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Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Reliant Stadium · astroturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 3 – 7 HOU
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out
HOU win probability
ours 80% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TEN 17 – HOU 27 · HOU -10.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Texansspread · margin, last 10
HOU -7
HOU −10.8
3/9
at the line
bookHOUTEN
DK
Texanstotal · points in the game, last 10
39.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
HOU · 5
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Jake HummelLBDOUBTFULGroin
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU Pass attackTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +30 TEN -0.22 #31 HOU #1 -0.19
HOU Run block vs frontTEN offense · HOU defense FRONT +28 TEN 91 #31 HOU #3 93 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #9
HOU 3rd downTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +25 TEN 32% #32 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass yardsTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +22 TEN 191 #29 HOU #7 205
HOU Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · HOU defense RUSH +20 TEN 3.2 #29 HOU #9 2.6 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #10
HOU Run gameTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +19 TEN -0.06 #27 HOU #8 -0.05
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · TEN defense OFF +14 HOU +0.04 #15 TEN #29 +0.17
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · TEN defense LINE +13 HOU 2.0 #12 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · TEN defense OFF +12 HOU 233 #14 TEN #26 248
TEN Run gameHOU offense · TEN defense DEF +7 HOU -0.08 #30 TEN #23 +0.02
HOU Red zoneTEN offense · HOU defense DEF +4 TEN 61% #20 HOU #16 63%
TEN Run block vs frontHOU offense · TEN defense FRONT +4 HOU 111 #23 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
TEN 3rd downHOU offense · TEN defense DEF +3 HOU 38% #24 TEN #21 42%
TEN Red zoneHOU offense · TEN defense DEF +1 HOU 51% #31 TEN #30 71%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

HOU DEFENSE TEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 37% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TEN offense against what it runs into

TEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 HOU DEFENSE

TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.

-0.22 #31 Pass attack DEF +30 #1 -0.19
-0.06 #27 Run game DEF +19 #8 -0.05
191 #29 Pass yards DEF +22 #7 205
93 #30 Rush yards DEF +26 #4 94
3.3 #27 Pass pro vs rush DEF +20 #7 2.8
32% #32 3rd down DEF +25 #7 37%
61% #20 Red zone even #16 63%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TENpass pro rush +20 HOUpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk#10
Jadeveon Clowney OLB 8.5 sk#22
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
TENrun block front +28 HOUrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona
RTJC Latham98%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl#5
Tommy Togiai LDT 6.0 tfl#157
Sheldon Rankins RDT 5.0 tfl#186
Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl#9
Henry To'oTo'o WLB 9.0 tfl#54
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 93