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Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs ★ DIV · AFC WEST ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 2 – 8 KC
no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out    KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
KC win probability
ours 72% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LV 17 – KC 25 · KC -7.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chiefsspread · margin, last 10
KC -8.5
KAN −7.7
1/10
at the line
bookKANLV
DK
Chiefstotal · points in the game, last 10
40.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

17 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LV · 6
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Chigozie AnusiemCBOUTKnee · IR
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot
KC · 11
Garrett NussmeierQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jared WileyTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Mansoor DelaneCBOUTShoulder
Bryson EasonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Jack PyburnLBOUTCoach's Decision
Diego PoundsOTOUTCoach's Decision
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
Cooper McDonaldLBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
KC Run block vs frontLV offense · KC defense FRONT +25 LV 83 #32 KC #7 106
KC Red zoneLV offense · KC defense DEF +21 LV 56% #27 KC #6 55%
KC Run gameLV offense · KC defense DEF +21 LV -0.26 #32 KC #11 -0.04
KC Pass yardsLV offense · KC defense DEF +18 LV 195 #26 KC #8 205
LV Pass pro vs rushKC offense · LV defense RUSH +16 KC 2.8 #23 LV #7 2.8 Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk #15
KC Pass attackLV offense · KC defense DEF +14 LV -0.19 #29 KC #15 -0.00
LV Red zoneKC offense · LV defense DEF +14 KC 58% #25 LV #11 59%
LV Run block vs frontKC offense · LV defense FRONT +14 KC 107 #25 LV #11 111 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
6 more comparisons, gap under 14
KC Pass attackKC offense · LV defense OFF +8 KC +0.04 #14 LV #22 +0.08
KC Run gameKC offense · LV defense OFF +8 KC +0.03 #6 LV #14 -0.04
KC 3rd downKC offense · LV defense OFF +7 KC 38% #23 LV #30 47%
KC Pass pro vs rushLV offense · KC defense RUSH +3 LV 3.2 #27 KC #24 1.9
LV Pass yardsKC offense · LV defense DEF +3 KC 232 #16 LV #13 214
KC 3rd downLV offense · KC defense DEF +1 LV 34% #29 KC #28 44%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

KC DEFENSE LV OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 39% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LV offense against what it runs into

LV OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 KC DEFENSE
-0.19 #29 Pass attack DEF +14 #15 -0.00
-0.26 #32 Run game DEF +21 #11 -0.04
195 #26 Pass yards DEF +18 #8 205
77 #32 Rush yards DEF +23 #9 106
3.8 #32 Pass pro vs rush even #26 1.9
34% #29 3rd down even #28 44%
56% #27 Red zone DEF +21 #6 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LVpass pro even KCpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Chris Jones DE 7.0 sk#39
George Karlaftis DE 6.0 sk#53
Drue Tranquill LB 2.0 sk#204
3.2 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
LVrun block front +25 KCrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
George Karlaftis LDE 10.0 tfl#47
Chris Jones LDT 12.0 tfl#24
Khyiris Tonga RDT 2.0 tfl#362
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
Drue Tranquill WLB 10.0 tfl#40
83 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106