no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Jalen Milroe QB out · Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock LAR Davis Allen TE q
LAR win probability
ours 57%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 22 – LAR 24 · LAR -2.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAR -3
LAR −2.5
5/10
—at the line
| book | LAR | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
44.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 8:00 PM
SEA · 7
| Jalen Milroe | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Hip |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mike Morris | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Beau Stephens | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
LAR · 2
| Davis Allen | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Head |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
3rd downLAR offense · SEA defense
LAR 40% #16
SEA #1 33%
LAR
Run gameSEA offense · LAR defense
SEA -0.05 #26
LAR #12 -0.04
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · LAR defense
SEA 1.7 #6
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #10
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · LAR defense
SEA 239 #9
LAR #20 235
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · SEA defense
LAR 277 #2
SEA #12 213
LAR
Red zoneSEA offense · LAR defense
SEA 62% #18
LAR #8 56%
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · SEA defense
LAR +0.23 #2
SEA #8 -0.10
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · SEA defense
LAR 1.1 #1
SEA #7 2.8
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SEA
Run block vs frontSEA offense · LAR defense
SEA 120 #12
LAR #18 120
SEA
Run gameLAR offense · SEA defense
LAR +0.03 #7
SEA #1 -0.15
LAR
3rd downSEA offense · LAR defense
SEA 43% #10
LAR #6 36%
SEA
Run block vs frontLAR offense · SEA defense
LAR 126 #7
SEA #4 94
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · LAR defense
SEA +0.11 #8
LAR #10 -0.07
SEA
Red zoneLAR offense · SEA defense
LAR 68% #6
SEA #4 54%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +14
#12 -0.04
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +11
#20 235
123 #11
Rush yards
even
#12 111
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
43% #10
3rd down
even
#6 36%
62% #18
Red zone
DEF +10
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +12
LARpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#10
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#40
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
SEArun block
even
LARrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#65
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#214
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#21
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#85
120 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.03 #7
Run game
even
#1 -0.15
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +10
#12 213
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#3 92
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
40% #16
3rd down
DEF +15
#1 33%
68% #6
Red zone
even
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
even
SEApass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#36
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#53
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#7 2.8
LARrun block
even
SEArun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#64
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#96
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#322
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#49
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94