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Week 15 · 2026-12-19 · 20:20 · Highmark Stadium · outdoors · a_turf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 0 – 1 BUF
no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out    BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 66% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 24 – BUF 29 · BUF -5.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Billsspread · margin, last 10
BUF -3.75
BUF −5.3
6/10
at the line
bookBUFCHI
DK
CZR
Billstotal · points in the game, last 10
51.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin
BUF · 4
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · BUF defense LINE +27 CHI 161 #2 BUF #29 134
CHI Run gameCHI offense · BUF defense OFF +26 CHI +0.08 #4 BUF #30 +0.09
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · CHI defense LINE +24 BUF 151 #3 CHI #27 133
BUF Run gameBUF offense · CHI defense OFF +18 BUF +0.11 #1 CHI #19 +0.00
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · CHI defense OFF +16 BUF 46% #3 CHI #19 41%
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · CHI defense OFF +15 BUF 72% #3 CHI #18 65%
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · BUF defense OFF +14 CHI 66% #10 BUF #24 68%
CHI 3rd downCHI offense · BUF defense OFF +13 CHI 43% #11 BUF #24 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · CHI defense OFF +12 BUF +0.16 #6 CHI #18 +0.03
BUF Pass yardsCHI offense · BUF defense DEF +11 CHI 235 #12 BUF #1 170
CHI Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · BUF defense LINE +9 CHI 1.5 #4 BUF #13 2.3
BUF Pass yardsBUF offense · CHI defense OFF +9 BUF 234 #13 CHI #22 239
BUF Pass attackCHI offense · BUF defense DEF +3 CHI +0.08 #10 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · CHI defense LINE +2 BUF 2.3 #18 CHI #20 2.0

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BUF DEFENSE CHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CHI offense against what it runs into

CHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BUF DEFENSE

CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.

+0.08 #10 Pass attack even #7 -0.11
+0.08 #4 Run game OFF +26 #30 +0.09
235 #12 Pass yards DEF +11 #1 170
144 #3 Rush yards OFF +25 #28 136
1.4 #3 Pass pro vs rush OFF +16 #19 2.1
43% #11 3rd down OFF +13 #24 42%
66% #10 Red zone OFF +14 #24 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CHIpass pro line +9 BUFpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Bradley Chubb OLB 8.5 sk#21
Greg Rousseau LB 7.0 sk#37
Ed Oliver DT 3.0 sk#159
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
CHIrun block line +27 BUFrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
T.J. Sanders LDE 1.0 tfl#573
Deone Walker NT 8.0 tfl#75
Ed Oliver RDE 7.0 tfl#117
Greg Rousseau WLB 6.0 tfl#128
Dorian Williams LILB 1.0 tfl#557
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134