Washington Commanders
@
Philadelphia Eagles
DIV
BOOK PHI 66%
MODEL PHI 67%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 16:25
· Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 3 – 8 PHI
PHI -4.5
Vegas line (context)
47.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
WAS OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
PHI OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
WAS OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +13
#5 -0.12
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +18
#6 204
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +18
#22 124
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
38% #22
3rd down
even
#22 42%
70% #4
Red zone
even
#10 59%
PHI OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +17
#30 +0.20
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +14
#28 +0.07
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#28 257
117 #18
Rush yards
OFF +12
#30 142
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
38% #21
3rd down
even
#23 42%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +26
#28 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 2.5
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #5 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #16 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #5 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #5 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #5 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #5 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #30 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #28 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #30 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #30 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #30 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #30 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.