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Week 15 · 2026-12-17 · 20:15 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: SF 1 – 0 LAC
no sides on this game yet · the record
SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q    LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 48% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SF 23 – LAC 22 · SF -0.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chargersspread · margin, last 10
LAC -2.5
LAC +0.8
6/10
at the line
bookLACSF
DK
CZR
Chargerstotal · points in the game, last 10
47.5
held
1/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 3:45 PM
SF · 3
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR
LAC · 8
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLERibs
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Branson TaylorGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · SF defense OFF +16 LAC 46% #4 SF #20 41%
SF Red zoneLAC offense · SF defense DEF +16 LAC 52% #30 SF #14 62%
LAC Run gameSF offense · LAC defense DEF +14 SF -0.00 #18 LAC #4 -0.07
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · LAC defense LINE +13 SF 1.3 #2 LAC #15 2.3 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC Run block vs frontSF offense · LAC defense FRONT +11 SF 114 #20 LAC #9 107 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #4
LAC Run gameLAC offense · SF defense OFF +11 LAC +0.02 #11 SF #22 +0.01
LAC Pass yardsLAC offense · SF defense OFF +8 LAC 233 #15 SF #23 242
SF Run block vs frontLAC offense · SF defense FRONT +6 LAC 117 #16 SF #10 110
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
LAC Red zoneSF offense · LAC defense DEF +5 SF 68% #8 LAC #3 52%
SF 3rd downSF offense · LAC defense OFF +3 SF 51% #1 LAC #4 35%
SF Pass attackSF offense · LAC defense OFF +2 SF +0.16 #7 LAC #9 -0.09
LAC Pass yardsSF offense · LAC defense DEF +2 SF 254 #6 LAC #4 195
SF Pass attackLAC offense · SF defense DEF +1 LAC -0.05 #26 SF #25 +0.11
LAC Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · SF defense LINE +1 LAC 3.4 #31 SF #32 0.9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

LAC DEFENSE SF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SF offense against what it runs into

SF OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC LAC DEFENSE

LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.

+0.16 #7 Pass attack even #9 -0.09
-0.00 #18 Run game DEF +14 #4 -0.07
254 #6 Pass yards even #4 195
107 #24 Rush yards DEF +16 #8 105
1.6 #6 Pass pro vs rush even #10 2.6
51% #1 3rd down even #4 35%
68% #8 Red zone even #3 52%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SFpass pro line +13 LACpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT 6.0 sk#51
Khalil Mack OLB 5.5 sk#65
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
SFrun block front +11 LACrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Teair Tart LDE 4.0 tfl#209
Dalvin Tomlinson NT 3.0 tfl#294
Jamaree Caldwell RDE 5.0 tfl#164
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl#4
Daiyan Henley LILB 5.0 tfl#204
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#9 107