no sides on this game yet · the record
NE TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
KC win probability
ours 56%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NE 20 – KC 22 · KC -2.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
KC -2.75
KAN −2.1
2/10
—at the line
| book | KAN | NE |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NE · 4
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
KC · 11
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jared Wiley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mansoor Delane | CB | OUT | Shoulder |
| Bryson Eason | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jack Pyburn | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Diego Pounds | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
| Cooper McDonald | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE
3rd downNE offense · KC defense
NE 44% #6
KC #28 44%
NE
Run block vs frontKC offense · NE defense
KC 107 #25
NE #6 101
NE
Pass attackNE offense · KC defense
NE +0.29 #1
KC #15 -0.00
NE
3rd downKC offense · NE defense
KC 38% #23
NE #11 39%
KC
Run gameKC offense · NE defense
KC +0.03 #6
NE #15 -0.03
NE
Pass yardsKC offense · NE defense
KC 232 #16
NE #9 207
NE
Pass yardsNE offense · KC defense
NE 262 #4
KC #8 205
NE
Pass attackKC offense · NE defense
KC +0.04 #14
NE #11 -0.06
6 more comparisons, gap under 3
KC
Red zoneNE offense · KC defense
NE 66% #9
KC #6 55%
KC
Red zoneKC offense · NE defense
KC 58% #25
NE #27 69%
KC
Run gameNE offense · KC defense
NE +0.01 #13
KC #11 -0.04
NE
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · NE defense
KC 2.8 #23
NE #22 2.0
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · KC defense
NE 127 #6
KC #7 106
KC
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · KC defense
NE 2.9 #24
KC #24 1.9
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +14
#15 -0.00
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#8 205
129 #6
Rush yards
even
#9 106
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#26 1.9
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +22
#28 44%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
even
KCpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#45
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#50
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#240
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
NErun block
even
KCrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#46
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#20
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#420
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#50
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +9
#15 -0.03
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#9 207
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +19
#6 102
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
38% #23
3rd down
DEF +12
#11 39%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
even
NEpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#20
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#120
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.0
KCrun block
front +19
NErun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#251
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#172
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#82
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#225
Christian Elliss LILB
—
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101