no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out
NE win probability
ours 73%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIA 18 – NE 26 · NE -8.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NE -10.5
NE −8.1
4/10
—at the line
| book | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
42.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE
Pass attackNE offense · MIA defense
NE +0.29 #1
MIA #26 +0.13
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · MIA defense
NE 127 #6
MIA #26 132
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #15
NE
Pass yardsMIA offense · NE defense
MIA 195 #25
NE #9 207
NE
3rd downMIA offense · NE defense
MIA 35% #26
NE #11 39%
NE
Pass yardsNE offense · MIA defense
NE 262 #4
MIA #18 231
NE
Run gameNE offense · MIA defense
NE +0.01 #13
MIA #27 +0.04
MIA
Red zoneMIA offense · NE defense
MIA 64% #14
NE #27 69%
NE
Run block vs frontMIA offense · NE defense
MIA 115 #19
NE #6 101
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
NE
3rd downNE offense · MIA defense
NE 44% #6
MIA #18 41%
NE
Red zoneNE offense · MIA defense
NE 66% #9
MIA #19 66%
NE
Pass attackMIA offense · NE defense
MIA -0.01 #20
NE #11 -0.06
NE
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · MIA defense
NE 2.9 #24
MIA #30 1.8
NE
Run gameMIA offense · NE defense
MIA -0.03 #21
NE #15 -0.03
MIA
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · NE defense
MIA 2.7 #21
NE #22 2.0
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
DEF +9
#11 -0.06
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +16
#9 207
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#6 102
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
35% #26
3rd down
DEF +15
#11 39%
64% #14
Red zone
OFF +13
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
even
NEpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#20
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#127
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
MIArun block
front +13
NErun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#274
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#178
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#69
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#263
Christian Elliss LILB
—
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +25
#26 +0.13
+0.01 #13
Run game
OFF +14
#27 +0.04
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +14
#18 231
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +20
#26 132
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#15 2.3
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +12
#18 41%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +10
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
even
MIApass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#59
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#107
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#108
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
NErun block
line +20
MIArun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#261
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#449
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#41
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#364
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#15
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132