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Week 15 · 2026-12-19 · 17:00 · Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SEA 1 – 0 PHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock    PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 53% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 21 – PHI 22 · PHI -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Eaglesspread · margin, last 10
PHI -1.25
PHI −1.0
5/10
at the line
bookPHISEA
DK
CZR
Eaglestotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

9 designations · as of 11:45 PM
SEA · 4
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULLower Body
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring
PHI · 5
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Landon DickersonGOUTKnee
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA 3rd downPHI offense · SEA defense DEF +20 PHI 38% #21 SEA #1 33%
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · PHI defense LINE +13 SEA 1.7 #6 PHI #19 2.1
SEA Run gamePHI offense · SEA defense DEF +13 PHI +0.01 #14 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · PHI defense OFF +12 SEA 43% #10 PHI #22 42%
SEA Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · SEA defense RUSH +11 PHI 2.2 #17 SEA #6 2.8
SEA Pass yardsPHI offense · SEA defense DEF +11 PHI 206 #23 SEA #12 213
SEA Run block vs frontSEA offense · PHI defense LINE +11 SEA 120 #11 PHI #22 126
PHI Run gameSEA offense · PHI defense DEF +10 SEA -0.05 #26 PHI #16 -0.02
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
SEA Run block vs frontPHI offense · SEA defense FRONT +9 PHI 119 #13 SEA #4 94
PHI Red zoneSEA offense · PHI defense DEF +8 SEA 62% #18 PHI #10 59%
SEA Pass attackPHI offense · SEA defense DEF +5 PHI +0.04 #13 SEA #8 -0.10
PHI Pass attackSEA offense · PHI defense DEF +3 SEA +0.11 #8 PHI #5 -0.12
PHI Pass yardsSEA offense · PHI defense DEF +3 SEA 239 #9 PHI #6 204
PHI Red zonePHI offense · SEA defense OFF +2 PHI 74% #2 SEA #4 54%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

PHI DEFENSE SEA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SEA offense against what it runs into

SEA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 PHI DEFENSE

SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.

+0.11 #8 Pass attack even #5 -0.12
-0.05 #26 Run game DEF +10 #16 -0.02
239 #9 Pass yards even #6 204
123 #11 Rush yards OFF +11 #22 124
1.6 #5 Pass pro vs rush even #12 2.5
43% #10 3rd down OFF +12 #22 42%
62% #18 Red zone DEF +8 #10 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SEApass pro line +13 PHIpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Jalyx Hunt LB 6.5 sk#47
Moro Ojomo DT 6.0 sk#51
Jordan Davis DT 4.5 sk#84
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
SEArun block line +11 PHIrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Jalen Carter LDE 5.0 tfl#186
Moro Ojomo RDE 6.0 tfl#134
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB 1.0 tfl#633
Zack Baun LILB 7.0 tfl#96
Jihaad Campbell RILB 2.0 tfl#454
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126