no sides on this game yet · the record
SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 39%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 26 – ARI 22 · SF -3.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
ARI +8.5
ARI +3.6
4/10
—at the line
| book | ARI | SF |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
44.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
SF · 3
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
ARI · 8
| James Conner | RB | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Tip Reiman | TE | OUT | Ankle |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Garrett Williams | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Kaleb Proctor | DT | OUT | Knee - Meniscus · IR |
| Zachary Carter | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Isaiah Adams | G | OUT | Knee |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | OUT | Ribs |
| Kitan Crawford | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF
3rd downSF offense · ARI defense
SF 51% #1
ARI #29 45%
SF
Pass attackSF offense · ARI defense
SF +0.16 #7
ARI #27 +0.15
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · ARI defense
SF 1.3 #2
ARI #21 2.0
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · ARI defense
SF 254 #6
ARI #24 243
ARI
Pass yardsARI offense · SF defense
ARI 256 #5
SF #23 242
SF
Run block vs frontARI offense · SF defense
ARI 96 #28
SF #10 110
SF
Red zoneSF offense · ARI defense
SF 68% #8
ARI #21 67%
SF
Red zoneARI offense · SF defense
ARI 56% #26
SF #14 62%
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
ARI
3rd downARI offense · SF defense
ARI 42% #12
SF #20 41%
ARI
Pass attackARI offense · SF defense
ARI +0.00 #17
SF #25 +0.11
ARI
Pass pro vs rushARI offense · SF defense
ARI 3.1 #26
SF #32 0.9
SF
Run gameARI offense · SF defense
ARI -0.06 #28
SF #22 +0.01
SF
Run gameSF offense · ARI defense
SF -0.00 #18
ARI #21 +0.01
SF
Run block vs frontSF offense · ARI defense
SF 114 #20
ARI #21 120
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ARI DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +20
#27 +0.15
-0.00 #18
Run game
even
#21 +0.01
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +18
#24 243
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#25 127
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +23
#29 1.8
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +28
#29 45%
68% #8
Red zone
OFF +13
#21 67%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
line +19
ARIpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sk#229
Baron Browning LB
2.0 sk#227
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
SFrun block
even
ARIrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Josh Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT
4.0 tfl#274
Walter Nolen III RDT
5.0 tfl#194
Dante Stills RDE
2.0 tfl#427
Jack Gibbens WLB
8.0 tfl#68
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ARI offense against what it runs into
ARI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
ARI offence: Drew Petzing called these → Nathaniel Hackett calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
OFF +8
#25 +0.11
-0.06 #28
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +18
#23 242
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +20
#11 108
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#32 1.2
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +8
#20 41%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +12
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ARIpass pro
even
SFpass rush
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#114
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#160
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#264
3.1 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
ARIrun block
front +18
SFrun D
LTParis Johnson Jr.96%
LGIsaac Seumalo92% PIT
CHjalte Froholdt99%
RGJon Gaines II33%
RTElijah Wilkinson100% ATL
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#380
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#138
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#211
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#391
96 #28rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110