Cleveland Browns
@
Cincinnati Bengals
DIV
MODEL CIN 62%
Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00
· Paycor Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 5 – 5 CIN
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CLE OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
CIN OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CLE OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#25 246
97 #27
Rush yards
even
#32 147
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
34% #28
3rd down
even
#27 44%
55% #28
Red zone
even
#26 69%
CIN OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +19
#4 -0.13
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#3 189
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +13
#16 116
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#3 3.1
44% #5
3rd down
even
#8 37%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +19
#20 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 3.1
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #28 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #29 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #28 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #28 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #28 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #28 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #4 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #5 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #4 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #4 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #4 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #4 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.