New York Jets
@
Buffalo Bills
DIV
MODEL BUF 77%
Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00
· Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
· a_turf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 2 – 8 BUF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
BUF OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +21
#7 -0.11
-0.06 #29
Run game
even
#30 +0.09
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +31
#1 170
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +18
#28 136
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#20 2.1
35% #27
3rd down
even
#24 42%
53% #29
Red zone
even
#24 68%
BUF OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +26
#32 +0.25
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +25
#26 +0.03
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#16 226
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +28
#29 139
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#31 1.5
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +9
#12 39%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +26
#29 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 1.5
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #7 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #30 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #7 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #7 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #7 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #7 PASS D
— rec y/g
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #32 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #26 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #32 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #32 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #32 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #32 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.