Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Cincinnati Bengals
BOOK CIN 63%
MODEL CIN 52%
Week 1 · 2026-09-13 · 13:00
· Paycor Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 0 – 1 CIN
CIN -3.5
Vegas line (context)
52.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TB OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
CIN OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TB OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
+0.01 #12
Run game
OFF +17
#29 +0.09
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#25 246
115 #21
Rush yards
OFF +11
#32 147
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
42% #13
3rd down
OFF +14
#27 44%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#26 69%
CIN OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#3 -0.07
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +20
#27 255
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +24
#5 99
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +8
#13 40%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +31
#32 74%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TB PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 2.2
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #28 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #29 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #28 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #28 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #28 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #28 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #20 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #3 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #20 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #20 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #20 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #20 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.