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Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos ★ DIV · AFC WEST ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAC 5 – 5 DEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR d · Derius Davis WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston    DEN Sam Ehlinger QB out · Tyler Badie RB out · Caleb Lohner TE out · Dallen Bentley TE out
DEN win probability
ours 61% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAC 19 – DEN 23 · DEN -3.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Broncosspread · margin, last 10
DEN -1.5
DEN −3.8
8/10
at the line
bookDENLAC
DK
Broncostotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRDOUBTFULHamstring
Derius DavisWRQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
DEN · 11
Sam EhlingerQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BadieRBOUTCoach's Decision
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
Dallen BentleyTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Jordan JacksonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler OnyedimDTOUTCoach's Decision
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kage CaseyOTOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · DEN defense RUSH +30 LAC 3.4 #31 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN Red zoneLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +29 LAC 52% #30 DEN #1 48%
DEN Pass attackLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +20 LAC -0.05 #26 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Run block vs frontLAC offense · DEN defense FRONT +14 LAC 117 #16 DEN #2 91
LAC Pass yardsDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +13 DEN 231 #17 LAC #4 195
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · LAC defense LINE +12 DEN 1.4 #3 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC Red zoneDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +12 DEN 63% #15 LAC #3 52%
LAC Run gameDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +12 DEN +0.00 #16 LAC #4 -0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
LAC 3rd downDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +5 DEN 43% #9 LAC #4 35%
LAC Run block vs frontDEN offense · LAC defense FRONT +5 DEN 119 #14 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
DEN Pass yardsLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +4 LAC 233 #15 DEN #11 212
DEN 3rd downLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +2 LAC 46% #4 DEN #2 34%
DEN Run gameLAC offense · DEN defense DEF +1 LAC +0.02 #11 DEN #10 -0.04
LAC Pass attackDEN offense · LAC defense DEF +0 DEN +0.08 #9 LAC #9 -0.09

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

DEN DEFENSE LAC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAC offense against what it runs into

LAC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 DEN DEFENSE

LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.

-0.05 #26 Pass attack DEF +20 #6 -0.12
+0.02 #11 Run game even #10 -0.04
233 #15 Pass yards even #11 212
122 #12 Rush yards DEF +10 #2 91
3.5 #30 Pass pro vs rush DEF +29 #1 4.0
46% #4 3rd down even #2 34%
52% #30 Red zone DEF +29 #1 48%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LACpass pro rush +30 DENpass rush
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB 8.0 sk#25
Zach Allen DE 7.0 sk#44
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
LACrun block front +14 DENrun D
LTRashawn Slater
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Zach Allen LDE 4.0 tfl#247
D.J. Jones NT 4.0 tfl#262
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE 5.0 tfl#186
Jonah Elliss WLB 5.0 tfl#189
Alex Singleton LILB 3.0 tfl#298
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91