no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 66%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 24 – BUF 29 · BUF -5.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BUF -3.75
BUF −5.3
6/10
—at the line
| book | BUF | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
51.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM
CHI · 6
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
BUF · 4
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · BUF defense
CHI 161 #2
BUF #29 134
CHI
Run gameCHI offense · BUF defense
CHI +0.08 #4
BUF #30 +0.09
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · CHI defense
BUF 151 #3
CHI #27 133
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · CHI defense
BUF +0.11 #1
CHI #19 +0.00
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · CHI defense
BUF 46% #3
CHI #19 41%
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · CHI defense
BUF 72% #3
CHI #18 65%
CHI
Red zoneCHI offense · BUF defense
CHI 66% #10
BUF #24 68%
CHI
3rd downCHI offense · BUF defense
CHI 43% #11
BUF #24 42%
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · CHI defense
BUF +0.16 #6
CHI #18 +0.03
BUF
Pass yardsCHI offense · BUF defense
CHI 235 #12
BUF #1 170
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · BUF defense
CHI 1.5 #4
BUF #13 2.3
BUF
Pass yardsBUF offense · CHI defense
BUF 234 #13
CHI #22 239
BUF
Pass attackCHI offense · BUF defense
CHI +0.08 #10
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · CHI defense
BUF 2.3 #18
CHI #20 2.0
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +26
#30 +0.09
235 #12
Pass yards
DEF +11
#1 170
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +25
#28 136
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#19 2.1
43% #11
3rd down
OFF +13
#24 42%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +14
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
line +9
BUFpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#23
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#42
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#155
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.3
CHIrun block
line +27
BUFrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#620
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#73
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#91
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#133
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#608
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 134
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CHI DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +12
#18 +0.03
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +18
#19 +0.00
234 #13
Pass yards
OFF +9
#22 239
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +26
#27 135
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +16
#19 41%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +15
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
even
CHIpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#85
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#111
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
BUFrun block
line +24
CHIrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#16
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#550
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#286
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#414
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#118
151 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133