no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out · DJ Rogers TE out WAS Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 57%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DAL 25 – WAS 28 · WAS -2.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
WAS +1.5
WAS −2.3
3/10
—at the line
| book | WAS | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
49.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
12 designations · as of 7:00 PM
DAL · 8
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
| DJ Rogers | TE | OUT | Knee · IR |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Matt Hennessy | C | OUT | Neck · IR |
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Marist Liufau | LB | OUT | Forearm · IR |
| Malik Hooker | S | DOUBTFUL | Forearm |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
WAS · 4
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · WAS defense
DAL 279 #1
WAS #28 257
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · DAL defense
WAS 70% #4
DAL #31 72%
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · WAS defense
DAL +0.16 #5
WAS #30 +0.20
WAS
Run gameWAS offense · DAL defense
WAS +0.02 #9
DAL #31 +0.09
WAS
Run block vs frontWAS offense · DAL defense
WAS 134 #4
DAL #25 131
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · WAS defense
DAL 119 #12
WAS #31 141
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · WAS defense
DAL 43% #8
WAS #23 42%
WAS
Pass attackWAS offense · DAL defense
WAS -0.01 #18
DAL #31 +0.22
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
DAL
Run gameDAL offense · WAS defense
DAL +0.01 #15
WAS #28 +0.07
WAS
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · DAL defense
WAS 2.0 #11
DAL #23 2.0
DAL
Red zoneDAL offense · WAS defense
DAL 62% #17
WAS #28 70%
WAS
3rd downWAS offense · DAL defense
WAS 38% #22
DAL #31 48%
WAS
Pass yardsWAS offense · DAL defense
WAS 196 #24
DAL #32 266
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · WAS defense
DAL 1.5 #5
WAS #10 2.6
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +25
#30 +0.20
+0.01 #15
Run game
OFF +13
#28 +0.07
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +27
#28 257
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +21
#30 142
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +15
#23 42%
62% #17
Red zone
OFF +11
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
even
WASpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#32
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#33
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#66
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#10 2.6
DALrun block
line +19
WASrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#290
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#91
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#193
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#62
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#185
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 141
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
OFF +13
#31 +0.22
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +22
#31 +0.09
196 #24
Pass yards
OFF +8
#32 266
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +19
#23 125
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#25 2.0
38% #22
3rd down
OFF +9
#31 48%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +27
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
line +12
DALpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#31
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#64
2.0 #11sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
WASrun block
line +21
DALrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#47
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#295
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#132
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#114
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#514
134 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131