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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: JAX 7 – 3 IND
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out    IND Riley Leonard QB out · DJ Giddens RB out · D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected JAX 24 – IND 25 · IND -0.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Coltsspread · margin, last 10
IND -1.5
IND −0.2
2/10
at the line
bookINDJAC
DK
Coltstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

20 designations · as of 4:00 PM
JAX · 10
Quinn EwersQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tanner KoziolTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Bryan Thomas Jr.DEOUTCoach's Decision
Wesley WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Daniel FaaleleGOUTCoach's Decision
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
Jalen HuskeySOUTCoach's Decision
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow
IND · 10
Riley LeonardQBOUTCoach's Decision
DJ GiddensRBOUTCoach's Decision
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Johnathan EdwardsCBOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton TuckerGOUTCoach's Decision
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
George Gumbs Jr.LBOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · JAX defense LINE +20 IND 1.7 #7 JAX #27 1.9
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · IND defense OFF +20 JAX 237 #11 IND #31 262
IND Red zoneIND offense · JAX defense OFF +18 IND 68% #7 JAX #25 68%
JAX Run block vs frontIND offense · JAX defense FRONT +16 IND 118 #17 JAX #1 86
IND Run block vs frontJAX offense · IND defense FRONT +13 JAX 115 #20 IND #7 102
IND Pass yardsIND offense · JAX defense OFF +11 IND 240 #8 JAX #19 231
IND Run gameIND offense · JAX defense OFF +10 IND +0.09 #3 JAX #13 -0.04
IND 3rd downIND offense · JAX defense OFF +9 IND 43% #7 JAX #16 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
JAX Pass attackIND offense · JAX defense DEF +9 IND +0.06 #12 JAX #3 -0.14
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · IND defense OFF +8 JAX 40% #18 IND #26 43%
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · IND defense OFF +8 JAX +0.06 #11 IND #19 +0.04
IND Run gameJAX offense · IND defense DEF +8 JAX -0.00 #17 IND #9 -0.05
IND Red zoneJAX offense · IND defense DEF +7 JAX 65% #12 IND #5 55%
IND Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · IND defense RUSH +5 JAX 2.4 #20 IND #15 2.3

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

IND DEFENSE JAX OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units JAX offense against what it runs into

JAX OFFENSE 2025 IND DEFENSE
+0.06 #11 Pass attack OFF +8 #19 +0.04
-0.00 #17 Run game DEF +8 #9 -0.05
237 #11 Pass yards OFF +20 #31 262
115 #20 Rush yards DEF +13 #7 102
2.4 #20 Pass pro vs rush even #16 2.3
40% #18 3rd down OFF +8 #26 43%
65% #12 Red zone even #5 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

JAXpass pro even INDpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Laiatu Latu DE 8.5 sk#20
Arden Key DE 4.0 sk#99
DeForest Buckner DT 4.0 sk#104
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
JAXrun block front +13 INDrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Arden Key LDE 6.0 tfl#150
Grover Stewart LDT 5.0 tfl#192
DeForest Buckner RDT 9.0 tfl#51
Laiatu Latu RDE 12.0 tfl#23
Jaylon Carlies WLB
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 102