Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Indianapolis Colts
DIV
MODEL IND 52%
Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00
· Lucas Oil Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 7 – 3 IND
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
IND OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +8
#19 +0.04
-0.01 #18
Run game
DEF +9
#9 -0.05
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +20
#31 262
115 #20
Rush yards
DEF +13
#7 102
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
40% #18
3rd down
OFF +8
#26 43%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#5 55%
IND OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
DEF +9
#3 -0.14
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +10
#13 -0.04
240 #8
Pass yards
OFF +11
#19 231
118 #17
Rush yards
DEF +16
#1 86
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +19
#27 1.9
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +10
#17 41%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +18
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 1.9
IND PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #19 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #9 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #19 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #19 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #19 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #19 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #3 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #13 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #3 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #3 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #3 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #3 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.