Miami Dolphins
@
Las Vegas Raiders
BOOK LV 64%
MODEL LV 49%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 16:25
· Allegiant Stadium (dome)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 2 – 1 LV
LV -3.5
Vegas line (context)
40.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIA OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
LV OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIA OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +12
#13 214
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#17 117
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
35% #26
3rd down
even
#30 47%
64% #14
Red zone
even
#11 59%
LV OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
even
#26 +0.13
-0.26 #32
Run game
even
#27 +0.04
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +8
#18 231
77 #32
Rush yards
even
#26 132
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +16
#16 2.3
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +11
#18 41%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +8
#19 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 2.3
LV PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #23 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #14 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #23 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #23 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #23 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #23 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #26 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #27 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #26 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #26 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #26 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #26 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.