BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots ★ DIV · AFC EAST ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 7 – 3 NE
no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
NE win probability
ours 73% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 18 – NE 26 · NE -8.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Patriotsspread · margin, last 10
NE -10.5
NE −8.1
4/10
at the line
bookNEMIA
DK
Patriotstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE Pass attackNE offense · MIA defense OFF +25 NE +0.29 #1 MIA #26 +0.13
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · MIA defense LINE +20 NE 127 #6 MIA #26 132 Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #15
NE Pass yardsMIA offense · NE defense DEF +16 MIA 195 #25 NE #9 207
NE 3rd downMIA offense · NE defense DEF +15 MIA 35% #26 NE #11 39%
NE Pass yardsNE offense · MIA defense OFF +14 NE 262 #4 MIA #18 231
NE Run gameNE offense · MIA defense OFF +14 NE +0.01 #13 MIA #27 +0.04
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · NE defense OFF +13 MIA 64% #14 NE #27 69%
NE Run block vs frontMIA offense · NE defense FRONT +13 MIA 115 #19 NE #6 101
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
NE 3rd downNE offense · MIA defense OFF +12 NE 44% #6 MIA #18 41%
NE Red zoneNE offense · MIA defense OFF +10 NE 66% #9 MIA #19 66%
NE Pass attackMIA offense · NE defense DEF +9 MIA -0.01 #20 NE #11 -0.06
NE Pass pro vs rushNE offense · MIA defense LINE +6 NE 2.9 #24 MIA #30 1.8
NE Run gameMIA offense · NE defense DEF +6 MIA -0.03 #21 NE #15 -0.03
MIA Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · NE defense LINE +1 MIA 2.7 #21 NE #22 2.0

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

NE DEFENSE MIA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIA offense against what it runs into

MIA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NE DEFENSE

MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.

-0.01 #20 Pass attack DEF +9 #11 -0.06
-0.03 #21 Run game even #15 -0.03
195 #25 Pass yards DEF +16 #9 207
120 #13 Rush yards even #6 102
2.2 #16 Pass pro vs rush even #23 2.0
35% #26 3rd down DEF +15 #11 39%
64% #14 Red zone OFF +13 #27 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MIApass pro even NEpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Harold Landry III LB 8.5 sk#20
Dre'Mont Jones DE 7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT 3.5 sk#127
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
MIArun block front +13 NErun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Christian Barmore LDE 4.0 tfl#274
Cory Durden NT 5.0 tfl#178
Milton Williams RDE 8.0 tfl#69
Elijah Ponder WLB 4.0 tfl#263
Christian Elliss LILB
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101