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Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders ★ DIV · NFC EAST ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DAL 8 – 2 WAS
no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out    WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 57% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DAL 25 – WAS 28 · WAS -2.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Commandersspread · margin, last 10
WAS +1.5
WAS −2.3
3/10
at the line
bookWASDAL
DK
Commanderstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 7:00 PM
DAL · 8
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
DJ RogersTEOUTKnee · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Matt HennessyCOUTNeck · IR
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Marist LiufauLBOUTForearm · IR
Malik HookerSDOUBTFULForearm
DeMarvion OvershownLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
WAS · 4
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · WAS defense OFF +27 DAL 279 #1 WAS #28 257
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · DAL defense OFF +27 WAS 70% #4 DAL #31 72%
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · WAS defense OFF +25 DAL +0.16 #5 WAS #30 +0.20
WAS Run gameWAS offense · DAL defense OFF +22 WAS +0.02 #9 DAL #31 +0.09
WAS Run block vs frontWAS offense · DAL defense LINE +21 WAS 134 #4 DAL #25 131
DAL Run block vs frontDAL offense · WAS defense LINE +19 DAL 119 #12 WAS #31 141
DAL 3rd downDAL offense · WAS defense OFF +15 DAL 43% #8 WAS #23 42%
WAS Pass attackWAS offense · DAL defense OFF +13 WAS -0.01 #18 DAL #31 +0.22
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
DAL Run gameDAL offense · WAS defense OFF +13 DAL +0.01 #15 WAS #28 +0.07
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · DAL defense LINE +12 WAS 2.0 #11 DAL #23 2.0
DAL Red zoneDAL offense · WAS defense OFF +11 DAL 62% #17 WAS #28 70%
WAS 3rd downWAS offense · DAL defense OFF +9 WAS 38% #22 DAL #31 48%
WAS Pass yardsWAS offense · DAL defense OFF +8 WAS 196 #24 DAL #32 266
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · WAS defense LINE +5 DAL 1.5 #5 WAS #10 2.6

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

WAS DEFENSE DAL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DAL offense against what it runs into

DAL OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC WAS DEFENSE

WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.

+0.16 #5 Pass attack OFF +25 #30 +0.20
+0.01 #15 Run game OFF +13 #28 +0.07
279 #1 Pass yards OFF +27 #28 257
126 #9 Rush yards OFF +21 #30 142
1.8 #11 Pass pro vs rush even #14 2.5
43% #8 3rd down OFF +15 #23 42%
62% #17 Red zone OFF +11 #28 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DALpass pro even WASpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 7.5 sk#32
Odafe Oweh LB 7.5 sk#33
Dorance Armstrong DE 5.5 sk#66
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
DALrun block line +19 WASrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Tim Settle LDE 3.0 tfl#290
Daron Payne NT 7.0 tfl#91
Javon Kinlaw RDE 5.0 tfl#193
Odafe Oweh WLB 9.0 tfl#62
Frankie Luvu LILB 5.0 tfl#185
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141