Chicago Bears
@
Minnesota Vikings
DIV
MODEL MIN 56%
Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00
· U.S. Bank Stadium (dome)
· sportturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 2 – 8 MIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CHI OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
MIN OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CHI OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
DEF +8
#2 -0.15
+0.08 #4
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
235 #12
Pass yards
DEF +10
#2 178
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +18
#21 124
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
43% #11
3rd down
DEF +8
#3 35%
66% #10
Red zone
DEF +8
#2 49%
MIN OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +12
#18 +0.03
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +8
#22 239
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#27 135
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#22 2.1
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +12
#19 41%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.1
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #2 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #6 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #2 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #2 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #2 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #2 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #18 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #19 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #18 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #18 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #18 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #18 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.