Chicago Bears
@
Carolina Panthers
BOOK CAR 43%
MODEL CAR 48%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00
· Bank of America Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 2 – 0 CAR
CHI -2.5
Vegas line (context)
44.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CHI OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
CAR OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CHI OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
OFF +14
#24 +0.11
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +20
#24 +0.02
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#14 215
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +17
#20 123
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +25
#28 1.8
43% #11
3rd down
OFF +21
#32 48%
66% #10
Red zone
even
#12 60%
CAR OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
even
#18 +0.03
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
194 #27
Pass yards
even
#22 239
116 #19
Rush yards
OFF +8
#27 135
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#22 2.1
36% #25
3rd down
even
#19 41%
59% #24
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 2.1
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #24 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #24 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #24 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #24 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #24 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #24 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #18 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #19 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #18 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #18 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #18 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #18 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.