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Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00 · Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 4 – 6 CAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out    CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 65% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 20 – CAR 25 · CAR -5.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Panthersspread · margin, last 10
CAR -2.5
CAR −5.0
4/10
at the line
bookCARATL
DK
Pantherstotal · points in the game, last 10
41.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · CAR defense LINE +23 ATL 125 #9 CAR #32 148
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · CAR defense LINE +20 ATL 1.9 #9 CAR #29 1.8
ATL Pass attackCAR offense · ATL defense DEF +12 CAR -0.05 #25 ATL #13 -0.03
ATL Pass yardsCAR offense · ATL defense DEF +12 CAR 194 #27 ATL #15 222
ATL Red zoneCAR offense · ATL defense DEF +11 CAR 59% #24 ATL #13 62%
ATL 3rd downCAR offense · ATL defense DEF +10 CAR 36% #25 ATL #15 40%
ATL Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · ATL defense RUSH +8 CAR 2.0 #13 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
CAR Pass yardsATL offense · CAR defense DEF +6 ATL 218 #20 CAR #14 215
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
ATL Pass attackATL offense · CAR defense OFF +3 ATL -0.01 #21 CAR #24 +0.11
CAR Run gameCAR offense · ATL defense OFF +3 CAR -0.03 #22 ATL #25 +0.03
ATL 3rd downATL offense · CAR defense OFF +2 ATL 34% #30 CAR #32 48%
CAR Red zoneATL offense · CAR defense DEF +1 ATL 65% #13 CAR #12 60%
CAR Run block vs frontCAR offense · ATL defense LINE +1 CAR 117 #15 ATL #16 116
ATL Run gameATL offense · CAR defense OFF +1 ATL -0.03 #23 CAR #24 +0.02

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CAR DEFENSE ATL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ATL offense against what it runs into

ATL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CAR DEFENSE

ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.

-0.01 #21 Pass attack even #24 +0.11
-0.03 #23 Run game even #24 +0.02
218 #20 Pass yards even #14 215
126 #8 Rush yards OFF +12 #20 123
1.5 #4 Pass pro vs rush OFF +26 #30 1.8
34% #30 3rd down even #32 48%
65% #13 Red zone even #12 60%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ATLpass pro line +20 CARpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Tyrel Dodson LB 5.0 sk#67
Derrick Brown DT 5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB 5.0 sk#75
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
ATLrun block line +23 CARrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Derrick Brown LDE 5.0 tfl#199
Lee Hunter NT
Bobby Brown III RDE 3.0 tfl#307
Patrick Jones II WLB 2.0 tfl#446
Devin Lloyd LILB 6.0 tfl#160
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148