New Orleans Saints
@
Detroit Lions
BOOK DET 73%
MODEL DET 69%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00
· Ford Field (dome)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 0 – 1 DET
DET -7.0
Vegas line (context)
49.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NO OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
DET OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NO OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
DEF +13
#14 -0.01
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +13
#18 -0.01
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +11
#21 237
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +14
#14 115
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#5 2.8
40% #19
3rd down
DEF +10
#9 37%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +9
#23 68%
DET OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +8
#12 -0.05
-0.04 #24
Run game
DEF +22
#2 -0.07
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#5 196
120 #14
Rush yards
even
#19 121
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
39% #20
3rd down
DEF +15
#5 36%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +10
#15 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NO PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.6
DET PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #14 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #18 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #14 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #14 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #14 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #14 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #12 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #2 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #12 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #12 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #12 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #12 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.