San Francisco 49ers
@
Los Angeles Chargers
MODEL LAC 53%
Week 15 · 2026-12-17 · 20:15
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 1 – 0 LAC
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
SF OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
LAC OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
SF OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
-0.00 #17
Run game
DEF +13
#4 -0.07
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#4 195
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +16
#8 105
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
51% #1
3rd down
even
#4 35%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#3 52%
LAC OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
+0.02 #11
Run game
OFF +11
#22 +0.01
233 #15
Pass yards
OFF +8
#23 242
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#11 108
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#32 1.2
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +16
#20 41%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +16
#14 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
SF PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 1.2
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #9 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #4 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #9 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #9 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #9 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #9 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #25 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #22 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #25 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #25 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #25 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #25 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.