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Week 15 · 2026-12-21 · 20:15 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 0 – 1 KC
no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out    KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
KC win probability
ours 56% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 20 – KC 22 · KC -2.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chiefsspread · margin, last 10
KC -2.75
KAN −2.1
2/10
at the line
bookKANNE
DK
CZR
Chiefstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed
KC · 11
Garrett NussmeierQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jared WileyTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Mansoor DelaneCBOUTShoulder
Bryson EasonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Jack PyburnLBOUTCoach's Decision
Diego PoundsOTOUTCoach's Decision
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
Cooper McDonaldLBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE 3rd downNE offense · KC defense OFF +22 NE 44% #6 KC #28 44%
NE Run block vs frontKC offense · NE defense FRONT +19 KC 107 #25 NE #6 101
NE Pass attackNE offense · KC defense OFF +14 NE +0.29 #1 KC #15 -0.00
NE 3rd downKC offense · NE defense DEF +12 KC 38% #23 NE #11 39%
KC Run gameKC offense · NE defense OFF +9 KC +0.03 #6 NE #15 -0.03
NE Pass yardsKC offense · NE defense DEF +7 KC 232 #16 NE #9 207
NE Pass yardsNE offense · KC defense OFF +4 NE 262 #4 KC #8 205
NE Pass attackKC offense · NE defense DEF +3 KC +0.04 #14 NE #11 -0.06
6 more comparisons, gap under 3
KC Red zoneNE offense · KC defense DEF +3 NE 66% #9 KC #6 55%
KC Red zoneKC offense · NE defense OFF +2 KC 58% #25 NE #27 69%
KC Run gameNE offense · KC defense DEF +2 NE +0.01 #13 KC #11 -0.04
NE Pass pro vs rushKC offense · NE defense RUSH +1 KC 2.8 #23 NE #22 2.0
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · KC defense LINE +1 NE 127 #6 KC #7 106
KC Pass pro vs rushNE offense · KC defense RUSH +0 NE 2.9 #24 KC #24 1.9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

KC DEFENSE NE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 46% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NE offense against what it runs into

NE OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 KC DEFENSE
+0.29 #1 Pass attack OFF +14 #15 -0.00
+0.01 #13 Run game even #11 -0.04
262 #4 Pass yards even #8 205
129 #6 Rush yards even #9 106
2.8 #24 Pass pro vs rush even #26 1.9
44% #6 3rd down OFF +22 #28 44%
66% #9 Red zone even #6 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NEpass pro even KCpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Chris Jones DE 7.0 sk#45
George Karlaftis DE 6.0 sk#50
Drue Tranquill LB 2.0 sk#240
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
NErun block even KCrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
George Karlaftis LDE 10.0 tfl#46
Chris Jones LDT 12.0 tfl#20
Khyiris Tonga RDT 2.0 tfl#420
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
Drue Tranquill WLB 10.0 tfl#50
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106