylor IND | 63.6 | 77.5 | -13.9 | 46.7% | 49.6% |
| Justice Hill BAL | 12.9 | 8.5 | +4.4 | 51.1% | 49.4% |
Where the book says our projection is stale · the site shows the book's number on these
| player | market | ours | line | gap | slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones IND | Pass yds | 210.5 | 231.5 | -21.0 | QB |
| Keenan Allen IND | Rec yds | 42.1 | 28.5 | +13.6 | WR3 |
| Zay Flowers BAL | Rec yds | 74.4 | 67.5 | +6.9 | WR1 |
| Josh Downs IND | Rec yds | 39.7 | 46.5 | -6.8 | WR2 |
| Derrick Henry BAL | Rec yds | 12.8 | 6.5 | +6.3 | RB |
| Mark Andrews BAL | Rec yds | 30.4 | 35.5 | -5.1 | TE |
| Rashod Bateman BAL | Rec yds | 21.6 | 26.5 | -4.9 | WR2 |
| Justice Hill BAL | Rec yds | 14.0 | 11.5 | +2.5 | RB |
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. 9 lines have no number from us: Lamar Jackson (this market is not projected for him), Daniel Jones (this market is not projected for him), DJ Giddens (no history of his own), Deion Burks (no history of his own), Devontez Walker (no history of his own), Elijah Sarratt (no history of his own), …. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · BAL defense
IND 1.8 #6
BAL #28 1.8
IND
Pass yardsIND offense · BAL defense
IND 240 #8
BAL #29 259
IND
Red zoneBAL offense · IND defense
BAL 60% #22
IND #5 55%
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · IND defense
BAL 162 #1
IND #17 117
BAL
3rd downBAL offense · IND defense
BAL 41% #15
IND #26 43%
BAL
Run block vs frontIND offense · BAL defense
IND 116 #18
BAL #7 106
IND
Pass attackIND offense · BAL defense
IND +0.06 #12
BAL #21 +0.07
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · IND defense
BAL +0.10 #2
IND #9 -0.05
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
IND
Pass attackBAL offense · IND defense
BAL -0.04 #24
IND #19 +0.04
IND
Run gameIND offense · BAL defense
IND +0.09 #3
BAL #7 -0.05
IND
3rd downIND offense · BAL defense
IND 43% #7
BAL #10 38%
IND
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · IND defense
BAL 2.5 #20
IND #17 2.2
BAL
Pass yardsBAL offense · IND defense
BAL 193 #28
IND #31 262
BAL
Red zoneIND offense · BAL defense
IND 68% #7
BAL #7 55%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men · 2025 numbers · built 7:40 PM Sep 14
Description, not a prediction. Measured 2026-09-10 against the closing line (nfl-ml/reports/MATCHUP_FEATURE_TEST_2026-09-10.md): none of this changes a projection or a price. how this works
The call is what each unit chose last season, standardised against that season's league: run rate, pass rate over expected, pace, personnel, motion, play-action; blitz rate, rushers sent, box count, coverage. Measured over 2016-2025, almost every one of these belongs to the coordinator, not the team — so when a caller has changed, the traits that leave with him are shown struck out rather than deleted. Only 4th-down aggression and plays per game are the organisation's. The four battles grade each unit in the thing it is trying to do — run blocking vs the front (yards before contact, stuff rate, power success), the ball-carrier in space, pass protection vs the pass rush (pressure, sack and hit rates), the passing game vs coverage (EPA, success rate, CPOE) — in standard deviations within the season; an edge under 0.4σ is called even. The men are conventional pairings: nobody outside the buildings knows the real assignments. Pass-rush pressure rates and receiver separation repeat well year to year (r 0.57, 0.51); a corner's yards-per-target does not (r 0.20) and should be read loosely. Exposure is how much of last season's snaps behind these grades belongs to men who left or are out — the honest limit of a grade built on last year's roster. None of this is a prediction: on 2026-09-10 these battles were added to the projection models and walked forward against the closing line in every skill market, and changed nothing. They describe the game; the numbers above come from the props models.
The call what BAL's offense and IND's defense chose in 2025
BAL offense: Declan Doyle NEW OC · was Todd Monken
IND defense: Lou Anarumo
BAL offense · what they call
run rate51.0%far above
standard-down run rate56.1%far above
pass rate over expected-8.3far below
seconds per play32.4sabove
plays per game56.24far below
4th-and-short go rate57.9%average
shotgun65.8%average
no-huddle2.2%average
11 personnel29.9%far below
heavy personnel70.1%far above
play-action12.5%below
screens4.1%average
RPO5.9%average
motion at snap55.8%average
IND defense · what they call
man coverage37.8%above
blitz rate28.9%average
pass rushers sent4.32average
defenders in box6.20average
nickel or lighter79.9%above
dime13.5%average
The four battles each unit's grade in the thing it is trying to do · σ within 2025 · positive is good for the unit graded
+0.90σ
run blocking vs run fronteven
+0.70σ
+0.17σ
ball-carrier in space vs pursuitIND +0.66σ
+0.83σ
-0.65σ
pass protection vs pass rusheven
-0.50σ
+0.42σ
passing game vs coverageBAL +0.76σ
-0.34σ
BAL offenseIND defense
The men conventional pairings · 2025 rates on the current roster
BAL receivers
| player | snaps | tgt | share | sep | yac+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowersquestionable | 878 | 118 | 29.9% | 3.57 | +0.40 |
| Rashod Bateman | 550 | 38 | 11.9% | 2.62 | -0.70 |
| Chris Moore 2025 w/ WAS | 429 | 23 | 9.0% | 2.10 | +1.85 |
| Devontez WalkerOUT | 163 | 8 | 4.3% | — | — |
IND corners
| player | snaps | tgt | cmp% | y/tgt | rtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charvarius Ward | 459 | 48 | 56% | 7.6 | 84 |
| Sauce Gardner 2025 w/ NYJ | 410 | 28 | 46% | 8.0 | 82 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt 2025 w/ CIN | 348 | 29 | 66% | 8.3 | 102 |
| Johnathan Edwards | 313 | 28 | 68% | 10.2 | 84 |
BAL offensive line snaps are the only free individual measure a lineman has
| player | pos | snaps | share | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Simpson | G | 1016 | 97% | 17 |
| Roger Rosengarten | T | 1014 | 100% | 17 |
| Andrew Vorhees | G | 968 | 95% | 17 |
| Ronnie Stanley | T | 857 | 89% | 16 |
| Ethan Pocic | C | 825 | 96% | 13 |
IND pass rush per 100 dropbacks he was on the field for
| player | pos | pass snaps | prs | prs/100 | sk/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laiatu Latu | DE | 475 | 27 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| DeForest Buckner | DT | 305 | 20 | 6.6 | 1.3 |
| Arden Key | DE | 290 | 18 | 6.2 | 1.4 |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | DT | 333 | 14 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| Grover Stewart | DT | 345 | 10 | 2.9 | 0.1 |
| Jaylahn Tuimoloau | DE | 126 | 9 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
The call what IND's offense and BAL's defense chose in 2025
IND offense: Jim Bob Cooter
BAL defense: Anthony Weaver NEW DC · was Zach Orr
IND offense · what they call
run rate41.8%average
standard-down run rate45.4%average
pass rate over expected-0.7average
seconds per play31.4saverage
plays per game59.47average
4th-and-short go rate75.0%far above
shotgun72.5%average
no-huddle4.0%average
11 personnel63.4%average
heavy personnel36.5%average
play-action17.7%above
screens3.5%below
RPO9.6%above
motion at snap54.7%average
BAL defense · what they call
man coverage32.7%average
blitz rate24.6%average
pass rushers sent4.24below
defenders in box6.23average
nickel or lighter88.7%far above
dime24.8%far above
The four battles each unit's grade in the thing it is trying to do · σ within 2025 · positive is good for the unit graded
+0.52σ
run blocking vs run frontIND +0.54σ
-0.03σ
+0.59σ
ball-carrier in space vs pursuiteven
+0.54σ
+0.52σ
pass protection vs pass rushIND +1.44σ
-0.91σ
+0.23σ
passing game vs coverageIND +0.52σ
-0.29σ
IND offenseBAL defense
The men conventional pairings · 2025 rates on the current roster
IND receivers
| player | snaps | tgt | share | sep | yac+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Piercequestionable | 814 | 84 | 17.6% | 2.11 | +0.87 |
| Keenan Allen 2025 w/ LAC | 630 | 122 | 22.1% | 2.66 | +0.49 |
| Josh Downs | 594 | 88 | 17.5% | 2.54 | -0.14 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 2025 w/ MIA | 386 | 20 | 5.2% | — | — |
BAL corners
| player | snaps | tgt | cmp% | y/tgt | rtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Wiggins | 1029 | 105 | 62% | 7.0 | 73 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 1003 | 51 | 61% | 5.3 | 85 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 880 | 90 | 66% | 9.2 | 80 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 557 | 55 | 56% | 6.8 | 88 |
IND offensive line snaps are the only free individual measure a lineman has
| player | pos | snaps | share | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quenton Nelson | G | 1038 | 97% | 17 |
| Matt Goncalves | G | 1007 | 100% | 16 |
| Bernhard Raimann | T | 985 | 97% | 16 |
| Tanor Bortolini | C | 937 | 92% | 16 |
| Jalen Travis | T | 315 | 30% | 17 |
BAL pass rush per 100 dropbacks he was on the field for
| player | pos | pass snaps | prs | prs/100 | sk/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calais Campbell | DE | 317 | 18 | 5.7 | 2.1 |
| Mike Green | OLB | 418 | 16 | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| Tavius Robinson | OLB | 261 | 13 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| Trey Hendrickson | OLB | 181 | 12 | 6.6 | 2.2 |
| Travis Jones | NT | 477 | 12 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Roquan Smith | LB | 602 | 7 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
BAL: 39.0% of 2025 offensive snaps belong to men who won't play (37.5% left, 1.5% out) · defense 28.3%IND: 19.2% of 2025 offensive snaps belong to men who won't play (19.1% left, 0.1% out) · defense 60.8%
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
IND DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#31 262
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#7 102
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +11
#26 43%
60% #22
Red zone
DEF +17
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
even
INDpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#24
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#96
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#89
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
BALrun block
line +16
INDrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#141
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#207
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#61
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#20
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
OFF +9
#21 +0.07
+0.09 #3
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +21
#29 259
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#10 107
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#28 1.8
43% #7
3rd down
even
#10 38%
68% #7
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
line +22
BALpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#49
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#70
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#83
1.8 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
INDrun block
front +11
BALrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#443
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#56
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#63
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#328
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#179
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106