Chicago Bears
@
Buffalo Bills
MODEL BUF 63%
Week 15 · 2026-12-19 · 20:20
· Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
· a_turf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 0 – 1 BUF
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CHI OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
BUF OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CHI OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +26
#30 +0.09
235 #12
Pass yards
DEF +11
#1 170
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +25
#28 136
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +17
#20 2.1
43% #11
3rd down
OFF +13
#24 42%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +14
#24 68%
BUF OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +12
#18 +0.03
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +18
#19 +0.00
234 #13
Pass yards
OFF +9
#22 239
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +26
#27 135
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +16
#19 41%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +15
#18 65%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.1
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #7 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #30 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #7 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #7 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #7 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #7 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #18 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #19 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #18 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #18 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #18 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #18 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.