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The record 2d8360089afad6dba9ba3eb1b469-dirty5daa5582b7621f10246167cab172

MarketW–LHit rate One-line rule, same claimsPushPending
Winner (straight up) 1–1 50.0% 50.0% always back the market favorite 0 15
Spread 0–2 0.0% 100.0% always take the underdog 0 15
Total 0–2 0.0% 0.0% always take the over 0 46

Hit rate counts decided claims only — wins and losses. A push is not a win and a game not yet played is not a loss, so neither can flatter the number. There is no return figure on this page: the spread model’s edge is not statistically credible, and printing a profit beside that would contradict it.

Player props

Our side on every priced prop: over or under where our number sits against the line, and on anytime TD a yes only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Each side locks at its last showing before kickoff, at the best price we held on that side, and is graded once from the box score. This is a lean, not an edge: the prop model has not beaten the closing line in testing, and these rows are how it is actually doing, in public.

MarketW–LHit rateBreak-even at the prices taken One-line rule, same claimsPushVoidPending
Passing 7–9 43.8% 53.2% 68.8% always take the under 0 0 0
Rushing 4–10 28.6% 51.1% 42.9% always take the under 0 0 0
Receiving 26–24 52.0% 51.9% 62.0% always take the under 0 4 0
Touchdowns 3–22 12.0% 15.1% — yes-only: the bar is break-even 0 4 0
All props 40–65 38.1% 43.3% 60.0% always take the under 0 8 0

Break-even is the hit rate the posted prices on our side required, averaged over the claims actually decided. It is the bar a side has to clear, not a return. A long-shot yes at +1000 needs about one hit in eleven, which is why the touchdown row's bar sits far below the others. Void means the player did not play, and it counts nowhere. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing, and is not counted here.

Does a bigger gap hit more often?

The game page ranks props by how far our number sits from the line, in the market's normal miss (how far the closing line missed in 2025). If that ranking means anything, the bottom row should beat the top one. Anytime TD has no miss ruler and sits out.

GapW–LHit rateBreak-even at the prices takenVoid
under a fifth of a normal miss 9–12 42.9% 52.5% 1
a fifth to two fifths 9–10 47.4% 51.7% 0
two fifths or more 19–21 47.5% 52.0% 3

113 of 113 prop sides were reconstructed after kickoff. The register started on 10 September, after the first two games had kicked off. Their sides were rebuilt from the last projections and prices stored before kickoff, and only where both provably predate it. They are kept, counted, and marked here and on their game pages.

WkGameFinalProps W–LHit rate Break-evenVoidPending
1 NE @ SEA reconstructed 10–13 19–28 40.4% 44.4% 4 0 every side →
1 SF @ LAR reconstructed 27–7 21–37 36.2% 42.3% 4 0 every side →

What is wrong with these claims

80 of 189 claims carry a recorded defect. They are kept exactly as written and disclosed here, never repaired — the ledger is write-once, and a record that quietly drops its own bad rows is worth less than no record at all. Ruling of 21 August 2026.

DefectClaimsWhat it means
Neutral-site home-field 2 The recorder applied home-field to a game played at a neutral site.
Totals biased low 15 The recorder left home-field out of the total; the projection is low by about a point.
Totals biased high 32 Made before the first 2026 game, when the preseason league scoring level counted home field once too often; the projection is high by about two points.
Recorded by the affected version 31 Written by the model version that carried the defects, but this row was not individually identified as wrong. Disclosed rather than assumed clean.

Every claim, as it was written

The receipts. Each row is what was said before kickoff, at the line and price on the board at the time. Nothing here is a betting recommendation.

WkGameMarketOur side Line or priceProjectionResult
1 ARI @ LAC rb_rush_yds 00-0037157 — 16.05 pending
1 ARI @ LAC rb_rush_yds 00-0039391 — 52.98 pending
1 ARI @ LAC rb_rush_yds 00-0040666 — 36.37 pending
1 ARI @ LAC rb_rush_yds 00-0038454 — 21.39 pending
1 ARI @ LAC rb_rush_yds 00-0037263 — 25.16 pending
1 ARI @ LAC spread LAC 10.5 4.91 pending disclosed
1 ARI @ LAC total the game 46.5 44.61 pending defect
1 ARI @ LAC winner LAC -575ML 4.91 · 64.6% pending disclosed
1 ATL @ PIT rb_rush_yds 00-0036139 — 38.91 pending
1 ATL @ PIT rb_rush_yds 00-0038542 — 86.40 pending
1 ATL @ PIT rb_rush_yds 00-0037228 — 56.22 pending
1 ATL @ PIT rb_rush_yds 00-0037746 — 18.57 pending
1 ATL @ PIT spread PIT 3.0 3.25 pending disclosed
1 ATL @ PIT total the game 42.5 44.46 pending defect
1 ATL @ PIT winner PIT -180ML 3.25 · 59.8% pending disclosed
1 BAL @ IND rb_rush_yds 00-0040179 — 19.00 pending
1 BAL @ IND rb_rush_yds 00-0039796 — 9.58 pending
1 BAL @ IND rb_rush_yds 00-0032764 — 101.01 pending
1 BAL @ IND rb_rush_yds 00-0034975 — 12.89 pending
1 BAL @ IND rb_rush_yds 00-0036223 — 63.62 pending
1 BAL @ IND spread IND -3.5 1.19 pending disclosed
1 BAL @ IND total the game 48.5 50.14 pending defect
1 BAL @ IND winner IND +150ML 1.19 · 53.6% pending disclosed
1 BUF @ HOU rb_rush_yds 00-0037248 — 83.35 pending
1 BUF @ HOU rb_rush_yds 00-0040583 — 57.42 pending
1 BUF @ HOU rb_rush_yds 00-0035685 — 38.91 pending
1 BUF @ HOU rb_rush_yds 00-0039603 — 10.89 pending
1 BUF @ HOU rb_rush_yds 00-0039875 — 12.17 pending
1 BUF @ HOU rb_rush_yds 00-0035537 — 17.92 pending
1 BUF @ HOU spread HOU -1.5 2.15 pending disclosed
1 BUF @ HOU total the game 44.5 46.14 pending defect
1 BUF @ HOU winner HOU +100ML 2.15 · 56.5% pending disclosed
1 CHI @ CAR rb_rush_yds 00-0036555 — 42.00 pending
1 CHI @ CAR rb_rush_yds 00-0040236 — 36.74 pending
1 CHI @ CAR rb_rush_yds 00-0039344 — 9.86 pending
1 CHI @ CAR rb_rush_yds 00-0036275 — 65.95 pending
1 CHI @ CAR rb_rush_yds 00-0036265 — 17.16 pending
1 CHI @ CAR rb_rush_yds 00-0039021 — 8.67 pending
1 CHI @ CAR rb_rush_yds 00-0037329 — 12.10 pending
1 CHI @ CAR spread CAR -2.5 -0.59 pending disclosed
1 CHI @ CAR total the game 46.5 45.12 pending defect
1 CHI @ CAR winner CHI -148ML -0.59 · 51.8% pending disclosed
1 CLE @ JAX rb_rush_yds 00-0038611 — 49.45 pending
1 CLE @ JAX rb_rush_yds 00-0040466 — 22.88 pending
1 CLE @ JAX rb_rush_yds 00-0040719 — 27.75 pending
1 CLE @ JAX rb_rush_yds 00-0040162 — 24.26 pending
1 CLE @ JAX rb_rush_yds 00-0040238 — 22.72 pending
1 CLE @ JAX rb_rush_yds 00-0032104 — 15.89 pending
1 CLE @ JAX rb_rush_yds 00-0040784 — 36.10 pending
1 CLE @ JAX rb_rush_yds 00-0031595 — 18.61 pending
1 CLE @ JAX spread JAX 7.5 7.58 pending disclosed
1 CLE @ JAX total the game 40.5 42.67 pending defect
1 CLE @ JAX winner JAX -395ML 7.58 · 71.8% pending disclosed
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0035250 — 28.78 pending
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0038705 — 27.22 pending
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0040715 — 41.43 pending
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0037563 — 43.04 pending
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0039384 — 62.27 pending
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0038738 — 18.32 pending
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0036893 — 27.12 pending
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0036997 — 53.15 pending
1 DAL @ NYG rb_rush_yds 00-0038389 — 15.45 pending
1 DAL @ NYG spread NYG -2.5 1.59 pending disclosed
1 DAL @ NYG total the game 48.5 51.36 pending defect
1 DAL @ NYG winner NYG +124ML 1.59 · 54.8% pending disclosed
1 DEN @ KC rb_rush_yds 00-0037085 — 19.85 pending
1 DEN @ KC rb_rush_yds 00-0040730 — 36.93 pending
1 DEN @ KC rb_rush_yds 00-0038134 — 76.13 pending
1 DEN @ KC rb_rush_yds 00-0036158 — 64.28 pending
1 DEN @ KC rb_rush_yds 00-0040078 — 31.51 pending
1 DEN @ KC spread KC 3.0 1.24 pending disclosed
1 DEN @ KC total the game 42.5 41.29 pending defect
1 DEN @ KC winner KC -155ML 1.24 · 53.8% pending disclosed
1 GB @ MIN rb_rush_yds 00-0033293 — 56.15 pending
1 GB @ MIN rb_rush_yds 00-0037525 — 40.05 pending
1 GB @ MIN rb_rush_yds 00-0040142 — 10.99 pending
1 GB @ MIN rb_rush_yds 00-0038685 — 12.53 pending
1 GB @ MIN rb_rush_yds 00-0036425 — 9.18 pending
1 GB @ MIN spread MIN 1.5 1.26 pending disclosed
1 GB @ MIN total the game 45.5 42.00 pending defect
1 GB @ MIN winner MIN -118ML 1.26 · 53.8% pending disclosed
1 MIA @ LV rb_rush_yds 00-0039407 — 10.60 pending
1 MIA @ LV rb_rush_yds 00-0039874 — 30.50 pending
1 MIA @ LV rb_rush_yds 00-0039040 — 80.01 pending
1 MIA @ LV rb_rush_yds 00-0040122 — 67.85 pending
1 MIA @ LV rb_rush_yds 00-0040198 — 13.88 pending
1 MIA @ LV spread LV 3.5 -0.25 pending disclosed
1 MIA @ LV total the game 40.5 42.76 pending defect
1 MIA @ LV winner MIA +164ML -0.25 · 50.7% pending disclosed
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0040649 — 12.41 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0039299 — 7.47 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0039165 — 32.06 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0038797 — 22.38 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0041323 — 34.64 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0036187 — -1.22 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0038488 — -0.88 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0040556 — 22.19 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0036875 — 48.99 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0041512 — 33.89 pending
1 NE @ SEA rb_rush_yds 00-0040734 — 42.37 pending
1 NE @ SEA spread SEA 3.5 4.92 loss disclosed
1 NE @ SEA total the game 44.5 44.62 loss defect
1 NE @ SEA winner SEA -192ML 4.92 · 64.6% win disclosed
1 NO @ DET rb_rush_yds 00-0036973 — 50.32 pending
1 NO @ DET rb_rush_yds 00-0039139 — 65.88 pending
1 NO @ DET rb_rush_yds 00-0033906 — 26.86 pending
1 NO @ DET rb_rush_yds 00-0039373 — 51.00 pending
1 NO @ DET rb_rush_yds 00-0038551 — 16.97 pending
1 NO @ DET rb_rush_yds 00-0037276 — 30.43 pending
1 NO @ DET spread DET 7.0 6.63 pending disclosed
1 NO @ DET total the game 48.5 46.49 pending defect
1 NO @ DET winner DET -310ML 6.63 · 69.3% pending disclosed
1 NYJ @ TEN rb_rush_yds 00-0038120 — 57.01 pending
1 NYJ @ TEN rb_rush_yds 00-0035261 — 70.96 pending
1 NYJ @ TEN rb_rush_yds 00-0037594 — 9.55 pending
1 NYJ @ TEN rb_rush_yds 00-0039794 — 14.90 pending
1 NYJ @ TEN rb_rush_yds 00-0039032 — 29.48 pending
1 NYJ @ TEN rb_rush_yds 00-0034959 — 19.14 pending
1 NYJ @ TEN rb_rush_yds 00-0036842 — 14.57 pending
1 NYJ @ TEN rb_rush_yds 00-0039798 — 13.43 pending
1 NYJ @ TEN spread TEN 3.0 2.50 pending disclosed
1 NYJ @ TEN total the game 38.5 45.49 pending defect
1 NYJ @ TEN winner TEN -148ML 2.50 · 57.5% pending disclosed
1 SF vs LAR neutral site rb_rush_yds 00-0039363 — 16.71 pending
1 SF vs LAR neutral site rb_rush_yds 00-0037557 — 9.60 pending
1 SF vs LAR neutral site rb_rush_yds 00-0039738 — 26.97 pending
1 SF vs LAR neutral site rb_rush_yds 00-0040177 — 32.42 pending
1 SF vs LAR neutral site rb_rush_yds 00-0041052 — 34.59 pending
1 SF vs LAR neutral site rb_rush_yds 00-0037840 — 67.95 pending
1 SF vs LAR neutral site rb_rush_yds 00-0029892 — -0.95 pending
1 SF vs LAR neutral site rb_rush_yds 00-0033280 — 65.38 pending
1 SF vs LAR neutral site spread LAR 3.5 4.58 loss defect
1 SF vs LAR neutral site total the game 48.5 48.54 loss disclosed
1 SF vs LAR neutral site winner LAR -198ML 4.58 · 63.6% loss defect
1 TB @ CIN rb_rush_yds 00-0033526 — 29.58 pending
1 TB @ CIN rb_rush_yds 00-0040208 — 6.91 pending
1 TB @ CIN rb_rush_yds 00-0038597 — 60.01 pending
1 TB @ CIN rb_rush_yds 00-0038951 — 16.91 pending
1 TB @ CIN rb_rush_yds 00-0039361 — 62.66 pending
1 TB @ CIN rb_rush_yds 00-0036919 — 33.42 pending
1 TB @ CIN spread CIN 3.5 0.72 pending disclosed
1 TB @ CIN total the game 51.5 50.16 pending defect
1 TB @ CIN winner CIN -205ML 0.72 · 52.2% pending disclosed
1 WAS @ PHI rb_rush_yds 00-0037256 — 23.37 pending
1 WAS @ PHI rb_rush_yds 00-0040242 — 37.73 pending
1 WAS @ PHI rb_rush_yds 00-0034844 — 86.56 pending
1 WAS @ PHI rb_rush_yds 00-0039746 — 7.14 pending
1 WAS @ PHI rb_rush_yds 00-0038555 — 24.64 pending
1 WAS @ PHI spread PHI 4.5 5.65 pending disclosed
1 WAS @ PHI total the game 47.5 44.80 pending defect
1 WAS @ PHI winner PHI -218ML 5.65 · 66.7% pending disclosed
2 CAR @ ATL total the game 43.5 45.52 · 48.9% pending defect
2 CIN @ HOU total the game 46.5 48.93 · 48.6% pending defect
2 CLE @ TB total the game 42.5 44.68 · 48.8% pending defect
2 DET @ BUF rb_rush_yds 00-0037248 — 83.19 pending
2 DET @ BUF rb_rush_yds 00-0039139 — 63.47 pending
2 DET @ BUF rb_rush_yds 00-0039875 — 12.01 pending
2 DET @ BUF rb_rush_yds 00-0035537 — 17.76 pending
2 DET @ BUF spread BUF 3.0 2.28 · 48.4% pending
2 DET @ BUF total the game 52.5 54.10 · 49.1% pending defect
2 DET @ BUF winner BUF -162ML 2.28 · 56.9% pending
2 GB @ NYJ total the game 42.5 47.07 · 47.4% pending defect
2 IND @ KC total the game 47.5 48.24 · 49.6% pending defect
2 JAX @ DEN total the game 43.5 46.48 · 48.3% pending defect
2 LV @ LAC total the game 42.5 43.19 · 49.6% pending defect
2 MIA @ SF total the game 46.5 47.96 · 49.2% pending defect
2 MIN @ CHI total the game 45.5 45.80 · 49.8% pending defect
2 NO @ BAL total the game 46.5 46.46 · 50.0% pending defect
2 NYG @ LAR total the game 48.5 50.06 · 49.1% pending defect
2 PHI @ TEN total the game 42.5 45.15 · 48.5% pending defect
2 PIT @ NE total the game 43.5 46.12 · 48.5% pending defect
2 SEA @ ARI total the game 44.5 48.49 · 47.8% pending defect
2 WAS @ DAL total the game 51.5 54.41 · 48.4% pending defect
3 ARI @ SF total the game 46.5 49.50 · 48.3% pending defect
3 ATL @ GB total the game 46.5 46.47 · 50.0% pending defect
3 BAL vs DAL neutral site total the game 51.5 52.44 · 49.5% pending defect
3 CAR @ CLE total the game 39.5 42.30 · 48.4% pending defect
3 CIN @ PIT total the game 46.5 50.73 · 47.6% pending defect
3 HOU @ IND total the game 45.5 48.22 · 48.5% pending defect
3 KC @ MIA total the game 44.5 44.67 · 49.9% pending defect
3 LAR @ DEN total the game 45.5 47.83 · 48.7% pending defect
3 LAC @ BUF total the game 48.5 48.56 · 50.0% pending defect
3 LV @ NO total the game 42.5 42.64 · 49.9% pending defect
3 MIN @ TB total the game 44.5 45.42 · 49.5% pending defect
3 NE @ JAX total the game 45.5 47.53 · 48.9% pending defect
3 NYJ @ DET total the game 45.5 51.22 · 46.8% pending defect
3 PHI @ CHI total the game 46.5 46.53 · 50.0% pending defect
3 SEA @ WAS total the game 46.5 48.85 · 48.7% pending defect
3 TEN @ NYG total the game 44.5 47.73 · 48.2% pending defect