Atlanta Falcons
@
Carolina Panthers
DIV
MODEL CAR 53%
Week 18 · 2027-01-10 · 13:00
· Bank of America Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 4 – 6 CAR
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ATL OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
CAR OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ATL OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
-0.03 #23
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
218 #20
Pass yards
even
#14 215
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +12
#20 123
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#28 1.8
34% #30
3rd down
even
#32 48%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#12 60%
CAR OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +12
#13 -0.03
-0.03 #22
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +12
#15 222
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#24 126
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#2 3.4
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +10
#15 40%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +11
#13 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 3.4
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #24 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #24 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #24 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #24 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #24 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #24 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #13 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #25 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #13 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #13 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #13 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #13 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.