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New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Highmark Stadium · outdoors · a_turf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 2 – 8 BUF
no sides on this game yet · the record
NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams    BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 80% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYJ 19 – BUF 30 · BUF -11.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Billsspread · margin, last 10
BUF -10
BUF −11.1
3/10
at the line
bookBUFNYJ
DK
Billstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 11:45 PM
NYJ · 9
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSQUESTIONABLEGroin
BUF · 4
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF Pass yardsNYJ offense · BUF defense DEF +31 NYJ 164 #32 BUF #1 170
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +26 BUF +0.16 #6 NYJ #32 +0.25
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +26 BUF 72% #3 NYJ #29 70%
BUF Run gameBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +25 BUF +0.11 #1 NYJ #26 +0.03
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · BUF defense LINE +22 NYJ 126 #7 BUF #29 134
BUF Pass attackNYJ offense · BUF defense DEF +21 NYJ -0.18 #28 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · NYJ defense LINE +21 BUF 151 #3 NYJ #24 129
BUF Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · BUF defense RUSH +12 NYJ 3.0 #25 BUF #13 2.3
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +9 BUF 46% #3 NYJ #12 39%
BUF Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · NYJ defense LINE +9 BUF 2.3 #18 NYJ #27 1.9
BUF Red zoneNYJ offense · BUF defense DEF +5 NYJ 53% #29 BUF #24 68%
BUF 3rd downNYJ offense · BUF defense DEF +3 NYJ 35% #27 BUF #24 42%
BUF Pass yardsBUF offense · NYJ defense OFF +3 BUF 234 #13 NYJ #16 226
NYJ Run gameNYJ offense · BUF defense OFF +1 NYJ -0.06 #29 BUF #30 +0.09

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BUF DEFENSE NYJ OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYJ offense against what it runs into

NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BUF DEFENSE

NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.

-0.18 #28 Pass attack DEF +21 #7 -0.11
-0.06 #29 Run game even #30 +0.09
164 #32 Pass yards DEF +31 #1 170
123 #10 Rush yards OFF +18 #28 136
3.5 #29 Pass pro vs rush DEF +10 #19 2.1
35% #27 3rd down even #24 42%
53% #29 Red zone even #24 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYJpass pro rush +12 BUFpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Bradley Chubb OLB 8.5 sk#23
Greg Rousseau LB 7.0 sk#42
Ed Oliver DT 3.0 sk#155
3.0 #25sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
NYJrun block line +22 BUFrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
T.J. Sanders LDE 1.0 tfl#620
Deone Walker NT 8.0 tfl#73
Ed Oliver RDE 7.0 tfl#91
Greg Rousseau WLB 6.0 tfl#133
Dorian Williams LILB 1.0 tfl#608
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134