21-37 on this game's sides · 36.2% · break-even at the prices taken 42.3% · 4 void · reconstructed after kickoff · the record · lines as of 8:00 PM Sep 10 · projections as of 8:01 PM Sep 10
SFDe'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
LAR win probability
ours 52%book 66%
44%
74%
book is 14 pts higher
projected SF 23 – LAR 24 · LAR -0.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. A fitted season's rating had already seen this result, so it is not shown as a forecast. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Passinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Passing
Pass yds21-7
Brock PurdySF · QB
236.5from 245.5
240.2
5/10
OVER+3.7 yds
L205
book
line
over
under
DK
236.5
FD
238.5
MGM
240.5
SCORE
234.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
149.5+
9/10
·
·
174.5+
8/10
·
·
·
199.5+
7/10
249.5+
5/10
299.5+
2/10
349.5+
0/10
·
399.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
258.5from 265.5
259
7/10
OVER+0.5 yds
L155
book
line
over
under
DK
262.5
FD
258.5
MGM
258.5
SCORE
254.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
149.5+
9/10
·
·
·
·
174.5+
8/10
·
·
·
199.5+
8/10
249.5+
7/10
299.5+
2/10
349.5+
2/10
·
429.5+
1/10
·
·
·
·
Pass TD2
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
1.5
1.8
9/10
OVER+0.3 TD
L0
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
1.5
MGM
1.5
SCORE
1.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
0.5+
9/10
1.5+
9/10
2.5+
5/10
3.5+
2/10
4.5+
0/10
·
·
Brock PurdySF · QB
1.5
1.6
7/10
OVER+0.1 TD
W3
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
1.5
MGM
1.5
SCORE
1.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
0.5+
9/10
1.5+
7/10
2.5+
5/10
3.5+
1/10
Pass att2
Brock PurdySF · QB
33.5
29.4
4/10
UNDER−4.1 att
L34
book
line
over
under
DK
33.5
MGM
33.5
SCORE
33.5
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
34.5
34.7
6/10
OVER+0.2 att
L25
book
line
over
under
DK
34.5
MGM
34.5
SCORE
34.5
Comp2
Brock PurdySF · QB
21.5
19.6
7/10
UNDER−1.9 comp
L25
book
line
over
under
DK
21.5
MGM
21.5
SCORE
21.5
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
22.5from 23.5
23.1
5/10
OVER+0.6 comp
L15
book
line
over
under
DK
22.5
MGM
22.5
SCORE
22.5
Rushinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Rushing
Rush yds81-7
Brock PurdySF · QB
19.5from 15.5
13.3
4/10
UNDER−6.2 yds
L29
book
line
over
under
DK
19.5
FD
18.5
MGM
18.5
SCORE
19.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
4.5+
8/10
·
·
·
·
19.5+
4/10
·
24.5+
3/10
·
29.5+
1/10
·
39.5+
1/10
·
49.5+
0/10
·
124.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
0.5
4
3/10
OVER+3.5 yds
L-1
book
line
over
under
DK
0.5
FD
0.5
SCORE
0.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
0.5+
3/10
·
·
4.5+
1/10
·
·
9.5+
0/10
·
14.5+
0/10
·
·
19.5+
0/10
·
24.5+
0/10
·
·
Kyren WilliamsLAR · RB
56.5from 56.5
61.5
8/10
OVER+5.0 yds
L41
book
line
over
under
DK
53.5
FD
54.5
MGM
56.5
SCORE
56.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
19.5+
10/10
·
·
·
24.5+
10/10
·
29.5+
10/10
·
39.5+
10/10
·
49.5+
8/10
99.5+
0/10
139.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Blake CorumLAR · RB
42.5from 37.5
39.3
7/10
UNDER−3.2 yds
L54
book
line
over
under
DK
41.5
FD
42.5
MGM
42.5
SCORE
44.5
Christian McCaffreySF · RB
59.5
56.4
7/10
UNDER−3.1 yds
L68
book
line
over
under
DK
59.5
FD
58.5
MGM
58.5
SCORE
59.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
14.5+
10/10
·
·
·
·
24.5+
9/10
·
29.5+
9/10
·
39.5+
8/10
·
49.5+
8/10
99.5+
3/10
179.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Deebo SamuelSF · WR
9.5from 7.5
—
2/10
—no number
—
book
line
over
under
DK
9.5
FD
9.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
CZR
4.5+
2/10
·
·
9.5+
2/10
14.5+
1/10
·
19.5+
1/10
24.5+
1/10
·
29.5+
0/10
69.5+
0/10
·
·
Kaelon BlackSF · RB
9.5
—
1/1
—no number
—
book
line
over
under
MGM
9.5
Puka NacuaLAR · WR
1.5from 2.5
—
3/10
—no number
—
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
2.5
SCORE
0.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
CZR
1.5+
3/10
·
·
4.5+
3/10
·
·
9.5+
2/10
14.5+
2/10
·
19.5+
1/10
·
24.5+
0/10
·
·
39.5+
0/10
·
·
Carries4
Christian McCaffreySF · RB
15.5
13.7
6/10
UNDER−1.8 carries
W10
book
line
over
under
DK
15.5
SCORE
16.5
Blake CorumLAR · RB
9.5
7.9
6/10
UNDER−1.6 carries
L10
book
line
over
under
DK
9.5
MGM
9.5
SCORE
9.5
Kyren WilliamsLAR · RB
12.5
13.2
6/10
OVER+0.7 carries
L11
book
line
over
under
DK
13.5
MGM
12.5
SCORE
12.5
Brock PurdySF · QB
3.5
—
5/10
—no number
—
book
line
over
under
DK
3.5
SCORE
4.5
Receivinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Receiving
Rec yds1516-10
Puka NacuaLAR · WR
91.5from 89.5
-0.1
4/10
UNDER−91.6 yds
W74
book
line
over
under
DK
91.5
FD
90.5
MGM
88.5
SCORE
89.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
19.5+
10/10
·
·
·
·
39.5+
10/10
·
49.5+
9/10
59.5+
9/10
·
99.5+
3/10
149.5+
3/10
199.5+
1/10
·
·
·
·
Davante AdamsLAR · WR
53.5from 50.5
-0.1
5/10
UNDER−53.6 yds
W26
book
line
over
under
DK
53.5
FD
53.5
MGM
51.5
SCORE
54.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
9.5+
9/10
·
·
·
·
39.5+
5/10
·
49.5+
5/10
59.5+
4/10
·
69.5+
2/10
·
99.5+
0/10
149.5+
0/10
·
·
·
Mike EvansSF · WR
49.5from 47.5
-0.1
4/10
UNDER−49.6 yds
W49
book
line
over
under
DK
49.5
FD
49.5
MGM
49.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
9.5+
9/10
·
·
·
·
39.5+
5/10
·
49.5+
4/10
59.5+
2/10
·
69.5+
2/10
·
99.5+
1/10
149.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Christian McCaffreySF · RB
39.5
-0.1
5/10
UNDER−39.6 yds
W20
book
line
over
under
DK
39.5
FD
39.5
MGM
41.5
SCORE
39.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
9.5+
10/10
·
·
·
·
39.5+
5/10
·
49.5+
3/10
59.5+
2/10
·
69.5+
0/10
·
79.5+
0/10
·
129.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
George KittleSF · TE
33.5from 38.5
-0.1
7/10
UNDER−33.6 yds
W12
book
line
over
under
DK
33.5
FD
33.5
MGM
33.5
SCORE
34.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
9.5+
10/10
·
·
·
39.5+
7/10
·
49.5+
6/10
59.5+
6/10
·
69.5+
4/10
·
79.5+
3/10
·
124.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Deebo SamuelSF · WR
27.5from 31.5
-0.1
8/10
UNDER−27.6 yds
L48
book
line
over
under
DK
27.5
FD
28.5
MGM
27.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
4.5+
10/10
·
·
·
·
19.5+
10/10
·
·
39.5+
6/10
·
49.5+
3/10
59.5+
3/10
·
69.5+
1/10
·
124.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Terrance FergusonLAR · TE
24.5from 21.5
-0.1
5/10
UNDER−24.6 yds
W0
book
line
over
under
DK
22.5
FD
24.5
MGM
23.5
SCORE
24.5
Colby ParkinsonLAR · TE
18.5from 22.5
-0.1
8/10
UNDER−18.6 yds
W6
book
line
over
under
DK
18.5
FD
18.5
MGM
17.5
SCORE
19.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
4.5+
10/10
·
·
·
·
9.5+
9/10
·
·
19.5+
8/10
·
·
39.5+
4/10
·
49.5+
2/10
59.5+
1/10
·
124.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Jake TongesQSF · TE
9.5from 10.5
27.9
7/10
OVER+18.4 yds
VDNP
book
line
over
under
DK
7.5
FD
9.5
MGM
8.5
SCORE
9.5
Tyler HigbeeLAR · TE
15.5from 13.5
-0.1
7/10
UNDER−15.6 yds
W12
book
line
over
under
DK
15.5
FD
16.5
MGM
14.5
SCORE
17.5
Kyren WilliamsLAR · RB
10.5
-0.1
6/10
UNDER−10.6 yds
L24
book
line
over
under
DK
9.5
FD
10.5
MGM
11.5
SCORE
10.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
4.5+
8/10
·
·
·
·
9.5+
7/10
·
19.5+
3/10
·
·
24.5+
1/10
·
·
29.5+
1/10
·
·
39.5+
0/10
·
124.5+
0/10
·
·
·
·
Demarcus RobinsonSF · WR
9.5from 13.5
-0.1
7/10
UNDER−9.6 yds
L50
book
line
over
under
DK
9.5
FD
9.5
MGM
9.5
SCORE
9.5
Blake CorumLAR · RB
2.5from 3.5
-0.1
3/10
UNDER−2.6 yds
W0
book
line
over
under
DK
2.5
FD
2.5
MGM
2.5
Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WR
5.5from 8.5
6.6
5/10
OVER+1.1 yds
W8
book
line
over
under
DK
6.5
FD
5.5
MGM
5.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
4.5+
6/10
·
·
·
9.5+
2/10
·
·
14.5+
2/10
·
·
19.5+
0/10
·
·
24.5+
0/10
·
29.5+
0/10
·
·
124.5+
0/10
·
·
·
Kyle JuszczykSF · FB
6.5from 4.5
—
7/10
—no number
—
book
line
over
under
DK
6.5
FD
6.5
MGM
7.5
Rec15
Puka NacuaLAR · WR
7.5
-0
3/10
UNDER−7.5 rec
W5
book
line
over
under
DK
7.5
FD
7.5
MGM
7.5
SCORE
6.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
2.5+
10/10
·
·
·
4.5+
10/10
5.5+
7/10
6.5+
6/10
7.5+
3/10
8.5+
3/10
13.5+
0/10
·
·
Christian McCaffreySF · RB
4.5
-0
7/10
UNDER−4.5 rec
L5
book
line
over
under
DK
4.5
FD
4.5
MGM
4.5
SCORE
4.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
1.5+
9/10
·
·
2.5+
9/10
3.5+
9/10
4.5+
7/10
5.5+
4/10
6.5+
2/10
11.5+
0/10
·
·
·
Davante AdamsLAR · WR
4.5
-0
4/10
UNDER−4.5 rec
W3
book
line
over
under
DK
4.5
FD
4.5
MGM
4.5
SCORE
4.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
1.5+
9/10
·
·
2.5+
9/10
3.5+
8/10
4.5+
4/10
5.5+
1/10
6.5+
0/10
9.5+
0/10
·
·
George KittleSF · TE
3.5
-0
9/10
UNDER−3.5 rec
W2
book
line
over
under
DK
3.5
FD
3.5
MGM
3.5
SCORE
3.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
1.5+
10/10
2.5+
9/10
3.5+
9/10
4.5+
6/10
5.5+
5/10
6.5+
3/10
·
9.5+
0/10
·
·
·
Mike EvansSF · WR
3.5
-0
7/10
UNDER−3.5 rec
L6
book
line
over
under
DK
3.5
FD
3.5
MGM
3.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
1.5+
9/10
2.5+
8/10
3.5+
7/10
4.5+
6/10
5.5+
3/10
6.5+
1/10
8.5+
1/10
·
·
Colby ParkinsonLAR · TE
2.5
-0
7/10
UNDER−2.5 rec
W1
book
line
over
under
DK
2.5
FD
2.5
MGM
1.5
SCORE
2.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
0.5+
10/10
·
·
1.5+
9/10
2.5+
7/10
3.5+
6/10
4.5+
2/10
5.5+
1/10
·
·
Deebo SamuelSF · WR
2.5
-0
8/10
UNDER−2.5 rec
L6
book
line
over
under
DK
2.5
FD
2.5
MGM
2.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
0.5+
10/10
·
·
·
1.5+
10/10
2.5+
8/10
3.5+
6/10
4.5+
4/10
5.5+
2/10
·
7.5+
0/10
·
·
·
Demarcus RobinsonSF · WR
1.5
-0
6/10
UNDER−1.5 rec
L2
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
1.5
MGM
0.5
SCORE
1.5
Jake TongesQSF · TE
1.5
-0
7/10
UNDER−1.5 rec
VDNP
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
1.5
MGM
1.5
SCORE
1.5
Kyren WilliamsLAR · RB
1.5
-0
6/10
UNDER−1.5 rec
L3
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
1.5
MGM
1.5
SCORE
1.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
0.5+
9/10
·
·
1.5+
6/10
2.5+
4/10
3.5+
0/10
4.5+
0/10
·
·
5.5+
0/10
·
·
·
Terrance FergusonLAR · TE
1.5
-0
3/10
UNDER−1.5 rec
W0
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
1.5
MGM
1.5
SCORE
1.5
Tyler HigbeeLAR · TE
1.5
-0
8/10
UNDER−1.5 rec
L2
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
1.5
MGM
1.5
SCORE
1.5
Blake CorumLAR · RB
0.5
-0
4/10
UNDER−0.5 rec
W0
book
line
over
under
DK
0.5
FD
0.5
MGM
0.5
Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WR
0.5from 1.5
-0
6/10
UNDER−0.5 rec
L1
book
line
over
under
DK
0.5
FD
0.5
MGM
0.5
alt
hit
DK
FD
CZR
0.5+
6/10
·
·
1.5+
2/10
2.5+
1/10
3.5+
0/10
·
·
Kyle JuszczykSF · FB
1.5
—
4/10
—no number
—
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
FD
1.5
MGM
1.5
Touchdownslinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Touchdowns
Anytime TD283-13
Christian McCaffreySF · RB
59%
61%
7/10
YES+2 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Kyren WilliamsLAR · RB
53%from -135
52%
6/10
—-1 pts vs book
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Puka NacuaLAR · WR
43%from +115
46%
5/10
YES+3 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Davante AdamsLAR · WR
47%from +125
43%
6/10
—-4 pts vs book
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Colby ParkinsonLAR · TE
20%from +400
35%
6/10
YES+15 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Mike EvansSF · WR
31%from +170
34%
4/10
YES+3 pts vs book
W1 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
George KittleSF · TE
24%from +205
33%
5/10
YES+9 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Blake CorumLAR · RB
34%from +135
27%
4/10
—-7 pts vs book
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Deebo SamuelSF · WR
20%from +230
26%
3/10
YES+6 pts vs book
W1 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Tyler HigbeeLAR · TE
15%from +650
21%
3/10
YES+6 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Terrance FergusonLAR · TE
20%from +475
21%
3/10
YES+1 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Jake TongesQSF · TE
11%from +265
19%
5/10
YES+8 pts vs book
VDNP
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Brock PurdySF · QB
17%
17%
2/10
—even with the book
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Konata MumpfieldLAR · WR
6%from +500
14%
1/10
YES+8 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Davis AllenLAR · TE
7%from +700
13%
1/10
YES+6 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Demarcus RobinsonSF · WR
10%from +650
11%
2/10
YES+1 pts vs book
W1 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Xavier SmithLAR · WR
5%from +900
10%
0/10
YES+5 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Ronnie RiversLAR · RB
2%from +6500
9%
0/10
YES+7 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Kyle JuszczykSF · FB
8%from +900
9%
1/10
YES+1 pts vs book
VDNP
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Jordan WhittingtonLAR · WR
9%from +425
9%
0/10
—even with the book
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Luke FarrellSF · TE
6%from +1400
7%
1/10
YES+1 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
CZR
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
4%from +1900
6%
0/10
YES+2 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Jacob CowingSF · WR
3%from +2200
4%
0/10
YES+1 pts vs book
L0 TD
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
CJ DanielsLAR · WR
3%from +1100
no games since 2024—
·
—no number
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
CZR
Jordan WatkinsSF · WR
3%from +2200
—
0/2
—no number
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
CZR
Kaelon BlackSF · RB
8%from +800
—
0/1
—no number
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Max KlareLAR · TE
5%from +1400
no games since 2024—
·
—no number
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
CZR
Tutu AtwellLAR · WR
5%from +1500
—
1/10
—no number
—
book
line
yes
DK
FD
CZR
Kickinglinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Kicking
FG made22-2
Harrison MevisLAR · PK
1.5
53%
4/10
UNDER53% to clear
W0
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
MGM
1.5
Eddy PineiroSF · PK
1.5
48%
6/10
UNDER48% to clear
L2
book
line
over
under
DK
1.5
MGM
1.5
Kick pts2
Harrison MevisLAR · PK
7.5
53%
5/10
UNDER53% to clear
W1
book
line
over
under
DK
7.5
MGM
7.5
Eddy PineiroSF · PK
6.5
51%
6/10
UNDER51% to clear
L9
book
line
over
under
DK
6.5
MGM
6.5
Injury report
4 designations · as of 11:45 AM
SF · 3
De'Zhaun Stribling
WR
DOUBTFUL
Ankle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake Tonges
TE
QUESTIONABLE
Knee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred Collins
DT
OUT
Knee · IR
LAR · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles Garrett
DE
OUT
Knee
Our numbers vs the book
71 legs priced · moneyline 13.3 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#
market
who
ours
book
gap
side
how
1
Anytime TD
Colby Parkinson LAR
35%
20%
14.6
ours
poisson
2
Rush yds 0.5
Matthew Stafford LAR
50%
37%
12.6
ours
normal
3
Anytime TD
George Kittle SF
33%
24%
9.6
ours
poisson
4
Anytime TD
Konata Mumpfield LAR
14%
6%
8.6
ours
poisson
5
Anytime TD
Jake Tonges SF
19%
11%
7.7
ours
poisson
6
Anytime TD
Blake Corum LAR
27%
34%
7.4
book
poisson
7
Anytime TD
Ronnie Rivers LAR
9%
2%
6.7
ours
poisson
8
Anytime TD
Davis Allen LAR
13%
7%
6.0
ours
poisson
9
Anytime TD
Tyler Higbee LAR
21%
15%
6.0
ours
poisson
10
Carries 12.5
Kyren Williams LAR
50%
55%
5.3
book
normal
Rushing yards · the one market where our number moves a price
player
ours
line
gap
our P(over)
book
Brock Purdy SF
13.3
19.5
-6.2
50.0%
48.7%
Kyren Williams LAR
61.5
56.5
+5.0
51.2%
48.9%
Matthew Stafford LAR
4.0
0.5
+3.5
50.0%
37.4%
Blake Corum LAR
39.3
42.5
-3.2
49.2%
50.0%
Christian McCaffrey SF
56.4
59.5
-3.1
49.3%
50.4%
Where the book says our projection is stale · the site shows the book's number on these
player
market
ours
line
gap
slot
Brock Purdy SF
Pass yds
240.2
236.5
+3.7
QB
Matthew Stafford LAR
Pass TD
1.8
1.5
+0.3
QB
Brock Purdy SF
Pass TD
1.6
1.5
+0.1
QB
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. 11 lines have no number from us: Deebo Samuel (this market is not projected for him), Kaelon Black (no history of his own), Puka Nacua (this market is not projected for him), Brock Purdy (this market is not projected for him), Kyle Juszczyk (this market is not projected for him), Kyle Juszczyk (this market is not projected for him), …. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LARPass pro vs rushLAR offense · SF defenseLINE +31LAR 1.1 #1SF#32 0.9
LARPass attackLAR offense · SF defenseOFF +23LAR +0.23 #2SF#25 +0.11
LARPass yardsLAR offense · SF defenseOFF +21LAR 277 #2SF#23 242
SFPass pro vs rushSF offense · LAR defenseLINE +16SF 1.3 #2LAR#18 2.2Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LARRun gameLAR offense · SF defenseOFF +15LAR +0.03 #7SF#22 +0.01
SFPass yardsSF offense · LAR defenseOFF +14SF 254 #6LAR#20 235
LARRed zoneLAR offense · SF defenseOFF +8LAR 68% #6SF#14 62%
LARRun gameSF offense · LAR defenseDEF +6SF -0.00 #18LAR#12 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SF3rd downSF offense · LAR defenseOFF +5SF 51% #1LAR#6 36%
LAR3rd downLAR offense · SF defenseOFF +4LAR 40% #16SF#20 41%
SFPass attackSF offense · LAR defenseOFF +3SF +0.16 #7LAR#10 -0.07
LARRun block vs frontLAR offense · SF defenseLINE +2LAR 126 #8SF#10 110
LARRed zoneSF offense · LAR defenseDEF +0SF 68% #8LAR#8 56%
LARRun block vs frontSF offense · LAR defenseFRONT +0SF 114 #20LAR#20 120
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men · 2025 numbers · built 7:40 PM Sep 13
Description, not a prediction. Measured 2026-09-10 against the closing line (nfl-ml/reports/MATCHUP_FEATURE_TEST_2026-09-10.md): none of this changes a projection or a price. how this works
The call is what each unit chose last season, standardised against that season's league: run rate, pass rate over expected, pace, personnel, motion, play-action; blitz rate, rushers sent, box count, coverage. Measured over 2016-2025, almost every one of these belongs to the coordinator, not the team — so when a caller has changed, the traits that leave with him are shown struck out rather than deleted. Only 4th-down aggression and plays per game are the organisation's. The four battles grade each unit in the thing it is trying to do — run blocking vs the front (yards before contact, stuff rate, power success), the ball-carrier in space, pass protection vs the pass rush (pressure, sack and hit rates), the passing game vs coverage (EPA, success rate, CPOE) — in standard deviations within the season; an edge under 0.4σ is called even. The men are conventional pairings: nobody outside the buildings knows the real assignments. Pass-rush pressure rates and receiver separation repeat well year to year (r 0.57, 0.51); a corner's yards-per-target does not (r 0.20) and should be read loosely. Exposure is how much of last season's snaps behind these grades belongs to men who left or are out — the honest limit of a grade built on last year's roster. None of this is a prediction: on 2026-09-10 these battles were added to the projection models and walked forward against the closing line in every skill market, and changed nothing. They describe the game; the numbers above come from the props models.
The call what SF's offense and LAR's defense chose in 2025
SF offense: Klay KubiakLAR defense: Chris Shula
SF offense · what they call
run rate43.1%average
standard-down run rate47.5%average
pass rate over expected-1.1average
seconds per play31.7saverage
plays per game62.65above
4th-and-short go rate65.2%above
shotgun54.7%below
no-huddle3.0%average
11 personnel42.1%below
heavy personnel57.9%far above
play-action13.5%average
screens3.7%below
RPO0.7%far below
motion at snap70.6%far above
LAR defense · what they call
man coverage26.1%average
blitz rate21.0%below
pass rushers sent4.19below
defenders in box6.18average
nickel or lighter71.4%average
dime25.9%far above
The four battles each unit's grade in the thing it is trying to do · σ within 2025 · positive is good for the unit graded
+0.04σrun blocking vs run frontSF +0.85σ-0.81σ
-1.06σball-carrier in space vs pursuitLAR +1.83σ+0.76σ
+0.96σpass protection vs pass rusheven+0.58σ
+1.35σpassing game vs coverageSF +1.18σ+0.17σ
SF offenseLAR defense
The men conventional pairings · 2025 rates on the current roster
SF receivers
player
snaps
tgt
share
sep
yac+
Deebo Samuel Sr. 2025 w/ WAS
713
99
25.4%
3.45
+0.30
Ricky Pearsall
480
53
18.0%
2.28
-0.61
Christian Kirk 2025 w/ HOU
433
52
14.6%
2.69
-0.13
Demarcus Robinson
420
35
7.6%
2.02
+2.34
LAR corners
player
snaps
tgt
cmp%
y/tgt
rtg
Jaylen Watson 2025 w/ KC
867
47
62%
7.4
79
Emmanuel Forbes
814
76
57%
8.2
85
Trent McDuffie 2025 w/ KC
688
44
61%
6.2
82
Quentin Lake
634
47
62%
7.5
85
SF offensive line snaps are the only free individual measure a lineman has
player
pos
snaps
share
g
Dominick Puni
G
1120
100%
17
Colton McKivitz
T
1117
99%
17
Trent Williams
T
997
92%
16
Jake Brendel
C
950
94%
15
Connor Colby
G
452
51%
13
LAR pass rush per 100 dropbacks he was on the field for
player
pos
pass snaps
prs
prs/100
sk/100
Myles GarrettOUT
OLB
474
53
11.2
4.9
Byron Young
OLB
504
40
7.9
2.4
Kobie Turner
DE
448
21
4.7
1.6
Braden Fiske
DE
342
18
5.3
0.9
Nate Landman
LB
573
11
1.9
0.4
Poona Ford
NT
268
10
3.7
0.7
The call what LAR's offense and SF's defense chose in 2025
LAR offense: Nate ScheelhaaseNEW OC · was Mike LaFleurSF defense: Raheem MorrisNEW DC · was Robert Saleh
LAR offense · what they call
run rate37.0%far below
standard-down run rate40.3%far below
pass rate over expected+4.8far above
seconds per play30.6saverage
plays per game62.12average
4th-and-short go rate64.3%above
shotgun42.9%far below
no-huddle7.4%average
11 personnel63.6%average
heavy personnel36.3%average
play-action21.5%far above
screens4.8%average
RPO0.4%far below
motion at snap65.4%above
SF defense · what they call
man coverage25.5%below
blitz rate22.7%below
pass rushers sent4.27average
defenders in box6.04far below
nickel or lighter79.8%above
dime1.1%below
The four battles each unit's grade in the thing it is trying to do · σ within 2025 · positive is good for the unit graded
+0.32σrun blocking vs run fronteven-0.02σ
+0.50σball-carrier in space vs pursuiteven+0.33σ
+1.27σpass protection vs pass rushLAR +3.55σ-2.28σ
+1.15σpassing game vs coverageLAR +1.91σ-0.76σ
LAR offenseSF defense
The men conventional pairings · 2025 rates on the current roster
LAR receivers
player
snaps
tgt
share
sep
yac+
Puka Nacua
727
166
30.1%
2.77
+1.44
Davante Adams
635
114
25.1%
2.11
-0.69
Jordan Whittington
443
25
5.1%
—
—
Konata Mumpfield
375
23
6.2%
1.55
+0.35
SF corners
player
snaps
tgt
cmp%
y/tgt
rtg
Deommodore Lenoir
1066
63
62%
5.7
76
Jack Jones 2025 w/ MIA
907
58
67%
8.4
95
Renardo Green
816
69
55%
6.5
80
Upton Stout
593
68
71%
7.8
89
LAR offensive line snaps are the only free individual measure a lineman has
player
pos
snaps
share
g
Coleman Shelton
C
1120
99%
17
Alaric Jackson
T
1051
98%
16
Kevin Dotson
G
886
91%
15
Steve Avila
G
836
83%
15
Warren McClendon Jr.
T
667
58%
17
SF pass rush per 100 dropbacks he was on the field for
player
pos
pass snaps
prs
prs/100
sk/100
Osa Odighizuwa
DT
398
30
7.5
0.9
Sam Okuayinonu
DE
334
10
3.0
0.9
Keion White
DE
217
9
4.1
0.7
Alfred CollinsOUT
DT
280
6
2.1
0.4
Upton Stout
CB
399
5
1.3
0.3
Mykel Williams
DE
231
4
1.7
0.4
SF: 22.1% of 2025 offensive snaps belong to men who won't play (21.9% left, 0.2% out) · defense 43.7%LAR: 4.7% of 2025 offensive snaps belong to men who won't play (4.7% left, 0.0% out) · defense 20.7%
