no sides on this game yet · the record
SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 48%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 23 – LAC 22 · SF -0.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAC -2.5
LAC +0.8
6/10
—at the line
| book | LAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.5
held
1/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 3:45 PM
SF · 3
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
LAC · 8
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ribs |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Branson Taylor | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · SF defense
LAC 46% #4
SF #20 41%
SF
Red zoneLAC offense · SF defense
LAC 52% #30
SF #14 62%
LAC
Run gameSF offense · LAC defense
SF -0.00 #18
LAC #4 -0.07
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · LAC defense
SF 1.3 #2
LAC #15 2.3
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC
Run block vs frontSF offense · LAC defense
SF 114 #20
LAC #9 107
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC
Run gameLAC offense · SF defense
LAC +0.02 #11
SF #22 +0.01
LAC
Pass yardsLAC offense · SF defense
LAC 233 #15
SF #23 242
SF
Run block vs frontLAC offense · SF defense
LAC 117 #16
SF #10 110
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
LAC
Red zoneSF offense · LAC defense
SF 68% #8
LAC #3 52%
SF
3rd downSF offense · LAC defense
SF 51% #1
LAC #4 35%
SF
Pass attackSF offense · LAC defense
SF +0.16 #7
LAC #9 -0.09
LAC
Pass yardsSF offense · LAC defense
SF 254 #6
LAC #4 195
SF
Pass attackLAC offense · SF defense
LAC -0.05 #26
SF #25 +0.11
LAC
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · SF defense
LAC 3.4 #31
SF #32 0.9
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#9 -0.09
-0.00 #18
Run game
DEF +14
#4 -0.07
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#4 195
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +16
#8 105
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#10 2.6
51% #1
3rd down
even
#4 35%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
line +13
LACpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#51
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#65
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
SFrun block
front +11
LACrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#209
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#294
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#164
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#204
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
+0.02 #11
Run game
OFF +11
#22 +0.01
233 #15
Pass yards
OFF +8
#23 242
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#11 108
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
even
#32 1.2
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +16
#20 41%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +16
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
even
SFpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#124
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#157
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#273
3.4 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
LACrun block
even
SFrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#422
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#137
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#232
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#369
117 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110