San Francisco 49ers
@
Los Angeles Rams
DIV
BOOK LAR 62%
MODEL LAR 58%
Week 1 · 2026-09-10 · 20:35
· Melbourne Cricket Ground (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 6 – 5 LAR
LAR -3.5
Vegas line (context)
48.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
SF OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
LAR OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
SF OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +14
#20 235
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +12
#12 111
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
51% #1
3rd down
even
#6 36%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#8 56%
LAR OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +23
#25 +0.11
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +15
#22 +0.01
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +21
#23 242
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +30
#32 1.2
40% #16
3rd down
even
#20 41%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +8
#14 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
SF PASS RUSH
vs
LAR PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
1.4 #2
sacks allowed /g
#9 1.2
LAR PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sacks '25
Byron Young LB
12.0 sacks '25
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #10 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #12 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #10 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #10 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #10 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #10 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
LAR
Matthew Stafford QB
vs #25 PASS D
282.1 pass y/g 4/10
Kyren Williams RB
vs #22 RUN D
71.8 rush y/g 5/10
Puka Nacua WR1
vs #25 PASS D
107.7 rec y/g 5/10
Davante Adams WR2
vs #25 PASS D
57.3 rec y/g 7/10
Jordan Whittington WR3
vs #25 PASS D
12.1 rec y/g 3/10
Colby Parkinson TE
vs #25 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 7/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.