no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 65%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 20 – CAR 25 · CAR -5.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CAR -2.5
CAR −5.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | CAR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
41.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
CAR · 2
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · CAR defense
ATL 125 #9
CAR #32 148
ATL
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · CAR defense
ATL 1.9 #9
CAR #29 1.8
ATL
Pass attackCAR offense · ATL defense
CAR -0.05 #25
ATL #13 -0.03
ATL
Pass yardsCAR offense · ATL defense
CAR 194 #27
ATL #15 222
ATL
Red zoneCAR offense · ATL defense
CAR 59% #24
ATL #13 62%
ATL
3rd downCAR offense · ATL defense
CAR 36% #25
ATL #15 40%
ATL
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · ATL defense
CAR 2.0 #13
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
CAR
Pass yardsATL offense · CAR defense
ATL 218 #20
CAR #14 215
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
ATL
Pass attackATL offense · CAR defense
ATL -0.01 #21
CAR #24 +0.11
CAR
Run gameCAR offense · ATL defense
CAR -0.03 #22
ATL #25 +0.03
ATL
3rd downATL offense · CAR defense
ATL 34% #30
CAR #32 48%
CAR
Red zoneATL offense · CAR defense
ATL 65% #13
CAR #12 60%
CAR
Run block vs frontCAR offense · ATL defense
CAR 117 #15
ATL #16 116
ATL
Run gameATL offense · CAR defense
ATL -0.03 #23
CAR #24 +0.02
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#14 215
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +12
#20 123
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +26
#30 1.8
34% #30
3rd down
even
#32 48%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
line +20
CARpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#67
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#75
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
ATLrun block
line +23
CARrun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#199
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#307
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#446
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#160
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +12
#13 -0.03
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +12
#15 222
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#2 3.4
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +10
#15 40%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +11
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
rush +8
ATLpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#24
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#56
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
CARrun block
even
ATLrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#90
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#136
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#31
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#395
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116