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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 6 – 4 NO
no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III    NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out
NO win probability
ours 49% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TB 23 – NO 22 · TB -0.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Saintsspread · margin, last 10
NO +1.5
NO +0.4
6/10
at the line
bookNOTB
DK
Saintstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
TB · 7
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack
NO · 8
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
5 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
TB Run gameNO offense · TB defense DEF +28 NO -0.10 #31 TB #3 -0.07
TB Run block vs frontNO offense · TB defense FRONT +25 NO 94 #30 TB #5 100
NO Pass yardsNO offense · TB defense OFF +17 NO 237 #10 TB #27 255
NO Pass yardsTB offense · NO defense DEF +14 TB 221 #19 NO #5 196
NO Pass attackTB offense · NO defense DEF +10 TB -0.03 #22 NO #12 -0.05
NO Run gameTB offense · NO defense DEF +10 TB +0.01 #12 NO #2 -0.07
NO 3rd downTB offense · NO defense DEF +8 TB 42% #13 NO #5 36%
TB Pass attackNO offense · TB defense DEF +7 NO -0.08 #27 TB #20 +0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
TB 3rd downNO offense · TB defense DEF +6 NO 40% #19 TB #13 40%
NO Red zoneTB offense · NO defense DEF +4 TB 62% #19 NO #15 62%
NO Pass pro vs rushTB offense · NO defense RUSH +3 TB 2.5 #19 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
TB Pass pro vs rushNO offense · TB defense RUSH +2 NO 3.2 #28 TB #26 1.9 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
TB Run block vs frontTB offense · NO defense LINE +1 TB 112 #22 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
TB Red zoneNO offense · TB defense DEF +0 NO 50% #32 TB #32 74%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

NO DEFENSE TB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TB offense against what it runs into

TB OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NO DEFENSE

TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.

-0.03 #22 Pass attack DEF +10 #12 -0.05
+0.01 #12 Run game DEF +10 #2 -0.07
221 #19 Pass yards DEF +14 #5 196
115 #21 Rush yards even #19 121
2.2 #17 Pass pro vs rush even #11 2.6
42% #13 3rd down DEF +8 #5 36%
62% #19 Red zone even #15 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TBpass pro even NOpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE 10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE 6.0 sk#51
2.5 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
TBrun block even NOrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT 2.0 tfl#429
Colby Wooden RDE 6.0 tfl#134
Carl Granderson WLB 11.0 tfl#29
Kaden Elliss LILB 10.0 tfl#45
112 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127