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San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals ★ DIV · NFC WEST ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · State Farm Stadium · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 6 – 4 ARI
no sides on this game yet · the record
SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q    ARI James Conner RB out · Tip Reiman TE out
ARI win probability
ours 39% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 26 – ARI 22 · SF -3.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cardinalsspread · margin, last 10
ARI +8.5
ARI +3.6
4/10
at the line
bookARISF
DK
Cardinalstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
SF · 3
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR
ARI · 8
James ConnerRBOUTFoot · IR
Tip ReimanTEOUTAnkle
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Garrett WilliamsCBOUTAchilles
Kaleb ProctorDTOUTKnee - Meniscus · IR
Zachary CarterDTOUTKnee · IR
Isaiah AdamsGOUTKnee
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOUTRibs
Kitan CrawfordSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF 3rd downSF offense · ARI defense OFF +28 SF 51% #1 ARI #29 45%
SF Pass attackSF offense · ARI defense OFF +20 SF +0.16 #7 ARI #27 +0.15
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · ARI defense LINE +19 SF 1.3 #2 ARI #21 2.0 Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk #9
SF Pass yardsSF offense · ARI defense OFF +18 SF 254 #6 ARI #24 243
ARI Pass yardsARI offense · SF defense OFF +18 ARI 256 #5 SF #23 242
SF Run block vs frontARI offense · SF defense FRONT +18 ARI 96 #28 SF #10 110
SF Red zoneSF offense · ARI defense OFF +13 SF 68% #8 ARI #21 67%
SF Red zoneARI offense · SF defense DEF +12 ARI 56% #26 SF #14 62%
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
ARI 3rd downARI offense · SF defense OFF +8 ARI 42% #12 SF #20 41%
ARI Pass attackARI offense · SF defense OFF +8 ARI +0.00 #17 SF #25 +0.11
ARI Pass pro vs rushARI offense · SF defense LINE +6 ARI 3.1 #26 SF #32 0.9
SF Run gameARI offense · SF defense DEF +6 ARI -0.06 #28 SF #22 +0.01
SF Run gameSF offense · ARI defense OFF +3 SF -0.00 #18 ARI #21 +0.01
SF Run block vs frontSF offense · ARI defense LINE +1 SF 114 #20 ARI #21 120

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

ARI DEFENSE SF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SF offense against what it runs into

SF OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ARI DEFENSE
+0.16 #7 Pass attack OFF +20 #27 +0.15
-0.00 #18 Run game even #21 +0.01
254 #6 Pass yards OFF +18 #24 243
107 #24 Rush yards even #25 127
1.6 #6 Pass pro vs rush OFF +23 #29 1.8
51% #1 3rd down OFF +28 #29 45%
68% #8 Red zone OFF +13 #21 67%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SFpass pro line +19 ARIpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Josh Sweat LB 12.0 sk#9
Roy Lopez DT 2.0 sk#229
Baron Browning LB 2.0 sk#227
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.0
SFrun block even ARIrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Josh Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#16
Roy Lopez LDT 4.0 tfl#274
Walter Nolen III RDT 5.0 tfl#194
Dante Stills RDE 2.0 tfl#427
Jack Gibbens WLB 8.0 tfl#68
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 120