no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 53%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 21 – PHI 22 · PHI -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PHI -1.25
PHI −1.0
5/10
—at the line
| book | PHI | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
9 designations · as of 11:45 PM
SEA · 4
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Lower Body |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
3rd downPHI offense · SEA defense
PHI 38% #21
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · PHI defense
SEA 1.7 #6
PHI #19 2.1
SEA
Run gamePHI offense · SEA defense
PHI +0.01 #14
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · PHI defense
SEA 43% #10
PHI #22 42%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · SEA defense
PHI 2.2 #17
SEA #6 2.8
SEA
Pass yardsPHI offense · SEA defense
PHI 206 #23
SEA #12 213
SEA
Run block vs frontSEA offense · PHI defense
SEA 120 #11
PHI #22 126
PHI
Run gameSEA offense · PHI defense
SEA -0.05 #26
PHI #16 -0.02
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
SEA
Run block vs frontPHI offense · SEA defense
PHI 119 #13
SEA #4 94
PHI
Red zoneSEA offense · PHI defense
SEA 62% #18
PHI #10 59%
SEA
Pass attackPHI offense · SEA defense
PHI +0.04 #13
SEA #8 -0.10
PHI
Pass attackSEA offense · PHI defense
SEA +0.11 #8
PHI #5 -0.12
PHI
Pass yardsSEA offense · PHI defense
SEA 239 #9
PHI #6 204
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · SEA defense
PHI 74% #2
SEA #4 54%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
-0.05 #26
Run game
DEF +10
#16 -0.02
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#6 204
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +11
#22 124
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +12
#22 42%
62% #18
Red zone
DEF +8
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +13
PHIpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#47
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#51
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#84
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
SEArun block
line +11
PHIrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#186
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#134
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#633
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#96
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#454
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
even
#8 -0.10
+0.01 #14
Run game
DEF +13
#1 -0.15
206 #23
Pass yards
DEF +11
#12 213
117 #18
Rush yards
DEF +15
#3 92
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
38% #21
3rd down
DEF +20
#1 33%
74% #2
Red zone
even
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
rush +11
SEApass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#40
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#42
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#52
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
PHIrun block
front +9
SEArun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#61
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#99
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#280
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#28
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#40
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94