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Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals ★ DIV · AFC NORTH ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 5 – 5 CIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders
CIN win probability
ours 61% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CLE 22 – CIN 25 · CIN -3.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bengalsspread · margin, last 10
CIN -7.5
CIN −3.7
3/10
at the line
bookCINCLE
DK
Bengalstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
CLE · 9
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Dylan SampsonRBOUTKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CLE Pass attackCIN offense · CLE defense DEF +19 CIN -0.03 #23 CLE #4 -0.13
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · CLE defense OFF +19 CIN 76% #1 CLE #20 66%
CIN Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · CIN defense RUSH +18 CLE 3.3 #30 CIN #12 2.4
CLE Run block vs frontCIN offense · CLE defense FRONT +11 CIN 95 #29 CLE #18 118
CIN Pass yardsCLE offense · CIN defense DEF +6 CLE 185 #31 CIN #25 246
CIN Pass attackCLE offense · CIN defense DEF +4 CLE -0.29 #32 CIN #28 +0.16
CLE Pass yardsCIN offense · CLE defense DEF +4 CIN 250 #7 CLE #3 189
CLE Run gameCLE offense · CIN defense OFF +4 CLE -0.05 #25 CIN #29 +0.09
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · CLE defense OFF +3 CIN 44% #5 CLE #8 37%
CLE Run block vs frontCLE offense · CIN defense LINE +3 CLE 96 #27 CIN #30 139
CLE Run gameCIN offense · CLE defense DEF +3 CIN +0.02 #8 CLE #5 -0.05
CLE Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · CLE defense RUSH +2 CIN 1.9 #10 CLE #8 2.6
CIN Red zoneCLE offense · CIN defense DEF +2 CLE 55% #28 CIN #26 69%
CIN 3rd downCLE offense · CIN defense DEF +1 CLE 34% #28 CIN #27 44%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CIN DEFENSE CLE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CLE offense against what it runs into

CLE OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CIN DEFENSE

CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.

-0.29 #32 Pass attack even #28 +0.16
-0.05 #25 Run game even #29 +0.09
185 #31 Pass yards even #25 246
97 #27 Rush yards even #32 147
3.0 #26 Pass pro vs rush even #24 2.0
34% #28 3rd down even #27 44%
55% #28 Red zone even #26 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CLEpass pro rush +18 CINpass rush
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Myles Murphy DE 5.5 sk#60
B.J. Hill DE 4.0 sk#96
Jonathan Allen DE 3.5 sk#130
3.3 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
CLErun block even CINrun D
LTSpencer Fano
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Boye Mafe LDE 4.0 tfl#222
Dexter Lawrence II LDT 4.0 tfl#246
Jonathan Allen RDT 7.0 tfl#114
Myles Murphy RDE 6.0 tfl#127
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB 4.0 tfl#256
96 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139